2021 Special Elections Update: Louisiana Primaries, Confirmed Specials for Ohio & New Mexico, and (a Chance for) Flipping a Seat in Texas
March 22, 2021
There have been a few developments over the weekend in the 2021 special election season. Here’s a quick update.
Reps Marcia Fudge (D-OH) and Deb Haaland (D-NM) have been confirmed as members of Biden’s cabinet. There will be special elections for both House seats this year. Ohio has decided to push back filling Fudge’s 11th district seat until August for the primary. The general election will be held in November. New Mexico has scheduled the special election for Haaland’s 1st district seat for June 1. It appears that the effort to enact a traditional primary in this special election has been unsuccessful in the New Mexico legislature. Party central committees will choose their nominees for the June 1 ballot. Both seats are likely to be holds for the Democrats.
This past Saturday, special elections were held in Louisiana to fill the vacant seats in the 2nd and 5th districts. As expected, Julia Letlow – the widow of the Republican elected in November – won the election in the 5th district with over 60% of the vote. There will be a run-off in the 2nd. Also as expected, State Senators Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson (no relation) finished in the top two spots. However, activist Gary Chambers gave Carter Peterson a scare, missing out on the run-off by 1,500 votes. Chambers may be able to play somewhat of a kingmaker in this race after getting over a fifth of the vote in a race where the top two finishers got 36% and 23%.
The run-off in the 2nd district will take place on Saturday, April 24th. On the issues, there seem to be little separating Carter and Carter Peterson. Carter has focused on his endorsement by former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), who is now a senior advisor in the Biden Administration, suggesting that this will give him more clout than his opponent. Carter Peterson has endorsements from Stacey Abrams, Emily’s List, and the state Democratic Party chair. Both candidates will likely seek an endorsement from Chambers, but it is unclear what he plans to do. This run-off should be competitive, but regardless of who wins the Democrats will keep the seat.
The next special election to be held after the Louisiana run-off is the only one so far this year that has a plausible chance of being flipped, although it is likely that the GOP will hold the seat. Susan Wright is expected to finish in first place in the May 1st jungle primary for Texas 6th district. Wright’s husband was the Republican incumbent who recently passed away after being reelected in November. Unlike Letlow, however, Wright is not expected to win outright. Trump won this district by four points in 2020, so the Democrats could be competitive. However, due to the number of Democratic candidates in the race (nine) it is possible the Republicans will grab the top two slots for the run-off.
The Democrats’ best chance is probably to coalesce around 2018 candidate Jana Lynn Sanchez. Although she passed on a 2020 run, she is well known and better situated to garner the most Democratic support of any of the nine candidates running. Democrats Lydia Bean and Shawn Lassiter are her two biggest threats, and there is no indication they will drop out of the race. Cook Political Report thinks that national Democrats will not invest in this race unless a Democrat makes it to the run-off. The nature of the jungle primary combined with so many Democratic candidates splitting the vote — not to mention that the late GOP incumbent won reelection by eight points a few months ago — suggest that a big investment in this race by Democrats might not be a wise use of donor money. If Sanchez or another Democrat makes it through to the run-off, that political calculus might change.