“The data speak for themselves. We had a super-spreader event in the White House. And it was in a situation where people were crowded together, were not wearing masks. So the data speaks for themselves.”*
Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, describing the White House announcement of Amy Coney Barrett as Trump’s Supreme Court nominee as the event that spread Covid to at least 34 persons associated with the White House.
We are not hearing much about the state of the race for control of the House of Representatives. One reason for that – perhaps the only one – is that no one thinks the Republicans have any chance of regaining control of the chamber. The Democrats not only seem almost certain to retain control of the House, but many now think that they will pick up anywhere from five to ten seats. However, there is an important reason to keep your eye on the House this year because if for any reason no candidate receives 270 electoral votes the House will decide the president.
How is that a problem for Democrats with a solid majority? Because the Constitution requires that each state delegation in the House gets one vote. Republicans currently control 26 delegations, even though they are the minority in the overall membership. There are six states that have just one representative in Congress, and five of them are held by Republicans. Winning just one of these five seats will prevent the Republicans from installing Trump as president should it come to that. We’ll come back to those seats in a minute.
First, let’s discuss how the House might end up choosing the next president. The most likely way that could happen in this year’s election is if Biden and Trump tie at 269-269. That was an outcome that seemed plausible (but still unlikely) a few months ago, but less so now (see polling updates below). The Constitution requires that the House choose the president where no candidate receives a majority of votes in the Electoral College (270 being the barest majority possible today). The incoming House** is required to choose among the top three finishers in the election. As noted above, each state gets just one vote. No other candidates has any route to victory in a state, so the House would choose between the only two candidates receiving votes. It is possible an Elector, knowing that the popular vote tied the race in the Electoral College, decides to vote for a different candidate than he or she is pledged to support. If the race is tied after November 3rd, we’ll revisit this issue.***
One way to prevent the Republicans from installing Trump as president under this scenario is to win a majority of at least one state delegation that is currently held by the GOP. Currently, the Republicans hold majorities in 26 state delegations, the Democrats hold majorities in 24 state delegations, and Pennsylvania is tied.
Alaska and Montana are the best chances for Democrats to win over one-person state delegations. Florida’s delegation is controlled by the GOP by one vote (14-13). Flipping FL-15 can put the Democrats in the majority in the Sunshine State, but Democrats have to hold FL-15 which is currently a Toss-Up. These are the best bets to ending the GOP’s majority of state delegations. There are five states where a Democratic pick-up could tie the delegation, but there are no competitive races in any of them.
AK-AL: Don Young (R) – At Large
CPR Rating: Lean Republican. There has been almost no polling in this race so far, but there was one this week. It has Alyse Galvin (an Independent endorsed by the Democrats) leading Young by two points (48-46). You can reach Galvin’s campaign here: https://www.alyse4alaska.com/.
FL-15: OPEN (Spano) (R) - Central: Lakeland, Brandon, Plant City
CPR Rating: Lean Republican. There is no public polling in this district. From CPR: “Republicans argue they caught a break when insurance executive and Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin ousted GOP Rep. Ross Spano, who was tarred by campaign finance violations, in the August primary. But polls show most voters still aren't all that familiar with Franklin or Democrat Alan Cohn, a former news anchor for Sarasota's ABC7. The underlying fundamentals of this seat (Trump won it by 10 points) suggest Franklin holds the edge.” You can reach Cohn’s campaign here: https://alancohnforcongress.com/.
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - South: Homestead, The Keys, The Everglades
CPR Rating: Toss Up. There is no public polling for this district either. From CPR: “Private polling continues to find two-term Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giminez leading Mucarsel-Powell by mid-single digits, despite Trump having lost this district by 16 points in 2016. Giminez, who is term-limited in 2020, has the name ID of an incumbent and has generally received non-stop (and generally positive) press for his handling of COVID-19. Even Democrats admit Trump has recovered some ground with Cuban voters since 2016, and Republicans believe they didn't fully litigate the case against Mucarsel-Powell in 2018, including her husband's business ties to a Ukrainian oligarch who has been accused of contract killings. Ultimately, Democrats may be able to save Mucarsel-Powell by branding Giminez as a shape-shifter. Giminez said he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but got a Trump endorsement in January.” You can reach Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign here: https://www.debbiemucarselpowell.com/.
MT-AL: OPEN (Gianforte) (R) – At Large
CPR Rating: Lean Republican. In a few polls over the summer GOP state Auditor Matt Rosendale had a small lead. But, since the summer, the Democratic candidate, former state Rep. Kathleen Williams, has lead by three points in two polls including one by A+ rated pollster Siena College. You can reach Williams’ campaign at https://kathleenformontana.com/.
There are a number of seats the Democrats can pick up this year, but the above four are probably the most important ones in case the presidential election is decided by the House. If you want to contribute or volunteer to House races this year, I suggest you start with these races. It could decide the presidency.
Now, this week’s polling review…
As of this morning, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average is Biden +10.1. (It was briefly +10.2 – the highest it has been all year.) At least 12 different pollsters released survey results of likely voters so far this week. The margin in these polls ranged from Biden +8 to Biden +16, with most being around Biden +11. HarrisX, a medicore (C rated) pollster with a significant GOP bias, released a survey of registered voters this week with a margin of Biden +5. That was by far the worst result for Biden this week (even Rasmussen has Biden up by 12).
Current Polling Average by Battleground State:
Florida: Biden +4.3
Georgia: Biden +1.4
Iowa: Biden +1.1
Minnesota: Biden +9.0
Maine: Biden +15.1
Michigan: Biden +8.2
Nevada: Biden +6.8
New Hampshire: Biden +10.7
North Carolina: Biden +2.8
Ohio: Biden +0.9
Pennsylvania: Biden +7.1
Texas: Trump +1.7
Wisconsin: Biden +7.3
Biden is pulling ahead in every battleground state except for Texas, which is still very close. Recent polling in Texas suggests that Biden is slowly gaining ground there. At this point, it doesn’t appear that New Hampshire and Maine (and perhaps Minnesota) even belong in this category any more.
The race appears to be getting away from Trump. Not just nationally, but in the states Trump is losing ground. The decline in support – mostly, but not entirely, from independents – has been significant since the first debate (and even more so since last weekend). Is it affecting his support in his rock-solid states? Yup. Let’s take a look at how Trump is doing in states he won by over fifteen points in 2016:
Alabama (2016: +27.73): Trump +17.9; change is -9.83
Arkansas (2016: +26.92): Trump +15.7; change is -11.22
Idaho (2016: +31.77): Trump +24.0; change is -7.77
Indiana (2016: +19.17): Trump +11.7; change is -7.47
Kansas (2016: +20.60): Trump +6.8; change is -13.8
Kentucky (2016: +29.84): Trump +18.1; change is -11.74
Louisiana (2016: +19.64): Trump +13.9; change is -5.74
Mississippi (2016: +17.83): Trump +12.2; change is – 5.63
Missouri (2016: +18.64): Trump +5.6 (recent poll: Trump +2) ; change is -13.04
Montana (2016: +20.42): Trump +8.7; change is -11.72
Nebraska (2016: +20.72): N/A
North Dakota (2016: +35.73): Trump +21.9; change is -13.83
Oklahoma (2016: +37.08): Trump +23.7; change is -13.38
South Dakota (2016: +29.79): N/A
Utah (2016: +18.08): Trump +12.7; change is -5.38
West Virginia (2016: +42.07): Trump +25.7 (recent poll: Trump +18) ; change is -16.37
Wyoming (2016: +46.30): N/A
Trump is underperforming in every state that gave him at least a fifteen point margin in 2016 (except for the three states for which we have no polling average data).
Senate races
In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock is making some headway in the special election. He is leading in every poll since late September. This race will certainly go to a run-off as none of the candidates in this jungle primary are close to 50%. Not long ago, this race looked like it would go to a run-off between the top two Republican candidates, but now Warnock is showing some strength.
In the regular Senate election in Georgia, Democrat Jon Ossoff is losing some ground. However, the polling still shows incumbent Senator David Perdue (R) failing to win 50%. If that holds, this race will also see a run-off.
Democrat Mark Kelly remains the clear favorite in Arizona. In a debate this week, incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R) criticized Trump and appeared to try to distance herself from him. For months, GOP Senate candidates have been cozying up to Trump. That may have helped them in the primaries, but the party is starting to realize how much Trump is dragging them down. Even big GOP donors are reportedly abandoning Trump to focus on holding the Senate. In Arizona, that switch in focus may be too little too late.
In South Carolina, Democrat Jaime Harrison has a real shot of defeating Senator Lindsey Graham (R). Cook Political Report has moved this race into the Toss-Up category. Harrison reportedly won big in the recent debate with Graham and there was polling movement and an increase in contributions immediately afterwards. The race is dead even right now.
Some big news comes from Kansas, where what should be an easy hold – even for an open seat – for the GOP is starting to look like a disaster. Internal GOP polling has Democrat Barbara Bollier in the lead by three points (45-42). Considering the 3-5 point house effect many internal polls have, this could mean Bollier is even further ahead. There hasn’t been a lot of other polling in Kansas, but what has been done balances out to an even race so far.
In Iowa, Democrat Theresa Greenfield is beginning to look like the favorite in her race against Senator Joni Ernst (R). Greenfield has lead in every poll since mid-September save one (which was even). A simple average of those eight polls shows Greenfield with a margin of +3.5. Three A+ pollsters surveyed Kansas during this period, including Selzer which is an Iowa pollster (this poll had Greenfield up by three points).
Democrat Cal Cunningham has not done himself any favors with his recent sexting scandal, but he still leads North Carolina’s Covid-positive Senator Thom Tillis (R) in every poll taken since the news broke.**** Cunningham is leading by anywhere from four to 13 points in recent polling.
Finally, in Maine the race for GOP Senator Susan Collins’s seat remains close. Democrat Sara Gideon appears to have a small, but not insignificant lead (maybe four or five points). The most recent poll has Gideon up by just one point. However, you can take those results with a grain of salt since the pollster is borderline unreliable (C/D rating).
Adjust your donor and volunteer strategies accordingly. Democrats have a real chance of picking up at least one Georgia seat, Iowa, and Kansas. And, don’t ignore Maine. That race may be a lot closer than we would like to believe.
* The New York Times reports today that the school that some of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s children attend has had an outbreak of Covid. Barrett is Trump’s nominee to fill the Supreme Court vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
** The House elected in this year’s election and seated on January 3rd will be the ones voting if the House has to decide the presidential race.
*** There is another scenario that could happen. If some states submit competing slates of Electors or if one state decides to submit its own slate of Electors rather than the one that won the state’s popular vote, Congress might refuse to accept any Electors from those states. That could throw out enough electoral votes so no one has a majority. Republicans are reportedly considering orchestrating this kid of constitutional crisis in states where they control the legislature or governor. This is yet another reason why it is important that everyone vote for the Democratic ticket this year. If you must hold your nose, then hold your damn nose.
**** The news of Cunningham’s scandal and Tillis’ positive Covid test came within 24 hours of each other.