“Voters thought they’d settled Louisiana’s congressional seats last fall, but only a few months later, they’re being asked to return to the polls for a sort of do-over.”
Associated Press, March 5, 2021
There are three special elections to fill House vacancies scheduled for this spring. Two more are likely once the incumbents are confirmed as members of Biden’s cabinet. Two of the three races currently scheduled have vacancies because the Republican incumbents passed away from complications due to COVID-19. The other incumbent has joined the Biden Administration in a position that does not require Senate confirmation, and the seat is currently vacant. None of these seats would be considered good pick-up opportunities for either party, although the Democrats have an outside chance of picking up TX-06.
Current electoral calendar for House special elections this year:
March 20: Louisiana 2nd and 5th Districts
April 24: Louisiana runoffs (if necessary)
May 1: Texas 6th District
May 24: Texas 6th runoff (if necessary)
May 4/August 3: Ohio’s 11th District primary (depends on the timing of Senate confirmation)
TBD: New Mexico 1st District (no primary unless law changes)
August 3/November 2: Ohio 11th District general
A few notes about some idiosyncrasies in these elections. First, it’s worth noting that the Constitution requires a special election to fill a vacancy in a House seat. Unlike Senate vacancies, special elections are the only way to fill House vacancies. Senate vacancies require special elections too, but the Constitution allows for governors to fill them until the special election. House seats remain vacant until filled through a special election.
Louisiana has a unique electoral system (it is also the only state that uses a civil law system rather than common law in the courts). Ballotpedia calls it a “majority-vote” system with two rounds. However, you might be more familiar with the terms “jungle primary” and “run-off,” which are essentially the two rounds of the Louisiana electoral system. The way it works is that all candidates regardless of party run in one primary – round 1 of the majority-vote system. If a candidate gets 50% of the vote, that candidate wins the election. If no one gets 50% then the top two finishers, regardless of party, proceed to the run-off – round 2 of the majority vote system. The winner of the run-off is elected.
Other states utilize round 1 or round 2 type procedures, but the only state I know that ever uses a system like Louisiana’s is Georgia, but only for special elections. Georgia uses run-offs in regular elections but has a traditional party primary. It uses a jungle primary for special elections. California uses the same round 1 procedure as Louisiana for the primary, but the top two always move on to the general elections regardless of how many votes the first-place finisher gets. In a regular election, Louisiana holds its jungle primary on the day of the general election in November (October in odd-year elections for local offices). The run-off takes place a month later, if necessary. The rules for the Texas special election are the same as for Georgia special elections.
Under current law in New Mexico, there will not be any primaries. For special elections, each party’s central committee picks their nominee. New Mexico does employ a run-off if no candidate gets 50% in the election. I am unaware of any other state that does that in a normal election, whether general or special. It some jurisdictions a party’s central committee will pick a replacement candidate if the winner of the primary quits the race or dies before the general election. Other jurisdictions use the “American Rule” where the election proceeds and if the deceased candidate wins, the office is declared vacant. However, neither is the case here.
Ohio appears to be the only special election this year that uses traditional party primaries followed by a general election.
Let’s take a look at the three races we have scheduled.
Louisiana 2nd
The second is the only Louisiana congressional district that was not held by a Republican after the last election. The Partisan Voter Index for the district is D+25. It is a gerrymandered district containing New Orleans that snakes from the Gulf through The Big Easy westward and then turns north to Baton Rouge. The incumbent, Cedric Richmond (D), has left to take a senior advisor position in the White House. The field includes eight Democrats, four Republicans, two Independents, and one Libertarian.
The strongest candidates are state senators Troy Carter (D) and Karen Peterson (D). Also getting some recognition is activist Gary Chambers (D). Carter has been endorsed by Richmond and Peterson has been endorsed by Stacey Abrams and Emily’s List. All three of these candidates are fairly liberal Democrats, although Carter seems to be closer to the center than the other two.
CityLab’s Congressional Density Index lists the district as “Dense Suburban.” Biden won the district in 2016 and Clinton won in 2020. The margin was over 50 points in both elections. This is about as safe a Democratic district as there is.* The only question is which Democrat will win. It is likely to be either Carter or Peterson.
Louisiana 5th
This was an open seat in the November election. Republican Luke Letlow won a run-off in December against another Republican, who is not running again. Letlow died a few weeks later from COVID-19 and never took office. His wife, Julia Letlow, is running in the special election and has gained endorsements from the most important Republican office-holders in Louisiana. There are nine Republicans and one Democrat running. None of the other candidates appears have the support Letlow appears to have.
The district is located in the northern and central parts of the state and abuts Mississippi. It includes the “Florida Parishes” which occupy the area east of the Mississippi River, so called because they were part of the short-lived Republic of West Florida at a time when France, Spain, and the United States had competing claims in the general region. (Another Louisiana idiosyncrasy is that counties are called parishes, which – like its civil law system – is a legacy of its Catholic and French colonial history.) CityLab’s Congressional Density Index lists the district as “Pure Rural.”
According to Inside Elections, “The district is 59 percent White and 35 percent Black, though among registered voters the balance is 64 percent White and 33 percent Black. In 2020, in the first round of voting, the four Democratic candidates combined for 33 percent, while the five Republican candidates combined for 67 percent. Turnout for the first round of voting, on Nov. 3, 2020, was 309,556 — 69 percent of registered voters. But participation plummeted to 79,306 — 17 percent — in the Dec. 5 runoff.”
Cook Political Report gives the district a PVI of R+15. Trump won the district in 2016 and 2020 by 30 points both times. While the district has a slight advantage for Democrats (+5 point) in voter registration, that may be a legacy of older voting patterns (although the breakdown is 40-35, which means there are a lot of independent voters in the district who break Republican in elections). The seat is highly unlikely to be competitive. A Republican should win this seat, and in all likelihood it will be Letlow.
Texas 6th
Rep. Ronald White (R) was reelected last November but died last month from COVID-19. According to the Texas Tribune there are 23 candidates who have filed to run, including a last minute entry by former pro wrestler who was a Republican candidate for Congress in Nevada just four months ago. The field includes 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one Independent, and one Libertarian.
As in Louisiana’s 5th, the late incumbent’s widow is running but in this case she does not appear to have a clear shot at winning. Republican candidates include former HHS chief of staff (under Trump) Brian Harrison and state representative Jake Ellzey. Notable Democratic candidates include the 2018 nominee Jana Lynne Sanchez, Lydia Bean, and Shawn Lassiter.
The district has a PVI of R+9. It is situated in the suburbs between Dallas and Fort Worth and includes Arlington. It also includes suburbs south of Dallas. The population is about 50% white, 20% Black, and 20% Latinx. CityLab’s Congressional Density Index rates the district as “Dense Suburban.”
Trump won this district in 2020 by three points, while winning in 2016 by 12 points. The gap is closing in this district as it becomes more Democratic. Although it has only been four months since the election, three points suggests that a strong Democratic campaign has an outside shot of winning this district. Still, safe money would be on a Republican hold. This district is likely to turn blue in the next five to ten years if it does not this year.
Potential races
If the Senate confirms Rep. Marcia Fudge as Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, there will be a special election in Ohio’s 11th district. Fudge is the incumbent in this district. Based on the way Ohio schedules special elections, the timing of the confirmation – and thus vacancy – will determine when the election will be held. The primary will be in either May or August and the general election will be in either August or November.
Rep. Deb Haaland (D) is the incumbent in the 1st district of New Mexico, which includes Albuqueque. If the Senate confirms her as Secretary of Interior, there will be a special election. This election will take place on a date between 77 and 91 days from her confirmation. As noted above, in New Mexico there is no primary in House special elections. Candidates will be chosen by each party’s central committee at least 56 days before the election unless a bill currently being considered by the New Mexico legislature is quickly enacted. That bill would change the process and provide for a traditional primary in special elections.
We’ll take a look at these races when the vacancies are official.
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* However, a Republican did represent this district from 2008-2010.