Pollsters must also be able to answer basic questions about their methodology, including but not limited to the polling mode used (e.g., telephone calls, text messages, online panels), the source of their sample, their weighting criteria and the source of the poll’s funding. In most cases, a detailed written methodology statement is sufficient to satisfy this criterion, but we may contact pollsters directly to clarify methodological details and follow up occasionally to ensure the pollster is still meeting our standards.
Mary Radcliffe and G. Elliott Morris, 538
In the face of two highly dubious polls from Rasmussen about the 2020 general election and the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election, 538 finally removed the pollster over its refusal to clarify and be transparent about its methodology.
The latest Rasmussen poll seems to confirm that 538 was probably right to ban the pollster. Ithas Trump beating Biden by 10 points in a two-way race and by 12 points in a five-way race. New York Magazine warns about outliers – suggesting that this poll is clearly one of them. However, I have a different suspicion. The poll is purposeful garbage. Since Rasmussen won’t be honest about its methods, we can’t be sure either way. But there does seem to be a phenomenon going on that we need to pay attention to.
We are seeing more and more Republicans refuse to say that they would accept the results of the 2024 election. Auditioning vice-presidential candidate Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is the latest equivocator. Trump keeps repeating that he is way ahead in the polls – which is not true. In fact, the polls are generally close and Biden has been improving over the past several weeks. We have already seen a number of dubious pollsters dumping results that favor Trump, sometimes by margins almost as ridiculous as Rasmussen’s latest poll. In the past two election cycles we have seen this flooding-the-airwaves-with-BS from many of the same outfits, all seemingly in an attempt to influence the polling averages to make it look like Trump has more support than he has. It appears these things may be related. How?
The unreliable pollsters that are showing results with Trump comfortably ahead appear designed to give a rationale to Republicans to refuse to accept the election results should Trump lose in November. They will say, “the polls showed him ahead by a lot for months until the election, so the results cannot be right.” Is there a singular intentional plan behind this from somewhere in Trumpland? Probably not, but these “outlier” polls and election deniers are reinforcing each other. We cannot afford to ignore the real chance that the January 6th coup attempt was a dry run for 2024.
Tomorrow, I will discuss whether Minnesota and Virginia are really in play for Republicans and whether North Carolina and Florida are really in play for Democrats. Both campaigns want us to believe this – or perhaps just want each other to believe it. There may be a kernel of truth to each party’s argument, but there is more going on here. Friday’s post will be the first in an occasional series about labor organizing and politics and its potential impact on the election. If I have time this week, I hope to drop a post about a big challenge for nonprofits in assisting voters this year in Wisconsin.