Biden and the Democrats are in Better Shape than You might Think
Pundits are pushing an anti-Biden narrative, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny
Pundits are really stepping up the Biden-is-in-trouble narrative this week.
We keep hearing the he's-too-old narrative, even though he's just a couple years older than Trump and in much better physical & mental shape than a 78 year old toddler who is so insecure he lies about his weight and brags that he can perform simple tasks.
We hear about Hunter Biden and impeachment, but there is zero evidence of any wrong-doing by the president. That's why you hear Republicans talk about the "Biden family" - the only evidence they have of any wrong-doing is with his son. The one candidate for president who is in serious legal trouble - and whose family has stolen from cancer charity to the tune of millions of dollars and has taken bribes from foreign governments in the billions of dollars - is Trump.
There is some polling out there that suggests Trump could beat Biden, but we are still 14 months out from the election and some of these polls are methodologically-suspect - including the USA Today/Suffolk University poll released this morning. That poll claims large majorities of Americans think the economy is really bad and want Trump over Biden to manage it. (Presidents don't actually manage the economy, btw.) Looking at the methodology, we can see one serious problem that immediately jumps out: every respondent was interviewed with a live telephone call. This means that people under 45, maybe even 50, had to be heavily weighted in the sample because we know that they don't answer the phone if they don't know who is calling (I don't either, and I am over 50). That age demographic has strongly supported Democrats in the past few elections. (There are some other cautions as well. "Residents" were sampled, not registered or likely voters. And the survey instrument was created by the Suffolk Business School, with some students crafting some of the questions.)
I've discussed before that approval ratings really don't mean much in presidential politics these days. Republicans always hate the Democrat, the reverse seems to be true too (but to be fair, the GOP is a cesspool of fascists these days so there is much for normal people to dislike in that party). But the big difference is that Democrats will be critical of their own party and Republicans will not (for the most part). This skews approval ratings to make Biden look weaker than he is and Trump to look stronger than he is. The approval ratings metric doesn't matter right now. It used to. It may again someday. It doesn't today.
And, of course, there is the not-so-subtle racism and misogyny around Kamala Harris being on the ticket again. There is absolutely no reason for anyone to think she's been anything but a normal vice president. Now, I know that there has been issues about some toxic management in her previous positions, but that's inside baseball. Does anyone really think working for Trump is not toxic? And way more, to be sure. But while that may be the reason motivating some anonymous Democrats to whisper she should be booted off the ticket in '24, that's not really what's going on here. Republicans want to motivate voters to vote for Trump (or whatever nominee they may actually come up with) by scaring them that "that black lady" is actually going to be president (either by succeeding Biden or by pulling his strings).
Despite all the noise that may be worrying you that Biden is destined to lose next year, there is little reason right now to think that he is or Democrats in general are in trouble in 2024. When it comes to actual elections, Democrats are doing much better than Republicans. Across all special and off-year elections since the last presidential election, Democratic candidates have overperformed their 2020 results by an average of 7.4 points. This is the one metric that should - and trust me, does - worry Republican strategists. In high profile elections with big decisions at stake, Democrats have really surprised the pundits. Think the Kansas abortion vote, the Wisconsin supreme court race, and the Ohio constitutional amendment vote. Voters strongly rejected Republican candidates and positions in these high profile election.
There's one more thing that has got to have Republican strategists worried: they are losing important redistricting cases in the courts. With recent decisions on Alabama and Georgia redistricting - among some others - Democrats may pick up 4 to 5 House seats that Republicans have tried to racially gerrymander to their favor. Democrats should pick up at least two if not all four New York seats they lost in 2022. And there is a good chance the NY Court of Appeals (the state's supreme court) will allow the Legislature to redistrict again and in a way that will favor Democrats. There are two seats in California that should swing back to Democrats. And all of this has nothing to do with the national mood next year. Kevin McCarthy is not just in trouble from his Nihilist Caucus, he's unlikely to hold the majority come January 2025.
So, don't get too worried. Get motivated. Stop listening to these talking heads who are only trying to get your attention or clicks. Organize! Mobilize! Vote!