“I’ve been a conservative Republican my entire life. I’ve never before voted for a Democrat for president. But this year, principle and conscience require me to do just that. I’m voting for Joe Biden.”
Former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) in an ad for Joe Biden to run in Arizona.
Three A+ pollsters dropped some state polls after today’s earlier post and the results are looking really bad for the Republicans. In addition to those pollsters, CNN/SSRS (B/C) released a national poll this afternoon finding Biden up by 12 points (54-42).
Monmouth University (A+) has polls out for Georgia today that support Civiqs’ (B/C) findings yesterday that Democrat Raphael Warnock is far ahead in the special election for the Senate seat current held by Republican Kelly Loeffler. Warnock is 20 points ahead of either Republican candidate (Loeffler and Rep. Doug Collins), but still just shy of an outright majority needed to avoid a runoff. In the head-to-heads, Warnock leads both Republicans with 51% against Collins and 49% against Loeffler. Civiqs had Warnock at 51% against both Republicans in the head-to-heads.
In the regular Senate election, Monmouth has Democrat Jon Ossoff leading Republican Senator David Perdue by one to two points depending on turnout model. However, Ossoff only gets to 49%, which would not avoid a runoff. This race looks to be close, but it could be decided on Tuesday since both candidates are so close to 50% at this point.
The Senate findings are not the worst of it for Georgia Republicans. Monmouth has Biden up by between two and four points (depending on turnout model) in the presidential race. When the minor party candidates are included, Biden’s lead increase to five points. The former vice president polls 50% in each instance. Biden campaigned in Georgia yesterday, which was the last day this poll was in the field (meaning it likely had no impact on the result).
ABC News/Washington Post (A+) has really bad news for Trump’s final week Great Lakes strategy. The pollster finds that Biden has a 17 point lead in Wisconsin (57-40) and a seven point lead in Michigan (51-44). Siena College/New York Times (A+) finds Biden leading in Michigan by eight points (49-41). Additionally, ABC News finds Michigan Senator Gary Peters (D) leading his GOP challenger by six points (52-46) in a race that Republicans thought could be a pick-up for them. Siena finds Peters up by the same eight point margin as Biden (49-41).
The generic ballot looks good for Democrats. CNN/SSRS has the Democrats up by 12 points. YouGov (B) has the Democrats ahead by 10 points. The USC Dornsife tracking poll (B/C) has the Democrats up by eight points. The generic ballot historically tracks closely to the overall national partisan vote in Congressional races. Public Policy Polling (B) has Democrat Hiral Tipirneni leading incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert in Arizona’s 6th Congressional District by four points (45-41). Colby College (no rating) has both Maine incumbents crushing their Republican opponents by over 20 points in the two House races there. Out of 218 seats needed to retain a majority in the House, the Democrats have solid ratings in 210 according to Inside Politics.
The final edition of Inside Politics before the election sees Democrats picking up four Senate seats (AZ, CO, ME, NC) and losing one (AL), while three Republican seats are Toss-Ups (GA regular, IA, MT). Still competitive, but leaning towards the incumbents, are Michigan, Texas, and Alaska. All other states are considered solid for the incumbents. This means a potential Democratic gain of between three and eight seats. The worst case scenario for the GOP would be if Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) wins reelection. That could result in as many as a nine-seat gain for Democrats. More likely, the Democratic gain will be four to six seats. In the presidential race, Inside Politics has Biden winning 350 electoral votes with another 63 as Toss-Ups (including Texas and Ohio).
All of these things spell potential doom for the GOP next Tuesday. If Biden does win the national vote by double digits, it should be a bloodbath for Republicans up and down the ballot. However, the Senate could be much closer and while no one really believes the GOP can win the House, the Democrats could just net out their current majority. The odds of a GOP victory in the Senate and presidency look increasingly bleak, but there are still a lot of votes yet to be cast.