[Senate Majority Leader Mitch] McConnell [R-KY] said that Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, who are both facing runoffs in January that will determine which party controls the Senate, were “getting hammered” for Congress’s failure to deliver more pandemic aid to struggling Americans — particularly the direct payments — and that enacting the measure could help them.
Early voting has begun!
Early voting in Georgia began on Monday, December 14th. So far, early voting is beginning to slightly exceed the amount seen during the first three days of general election early voting. Approximately 168,000 people voted in-person on Monday December 14th , up from 136,000 on the first day of in-person early voting for the presidential election. According to Nate Cohn, this is a record for day one of early voting in the Peach State. The share of Democratic voters was slightly off from the same period in the general election, but closed on day two. By day three, the Democratic share of the early vote surpassed the same period in the general election.
This chart from Nate Cohn illustrates how the Democratic share of the early vote has by day three (Wednesday December 16th) started to improve over the same period in the general election. The dark line is the current early voting while the line light is the general election early voting.
While hopefully a good sign, Cohn says it is too early to tell. However, all signs point to a high turnout run-off election.
Republicans have tended to do better in Georgia run-offs, and the conventional wisdom on that is similar to the conventional wisdom on mid-term turnout. Republicans do better because their voters turn out higher in such elections. One reason for this is that young voters, who are more likely to support Democratic candidates, tend to stay home in mid-terms and run-offs. Another reason is that more highly educated voters tend to get out and vote in every election, including run-offs. You might see some problems with this conventional wisdom. On this I am a broken record: political conventional wisdom is always correct, until it isn’t.
In the past two presidential elections and the 2018 mid-terms, we have seen college educated voters turn sharply to the Democrats. Also, we have seen record numbers of young voters participate in both the 2018 mid-terms and this year’s general election. That said, the Republican base seems energized and its turn-out should be expected to be high. But, unlike past run-offs in the Peach State, we should expect Democratic turn-out to be similarly high.
There will be quite a few new voters in Georgia who were not eligible to vote in the general election. According to the Atlanta Journal Constitution, “Nearly 75,000 new voters registered in Georgia since before the presidential election, enough to make a difference in the U.S. Senate runoffs if they turn out. They’re overwhelmingly young, with 57% of them under 35 years old. Some are new Georgia residents; others just turned 18. None has a voting record in the state.”
Recent polls
There have been two new polls this week so far. Insider Advantage (B-) found Loeffler leading Warnock by one point (49-48) and Perdue leading Ossoff by the same margin (49-48). Emerson College (A-) found Loeffler leading by two points (51-49) and Perdue with the same margin (51-49). Earlier polls (mostly from less reputable pollsters) have also shown the races to be close.
I am going to start including margins of error in my poll reports; something I haven’t done since the summer. The reason for this is that folks become fixated on the reported number and expect a degree of exactitude that polling cannot provide. The Insider Advantage poll’s MOE was 4.4 points. Emerson’s was 3.9 points. I am rounding them both to four points (which is, not surprising, what we consider to be a “normal” polling error). As a result, Warnock and Ossoff’s support ranges from 44 to 52 percent of the electorate in the Insider Advantage poll and from 45-53 percent in the Emerson poll. If we apply the directionality we saw in the general election to the polling (towards the GOP), we have to assume that both Democrats are losing the race by several points. Still close, but the smart strategy for these campaigns would be to assume they need to pick up at least five points.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball notes that in every “double-barrel” election since 1966, not one has been split between the parties. With both parties running team campaigns, it is likely this year will be no exception to the modern trend. However, since both races are close and Warnock appears to have slightly stronger support statewide, if there is a split I would expect Ossoff to be the one who loses. The Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report rate both seats as Toss-Ups. Cook reports that the candidates are all spending more in the run-offs than they did in the general election. In fact, the Republican candidates have already spent about 40% more than their opponents on television advertising, with each GOP candidate spending over $100 million in the post-general election period.
There has been some reporting that the GOP candidates in Georgia might be in serious trouble for a couple of reasons. First, a Fox News poll found that the results of the presidential election have increased the likelihood of Democrats voting in future elections more than that for Republicans (although 68% of Republicans said they were more inclined to vote; but compare that to 84% of Democrats). This poll actually helps confirm Cohn’s conclusion that this will be a high turnout election on both sides.
Second, there is evidence that some in Trump’s base are angry enough about the GOP not doing more to overthrow the general election results that they are telling people to refrain from voting in the run-offs. Virtual screaming and paranoia on Twitter and Paler by right wing loudmouths is one thing, but there is no other evidence right now that there will be any significant depression of GOP turn-out as a result. However, Trump is not helping the GOP candidates by calling for Georgia statewide officials (all of whom in question are Republicans) to be jailed for certifying the presidential vote. It remains to be seen if the constant undermining of democracy by Trump and his supporters will turn off a significant number of GOP voters. If that happens, both GOP candidates will likely lose (assuming the polling is in the ballpark).
Election cases are not over (but should be)
GOP lawyers were in federal court yesterday making the same argument about the settlement agreement that has already been rejected. They were trying to change the rules regarding challenges to absentee ballots on the fourth day after voting has begun. While lawyers were making this argument in one Georgia federal courtroom, a different federal court in the Peach State rejected the same argument in a different lawsuit. By the end of the day, both federal courts had ruled against the GOP.
Resources for Democratic volunteers
If you are interested in helping the Democratic candidates in the run-offs, here are some resources for you:
Working Families Party phone banking for Raphael Warnock
New Georgia Project phone banking
New Georgia Project in-person voter protection help
Multiple actions (including donations) from Together2020