Path to Victory
Trump’s new gambit to win the election
Trump’s new electoral strategy appears to look towards Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for help. If Biden wins Florida, Trump needs those four states plus Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. If Trump wins Florida, he still needs to win two of the four plus PA, NC, and GA. There is reason for the Trump campaign to be worried about Florida. The polling has been good there for Biden (he’s currently leading in the polling average (+2.4 points) - yesterday, Monmouth (A+) found Biden up by five points - and former NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg has pledged to spend $100 million to help Biden in the Sunshine State alone.
Let’s look at the FiveThirtyEight polling averages in these states:
Western/Midwest Four
Arizona: Biden +5.0
Minnesota: Biden +7.6
Nevada: Biden +5.6
Wisconsin: Biden +6.8
Eastern Three
Georgia: Trump +1.3
North Carolina: Biden +1.0
Pennsylvania: Biden +4.9
As you can see, Trump has a polling average lead in just one of these states right now. And how reliable is Georgia for him? Well, the Atlanta Journal & Constitution reported yesterday that Sen. David Perdue (R), who is in a tight race with Democrat Jon Ossoff, is distancing himself from Trump. Perdue months ago warned Republicans that Georgia was in jeopardy of going blue this year. He’s been a big supporter of Trump. That he thinks he needs to distance himself from Trump in Georgia tells you that despite a small polling average lead, the Trump is not well liked among enough voters to make the difference in the Senate election. So, this is his easy state of the seven he needs to win if Biden takes Florida.
Despite pulling ads from Arizona last week, Trump is going back up there. He is pulling ads from Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. It’s probably their best move. If they cannot win Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina without a big push then they are probably not going to win the election. They have spent 80% of their cash already and Biden is outraising him now. It’s clear they cannot compete everywhere and must choose wisely. This new strategy tells me that Trump thinks he may lose Florida. In any case, he needs a number of these states even if he wins Florida. And that path assumes Ohio, North Carolina, and Iowa will vote for him. And this is how difficult this path is for Trump: if he wins Florida and all seven of the states above, he’ll still be short of 270 electoral votes if Texas goes for Biden. Is that possible? It sure is, but don’t count on it.
The race in Texas is even, there are 12 competitive House districts and 34 competitive state House districts, and Biden has made a fairly decent investment in the state. However, we’ve seen in the past that trends in national elections matter. If Trump runs the table on Florida and those seven states, Texas is likely to go for him too. But, think of this. Trump has to campaign and spend money across eight states that he is currently losing (Georgia aside) while assuming others will go for him even though the polling is not kind to him. Biden could focus on Texas and win the election with that one state. That would not be a smart strategy for Biden, but it illustrates how tricky Trump’s path to victory is.
Right as I was about to publish this post, some new polls came in from ABC News/Washington Post (A+):
This complicates Trump’s strategy even more, especially in Minnesota.
One of the most interesting dynamics in this election is that general election voting has already started. Election Day in many states runs straight through the month of October. So, current polling trends matter quite a bit if Biden can bank those votes before November 3rd. The same goes in places that Trump is leading - too bad he's against vote by mail.