This morning, Biden’s national lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average was back up to seven points. There has been a lot of polling over the past few days, none of which should make any Republicans feel confident about the election. It may be one reason they are pushing so hard to appoint a new Supreme Court justice. Some may think this is there last chance to do so, while betting that the Democrats will not do anything to counter the move once they are in power. The polling, however, does not take into account the multi-front voter suppression attacks being led by various right wing and Republican interests. Likely voters who are sampled in polls assume that they will be able to cast a vote that will be counted and no polls – to my knowledge – factor in any weighting based on voter suppression. Today’s post will be a polling review. Next week, I plan to start reporting on both voter suppression and voter protection activities currently underway.
Biden’s national lead, while up recently, is down a little over two points from the highwater mark during the summer. However, the lead is two points higher than where it was at in the late spring. Seven points is a big margin in a presidential race and if that holds, Biden should win a convincing victory in the popular vote and Electoral College. But, as Nate Cohn reports, a swing of two points in either direction can create very different results in November, “If Mr. Biden outperformed today’s polls by just two points, he would be declared the winner early on election night. Florida would be called by around 8 p.m., and Texas could be the state that makes Mr. Biden the president-elect. (Yes, Texas). He’d have a good shot at the largest electoral vote landslide since 1988. But if Mr. Trump outperformed the polls by the same margin, suddenly we’d have an extraordinarily close race on our hands, potentially waiting days or weeks while mail-in votes were counted in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.”
I have not focused much on Trump’s approval ratings over the past few weeks, but they are important. Many observers believe that an incumbent’s approval rate is the best indicator of whether the head to head polling is accurate. In examining the approval rate over many polls, we see similar issues to the head to head polling related to pollster quality. The worst pollsters are the ones who report that Trump’s approval/disapproval margin is close or even positive. But most other pollsters – including all the A rated pollsters – show the margin to be very close to what they are reporting on the head to head race. For example, a recent NPR/PBS NewHour/Marist Poll (A+) reports that 53% of registered voters disapprove of Trump while 42% approve. In the head to head, Biden leads with 52% and Trump has 42%. The approval/disapproval margin is one way to “check the math” on the head to head race.
I know some people are really concerned about the approval/disapproval margin in some of the polls, even some decent pollsters. But, you have to pay attention to the sample because a lot of pollsters survey adults on this question in addition to registered or likely voters.* As we’ve discussed previously, “adults” include many non-voters.
It appears we are starting to see more state polling, which is a good thing. As you know, the presidential election will be won or lost in the states not the in the national popular vote. Also, these polls help us understand the state of the Senate race. Some pollsters are even surveying certain House races. Although the polling average continues to look good for Biden, some of the recent polling is showing tighter races in the states (and in some cases nationally). This polling should be taken seriously as we are seeing some closer results from top-tier pollsters.
In Arizona, a new poll from ABC News/Washington Post (A+) shows the race significantly tightening in both the presidential and Senate contests. Biden leads by two points among registered voters, but Trump has a one point lead among likely voters. Democrat Mark Kelly leads GOP Senator Martha McSally by one point among likely voters and five among registered voters. These races are much closer than other recent polling in the Grand Canyon State. Siena/New York Times (A+) has Biden and Kelly doing much better (+9 and +8 respectively). That survey was completed before Justice Ginsburg passed away. One might conclude that this even upended the Arizona races, and that might be true. Monmouth, another A+ pollster, had both races close on September 17th. However, Morning Consult (B/C) released a Senate poll yesterday that had Kelly up by nine points among likely voters.
ABC News shows Trump leading Biden by four points in Florida among likely voters, but losing by one point among registered voters. The Tyson Group (B/C) and YouGov (B) both released polls over the weekend showing Biden with a two point lead among likely voters. In Georgia, Monmouth shows Trump leading by small margins among registered and likely voters. However, in the Senate special election, Democrat Raphael Warnock has moved into first place with 25% of the vote. Republicans Rep. Doug Collins and Sen. Kelly Loeffler are fighting for second place (24% and 23% respectively). Stacey Abrams has just announced her endorsement of Warnock, but that probably did not factor into this poll.
In Iowa, yet another of the six A+ rated pollster has released results. The Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. poll has the presidential race tied at 47%. In the Senate race, Democrat Theresa Greenfield has a three point lead over GOP Sen. Joni Ernst (45-42). Siena/New York Times released results in Maine showing Biden with a 17 point lead over Truno (55-38) and a two point lead in ME-02 (47-45). Quinnipiac found a similar advantage for Biden statewide, but a bigger lead for the former vice president in ME-02 (53-44). In the Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Sara Gideon, Siena has Gideon up by four points while Quinnipiac has her beating Collins by 12 points. Suffolk (A) finds Biden with a one point lead in ME-02 and a 12 point lead statewide. In the Senate race, Suffolk has Gideon up by 5-7 points over Collins.**
In other states, ABC News has Biden up by 16 points in Minnesota (57-41) and by six points in Wisconsin (52-46). Siena has Trump up by six points in Montana, Biden up by one point in North Carolina. Other recent polling in North Carolina is promising for Democrats. Siena has Democrat Cal Cunningham beating GOP Sen. Thom Tillis by five points and Gov. Roy Cooper leading in his reelection race also by five points. Suffolk has Cunningham up by four points and Emerson (A-) has the Democrat leading by six points. Both pollsters have Biden winning North Carolina by two to four points. Next door, Quinnipiac has Trump up by six points in South Carolina. The Senate race between Democrat Jaime Harrison and GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham is tied at 48%.
So, now we know what was up with the USC Dornsife tracking poll. Nate Cohn has an interesting analysis of the unusual tracking poll. Late last week, it appeared that the national race had suddenly closed to seven points from 13 seemingly overnight. However, according to Cohn, “it turns out that the U.S.C. pollsters were doing something odd. They showed their last seven days of results, but interviewed each respondent only once every two weeks. The problem is that one week of respondents was relatively favorable to Mr. Biden, just by chance, while another was relatively favorable to President Trump. As a result, U.S.C.’s results oscillated between a wide Biden lead and a tighter race, depending on whether the last week of interviews was the good or bad week for Mr. Biden. It turned the poll’s potential biggest advantage — the ability to track change over time — into a liability.
“Today, U.S.C. released the results over two weeks, not just one, and they tell a totally different story. The poll now shows a fundamentally stable race, with Mr. Biden maintaining something like a 10-point lead, rather than a volatile race that has swung from Biden plus-13 to Biden plus-7 and back. With U.S.C. showing less change, an important point in the case for substantial tightening can be crossed off the list. Mr. Biden’s lead bounced back to seven points in our average as a result.”
There you have it. Biden’s lead was not cut in half over night. It was never 13 points, but it was also never seven points. There was a reporting error, and the tracking poll’s lead for Biden remains stable at +10.
There are more polling results coming out every day now. It’s likely that next week, I will start reporting polling more regularly instead of biweekly if this keeps up. I will not be blogging over the next four or five days, but I will return early next week. So, for you subscribers out there, don’t be alarmed by the radio silence from me for a few days.
*The reason is that the question of approval or disapproval of the incumbent is one that is asked to get a sense of the public mood – and surveying all adults helps pollsters understand that dynamic.
** Maine is the only state that employs ranked choice voting at the federal (but not presidential) level. Suffolk made an attempt to survey voters on their first, second, and third choices. That’s likely why there is no single margin in that race.