I know that seems like a strange thing to say in a newsletter dedicated to understanding and discussing polling, but there are some good reasons to ignore the polling.
First, polling is useful for campaigns to understand how to deploy resources. Unless you are a campaign professional, you don’t need to worry about this right now. You might want to know how you personally might deploy your own resources to help. At this point, you probably already have favorites you want to support. At the end of this post I have some recommendations for supporting Senate candidates where your support can make a real difference with just a week to go. There are close House races in each of those states, so focus on those if you don’t have other races you are interested in helping out on.
Second, for a lot of you out there polling – especially this close to Election Day – can create despair or overconfidence (depending on the polling). Neither of these feelings are helpful; both discourage participation. Election Day is in one week! Early and mail voting is underway in most states already! You should be fixated on mobilizing voters right now. Whether that’s through phone banking, canvassing, text banking (my personal favorite), letter writing, check writing, or something else, maintaining and increasing your level of support and action is an important key to victory. Anything that might discourage you from doing that should be eliminated from your life for the next week.
Third, the polling averages are being gamed by Republicans right now. In the last couple of weeks, Republican polls that are largely not transparent as to their methodology have flooded the market, so to speak. The New York Times’ Nate Cohn and The Economist’s G. Elliot Morris - both serious polling analysts - have noticed and reported on this trend. It is not unusual for there to be fewer public polls during the midterms (as opposed to presidential elections), but this year there has been even fewer. Republicans appear to be taking advantage of this to skew the polling averages with some suspicious results.
They are also able to grab headlines because about half of the polling being dropped in the last couple of weeks has been by these Republican outfits. These polling results are contradicting what we are seeing in new voter registrations, early vote numbers, and applications for absentee ballots – as well as what some established and reputable pollsters are seeing. The results of the special elections this year (particularly in NY-19), which are often a bellwether for the general election also suggest that Democrats are likely to do better next week than the polling averages now suggest.
It seems clear that even among more reputable pollsters the election modeling going on in most surveys in this cycle assumes a whiter, older, and more male turnout, while the data we are seeing from voters right now suggests in many places there will be a less white, younger, and more female (perhaps exceptionally so) turnout. If the election modeling is wrong this year, it appears it will favor Democrats. Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonior have been doing a good job reporting on this on Twitter. Check out their threads for more information.
Senate Races That Need Your Support. I have ranked Senate races in order of importance – that is, if you want to know where your support is likely to help the most to ensure a Democratic victory. I am including several factors in determining this ranking, such as chance of losing/winning, whether it is an incumbent or pick-up opportunity, how much support the campaigns are currently getting, and relative likelihood that additional support will make a difference. For instance, Arizona is really important to win because a Democrat already holds the seat. The same is true for Nevada and Georgia, which are ranked ahead of Arizona. However, I rank Pennsylvania – an open seat that is a pick-up opportunity – ahead of Arizona. That’s because Sen. Mark Kelly has much better chance of winning than every other Democratic candidate on this list (with the possible exception of Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire) and has been a prolific fundraiser. Your support for Lt. Governor John Fetterman in Pennsylvania probably will help him more than it will for Kelly. But, the ranking is only for those of you who need to focus on one or a few races. All of these races are important.
1. Nevada (Incumbent: in danger of losing)
2. Georgia (Incumbent: close, but Warnock probably will win)
3. Pennsylvania (Open seat, pick-up opportunity: much closer than people probably realize)
4. Arizona (Incumbent: likely win, but the race has tightened)
5. Wisconsin (Republican incumbent: lack of national support to rebut attack ads has turned a winnable race into a probable loss)
6. New Hampshire (Incumbent: likely win, but race tightening a little)
7. Ohio (Open seat, pick-up opportunity: probable loss unless Democrats overperform this year)
ELECTION DAY IS IN ONE WEEK!
MOBILIZE AND VOTE!