Quinnipiac (A-) has what sounds like bad news for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) today. However, I don’t think it will change the way he is governing. Floridians are overwhelming in favor of mask mandates in schools, oppose his (empty) threat to punish school leaders for mask mandates, and favor requiring health care workers, teachers, and passengers and staff on cruise ships to be vaccinated. Yet, DeSantis will likely double-down because for the most part the Republican base supports his positions. Let’s focus on just the mask mandate in school issue to examine why DeSantis, who is up for reelection next year, continues to go against the grain of public opinion in Florida.
“As COVID-19 makes a frightening resurgence, it’s Tallahassee vs. the teaching institutions. Thumbs down from Floridians on DeSantis’ ban on mask requirements in public schools. Thumbs down on DeSantis’ call to freeze pay of administrators who mandate mask wearing. And he gets scant support from fellow Republicans on penalizing the school leaders who defy him,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Why would DeSantis continue to oppose public health measures designed to protect people from the Delta variant in light of this kind of public support for them? Consider this:
While “a majority of people in Florida say 60 – 36 percent that they support requiring students, teachers, and staff to wear masks in schools . . . [,t]here are sharp political divides on this question as Democrats support school mask requirements 98 – 1 percent, independents support them 63 – 32 percent, and Republicans oppose them 72 – 24 percent.”
Republicans oppose mask mandates in schools by nearly three to one. And while he is running for reelection next year and needs to get by a primary, he really has his eyes set on the GOP presidential nomination in 2024. Sure, you may think, but doesn’t he have to win reelection? How can a governor win reelection with this kind of opposition? There are two reasons.
First, he does not have to win reelection to run for president in 2024. If he is throwing red meat at the base consistently, losing what would likely be a close vote in 2022 (this is Florida after all) would be turned into a strength by arguing that he lost on principle. And he will probably whine about the election being stolen since that seems to be the first rule of the new GOP handbook. He might also decide at the last minute not to run for reelection. This would echo what Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) did in 2002. Elected as a moderate, his rhetoric became increasingly aimed at a right-wing Republican national base. Chances that he would be reelected looked increasingly slim, but he always had his eyes on the presidency, so he opted not to run again and focused on national office. There are important differences between Romney in 2002 and DeSantis in 2022, but for our purposes here they are close enough to make the analogy.
Second, a single issue will not necessarily bring down any elected official. We continue to see strong public support for gun control measures but see relatively little evidence that this support changes how voters behave at the polls. DeSantis needs strong Republican support and turnout to win. In a mid-term election year, enough of his base could sit it out to throw the election to the Democratic nominee.
DeSantis may be considering other political calculations than the two above, but one thing that seems pretty clear to me is that he is not operating out of principle. He may be so wrong about his political calculations that he self-sabotages his career, but he will be doing that on politics not principle. The idea that opposing the mandating of masks or even vaccines in schools during a pandemic is a matter of principle is ridiculous when the same people support dress codes and all the other vaccines kids need to have to go to school. If DeSantis had some long-standing religious opposition to dress codes and vaccines, that would be different (although no less irresponsible for someone in his position). But he doesn’t (he’s a Catholic; the Pope supports the public health measures he opposes). He’s just trying to win the Republican nomination for president in 2024.
And on that last point, this poll is not very good for DeSantis either. However, it does not matter for his political calculation. The poll finds that 59% of Floridians do not want DeSantis to run for president, including 24% of Republicans. That’s not all that unusual. Sitting governors often see that kind of result in polling. This does not change the political calculus I discussed above, however. It is highly unlikely that any Florida Republican will vote against DeSantis next year because he wants to run for president. And once he is in the national race, it is unlikely that Florida Republicans will mount some effort to undermine his nomination. Although we have seen that happen before, so it is a risk. But it is likely a risk worth taking since DeSantis wants to be president not governor.
PROGRAM NOTE: I have been on vacation for the past few weeks and I am just getting back into the swing of things. Later this week, I will have a new piece on the California recall election. At the moment it’s a long piece. I may have to slice it into two parts. Look for at least part 1 this week.