“Even if early votes are not additive to totals on Nov. 3, getting Democrats to cast votes now may be the most successful anti-suppression voting effort the party has ever waged.”
Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post
In 2016 Montana went for Trump over Clinton by 20 points with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson capturing five percent of the vote. Siena College/NYT (A+) has a new poll out today showing Biden within single digits of Trump. Only two Democratic presidential nominees have won the Treasure State since 1948 (Clinton in 1992 and Johnson in 1964). However, Montana has had more of a Democratic tradition than other red states (such as Kansas, as we discussed yesterday). From 1961 to 19777 Montana Senator Mike Mansfield (D) was Majority Leader and a strong advocate for environmental legislation. More recently, the state has elected Jon Tester twice to the Senate and Steve Bullock as Governor. This year, Bullock is running a close race to beat incumbent GOP Senator Steve Daines. Today’s Siena poll shows Bullock three points behind Daines.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average in Montana is Trump +7.7 points. That’s the closest it’s been in this entire cycle, but not by much. This single digit advantage for Trump has been fairly consistent for several months. There has not been a whole lot of polling in Big Sky Country, but there has been more than is some other states. This might be due to Bullock entering the Senate race on the last day to do so after abandoning his presidential bid. The former governor’s entry into the race immediately made it competitive and enticed pollsters to pay attention. The Siena poll’s finding is consistent with previous polling in this race. It is close, but Daines has a slight edge.
From this point through November 3rd, I will be quite busy with GOTV and voter protection tasks. As a consequence, I will have less time to devote to blogging. That said, I plan to release a post each day that will highlight voter protection/suppression issues (thanks to Democracy Docket and Fair Fight) and follow the polling averages, forecasting, and early voting numbers. I will also try to add some volunteer opportunities should you want to avail yourselves of them. For today, I’ll just say this on that last point: If you have not already done so, go to Mobilize.us, set up an account, and search for volunteer opportunities. There’s a lot going on and when it comes to phone and text banking you can do for any place or race in the country remotely from your home.
Today’s Voter Protection News from Democracy Docket:
New Jersey: Yesterday, a New Jersey court granted our motion to dismiss Trump and the Republicans' lawsuit attacking vote by mail. The lawsuit challenged Governor Murphy’s plan to use a hybrid voting model in November. We intervened as defendants on behalf of the DCCC and won.
North Carolina: After months of litigation and struggle, we finally won our Four Pillars case in North Carolina. On Monday, the North Carolina Court of Appeals dissolved the Republicans’ temporary stay of our agreement with the State Board, which extended the ballot receipt deadline, allowed ballot drop-off stations at each early voting location and county board, and instituted revised cure guidance. The next day, the Fourth Circuit denied both of the Republicans’ federal emergency injunction motions, and upheld the State Board’s extension of the receipt deadline. Republicans appealed both the decisions to the North Carolina Supreme Court and the U.S. Supreme Court. We will continue to defend voting rights in both cases.
Pennsylvania: On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court denied the Pennsylvania Republicans’ emergency application for a stay. Their 4-4 decision preserved the win in our complimentary Pennsylvania Four Pillars case, keeping the 3-day extension of the ballot receipt deadline.
Pennsylvania: Yesterday, we intervened in another Republican attack on voting rights in Pennsylvania. Two Republican congressional candidates sued to invoke a non-existent right to poll watch in satellite early voting sites. They also asked for the ability to challenge 28,000 voters even though the challenge process for mail-in and absentee ballots was specifically abolished by the Pennsylvania Legislature earlier this year. We intervened as defendants on behalf of the DCCC and the Democratic incumbent in the district, Representative Lamb.
South Carolina: We filed a new lawsuit this week, challenging South Carolina’s failure to inform voters when their ballots are rejected without any opportunity to correct or “cure” the mistake.
Today’s numbers:
Polling Averages
FiveThirtyEight: Biden +9.8 (no change)
The Upshot: Biden +9.0 (no change)
Real Clear Politics: Biden +7.9 (no change)
Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight (probabilities of winning EC): Biden 87%, Trump 12% (No change)
The Economist (probabilities of winning EC): Biden 92%, Trump 8% (slight change towards Trump)
The Upshot (probable EV totals): Biden 357 EVs, Trump 181 EVs (no change)
Total Early Votes: 52,643,908 (This represents 40% of the entire 2016 turnout)
Mail Ballots: 36,443,591
In-Person Votes: 16,200,317