Source: New York Times, February 28, 2023
With 93% of the vote counted in the Chicago Mayor’s race, Vallas and Johnson have finished in the top two slots. The AP has called the race for both of them. The only sticking point is whether Lightfoot will ask for a recount. I still don't quite understand the recount rules. The law says if the loser (in this case the third place finisher, who is Lightfoot) gets at least 95% of the winner's votes (in this case the second place finisher, Johnson) then the loser can petition for a recount. Media outlets have been reporting this to mean that if the loser is within five percent (which in the media usually means within five percentage points) of the winner there can be a recount. Are these the same thing? Nope.
As it stands now, Lightfoot is within five points of Johnson. But, her vote is 83% of Johnson's total. So by the first measure she can petition for a recount, but by the second measure she cannot. I would like to get some clarity on what the rule actually is, but in this case it would be just academic. That's because no one in the history of democratic recounts has ever made up more than a few hundred votes.1 In this case, Lightfoot needs to make up about 20,000 votes. It's not going to happen.
There's another reason it won't happen: Lightfoot has conceded. That has no legal value, but it suggests that she has accepted the results and is not going to challenge them. This is good news for progressive generally and Johnson specifically. If this election dragged out for a few weeks, Vallas would have a huge head start in the runoff, which is scheduled for April 4.
See my November 9, 2020 post. “According to Fair Vote, between 2000 and 2019 the were 5,778 statewide general elections held in the United States. Thirty-one of these elections had recounts, resulting in three elections being overturned. The vote shift in these three elections was between 239 and 440 votes. The original margin in these races was between 102 and 225 votes.”