Deep in the Heart
The Lone Star State might be the most interesting state to watch on November 3rd. Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA), the Democratic vice presidential nominee, is heading to Texas to campaign. It will be the highest profile campaign appearance for the Democrats this year. The Biden campaign is spending on advertising in the borderlands in an attempt to run up the score around San Antonio and El Paso. The hope is that this will put Biden/Harris over the top statewide. Should the Democratic ticket win the Lone Star State’s 38 electoral votes there would be no possible path to victory for the GOP.
There is a lot of voter enthusiasm this year in Texas. As of today, early voting represents about 80% of the total 2016 turnout. The expectation is that 12 million Texans will vote this year. That sounds like it is good for Biden, but there are plenty of potential Trump voters out there too. High turnout does not automatically mean Democratic victories as many seem to assume.
A new poll from Siena College/New York Times (A+) is throwing some cold water on the Democrats’ hope to win these 38 electoral votes. Released this morning, Siena finds Trump leading Texas by four points (47-43). As the discussion of “Problems” below illustrates, even a Biden loss in Texas year will likely be a victory for Democrats down-ballot and foreshadow an upcoming transition of the state from red to at least purple.
Problems for Biden: Black and Latino support appear to be lower than they were for Clinton four years ago.
Problems for Trump: Among Latino voters that have already voted or say they are likely to vote, Biden has a big lead. It’s only when less likely Latino voters are added that the gap narrows. The GOP is losing the suburbs in Texas. Trump’s route to victory is high rural turnout combined with Biden winning fewer Black and Latino votes (as a share) than Clinton did in 2016.
Problem for Pollsters: Texas does not have voter registration by party, so pollsters have to make more assumptions about turnout than in other states where party registration is reported. This could mean that Democratic support has been underestimated this year (Siena underestimated such support in the 2018 midterms).
Problems for the GOP: Even if Trump wins the state, Siena finds that the GOP is in trouble down-ballot. Although Senator John Cornyn (R) appears to be on the road to reelection, in the dozen or so most competitive House districts the Democrats appear to be in very good shape. Trump’s problems with the suburbs are impacting the GOP all the way to the bottom. Democrats may also win the state House, which would be important for the coming Congressional redistricting. Texas is expected to gain two U.S. House seats.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average for Texas is Trump +1.4 points. This average includes today’s Siena poll. Other recent polls have had Biden in the lead. Still, The Upshot’s polling average has Trump up by three points and The Economist gives Biden just a 30% chance of winning the state. Here’s a list of recent polling from The Economist (it does not include polls from the last couple of days, which are more favorable to Trump save one**).
Volunteer Opportunities of the Day
Here are some volunteer actions from We the Action. These opportunities are all legal in nature, but for most of them you do not need to be a lawyer or a legal professional. You will likely need to do a web-based training. For other volunteer campaign activities this week consult Mobilize, Together for 2020, and The Action Network.
When We All Vote: Encourage voting and help ensure voters get their questions answered by volunteering at socially-distant celebrations in cities nationwide. Anticipated time commitment: 1-5 hours.
Election Protection Coalition & Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law: New shifts added! Answer voter questions remotely or in person to help ensure they're able to cast their ballot. Anticipated time commitment: 1-5 hours.
NALEO Educational Fund: Spanish speakers are needed to staff a nonpartisan voter hotline to answer calls, address voter questions, and help troubleshoot any issues they encounter. Anticipated time commitment: 6-10 hours.
Asian Americans Advancing Justice (AAJC): Work with Asian American voters to answer their questions and help them vote. Volunteers who speak Mandarin, Cantonese, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, Urdu, Hindi, or Bengali particularly needed. Anticipated time commitment: 1-5 hours.
Voter Protection Corps Education & Advocacy Fund: Texas residents needed to volunteer as poll workers to ensure everyone is able to vote and is counted fairly. Anticipated time commitment: 11-20 hours.
Fair Fight Action: Help defend voters and organizations facing legal charges by state and local governments for lawful voting activities. Anticipated time commitment: 21+ hours.
Today’s numbers:
Polling Averages
FiveThirtyEight: Biden +9.2 (change towards Trump)
The Upshot: Biden +9.0 (no change)*
Real Clear Politics: Biden +7.9 (no change)
Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight (probabilities of winning EC): Biden 87%, Trump 12% (no change)
The Economist (probabilities of winning EC): Biden 95%, Trump 5% (change towards Biden)
The Upshot (probable EV totals): Biden 357 EVs, Trump 181 EVs (no change)
Total Early Votes: 61,268,367 (+8.6M since Friday)
Mail Ballots: 40,805,345 (+4.4M since Friday)
In-Person Votes: 20,463,022 (+4.2M since Friday)
* The Upshot rounds its averages to the nearest whole number.
** The University of Texas at Tyler (B/C) released a poll over the weekend finding Biden leading by three points.