More Reasons to be Optimistic
November 1, 2024
This is going to be a short one. Things are getting really busy for me in Philadelphia, and it’s getting difficult to find time to write. But I wanted to share some news that you might have missed. It should help you feel emboldened to get out and help make sure Harris and the Democrats rout fascism on Tuesday. It’s always better to feel like you are winning than be scared your losing, which leads us to our first bit of good news.
Democratic Enthusiasm Advantage: Axios reports that “Emboldened allies of Vice President Harris are circulating new Gallup data that shows Democratic enthusiasm at a (slightly) higher level than it was for Barack Obama’s big 2008 victory. . . Gallup polling shows Dems with a 10-point enthusiasm advantage over Republicans.” Enthusiasm is very important for turnout. A strong advantage in enthusiasm for one side is usually an indicator of a winning campaign.
Late-deciders Breaking for Harris: David Plouffe wrote on Twitter that late-deciding voters are “breaking by double digits” for Harris, with “the remaining undecideds looking more friendly” to them than Trump. According to Politico: Plouffe’s “comments echo those shared by senior campaign officials earlier Friday on a call with reporters.” The White House reporter for Real Clear Politics tweeted out the same thing earlier today.
Harris Leads the Early Vote: According to the Washington Post: “Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with an advantage of 19 to 29 points among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.” If this is true, it could be big. There is likely a good amount of Republican-leaning voters out there who don’t want to vote for Trump, but are having trouble voting for a Democrat. Something similar was true in late October 1980 with a significant amount of undecided voters wary of whether Reagan was capable of being president. What can turn undecided voters like this who seem to be looking for permission to vote for a candidate they feel like they should not support is a surprising event that clarifies things for them. In 1980 it was Reagan’s debate performance against Carter just a week before the election. This year, it is the Nazi Rally at Madison Square Garden. If a week from now we are looking at exit polling data telling us that a lot of Republican voters went for Harris, that rally will almost certainly be why.
That’s all for tonight! Don’t forget to vote!