This data is depressing when considering what-might-have-been in Florida in 2022 (see chart pictured below). However, it is encouraging when considering what-could-be in Florida in 2024. Youth vote (and women and persons of color) was significantly down among Democrats in 2022 compared to 2018. And not just with turnout. More first time voters were Republicans rather than Democrats last year. When compared to the strong youth voter turnout we saw in other battleground states, it starts to look like young folks (and women and persons of color to some degree) just didn't think their votes mattered and stayed home.
Was this because of the candidates? Could be. The Democratic nominee for governor was an old white guy who used to be the Republican governor of Florida. And while the Democratic nominee for Senate was a Black woman, she was a cop. Maybe stop nominating old white guys and cops?
Was this because of a Republican narrative of inevitability? Could be. However, we saw Republicans and their media allies try hard to make that case in other states and it didn't work. Well, maybe it did work to some extent; maybe turnout would have been even higher in other states without the red wave lie.
Was this because of the message? Could be. Tom Bonior seems to think that Florida Democrats did a lackluster job of painting Republican extremists as, well, Republican extremists. That message really seemed to make a difference in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
We'll need some polling and focus groups to help us understand why turnout among young Democratic voters was so low compared to other battleground states. But, once we have that data it is time to put Florida back on the board.
There has been a lot of talk about Florida now being a solidly Republican state. Pundits love to make assertions like this. However, the turnout data suggests to us that what Democrats have is a mobilization problem. Perhaps even an organizing problem on top of it.
In 2024, Sen. Rick Scott (R) is up for reelection. He's an old rich white guy who champions cutting up the social safety net and raising taxes on working people while cutting them for rich people and corporations. Maybe Democrats should focus on a young person of color who a strong message that resonates with young voters.