“The massive fraud that people are talking about doesn’t exist and won’t exist.”
— Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R), quoted by the Philadelphia Inquirer, dismissing Trump’s claims there will be massive voter fraud in the November election. Ridge is the chair of VoteSafe, a bipartisan group pushing for safe ballot options.
Is Trump closing the gap?
The race appears to be tightening in some places. Don’t be too alarmed. Not only is that normal for a presidential election after Labor Day, Biden’s lead over the summer was probably too big – at least in some states. (Does anyone really think that Biden was +13 in Florida? Quinnipiac reported that in one poll.) Nevertheless, Biden’s lead in the FiveThirtyEight national polling average this morning was +7.5 points. And yesterday’s tracking poll from USC Dornsife has Biden up by 12 points.
Some battleground states are getting closer. Wisconsin, however, is not one of them. There was a lot of polling of likely voters in the Badger State this past week with Biden leading in all surveys. While Marquette Law School (A/B) had Biden only four points ahead, but the other highly-rated pollster that surveyed Wisconsin this week, Emerson (A-), had Biden up by seven points. Most of the polling this week has Biden up by between six and eight points. The polling average in Wisconsin, now at Biden +6.9, has held steady since June.
Florida is a different story. The current polling average for the Sunshine State is Biden +2.7, which is down four points since August 24th. Marist College (A+) released a poll this week that has the race even. Larry Sabato thinks that if Florida is close to even we have to assume it is going for Trump. That’s because the Republicans have won a number of very close elections in this state over the past 20 years. The GOP may have a better ground game in Florida, but it’s also true that they have had a number of statewide officials who have had no problem inserting themselves in elections in a very partisan way. This year is no exception. But, those aren’t the only things that suggest favoring Trump in Florida. In 2018, the incompetent Democratic elections officer in Broward County approved a confusing ballot design that many think cost Sen. Bill Nelsen (D) the election. Florida is a must-win state for Trump, but not for Biden. However, if Biden wins Florida when the returns come in on November 3rd we’ll be able to call the election for him early. Don’t expect that.
CPR has moved Nevada from Likely Dem to Lean Dem and Florida from Lean Dem to Toss-Up. The consensus electoral map – to which CPR contributes – has Biden with 291 electoral votes. The current Toss-Up states are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Georgia. Arizona is leaning to Biden and Texas is leaning to Trump in the latest mapping iteration.
Don’t get too excited about the Senate (but winning a majority is still in sight)
The Senate could really break for the Democrats if Biden wins big. Most states are not immune to national trends, which is why the close margins in Texas, Ohio, and Iowa matter. Biden could win these states with a big night in the popular vote, which in turn would make for a big night for him in the Electoral College. However, the smart money would be for Biden to just miss on these states this year. Getting back to the Senate, a big night for Biden could mean the Democrat caucus ending up with 53 or 54 seats. But, as Sabato notes, considering the fundamentals, at this point it is more likely that the Senate is either tied 50-50 or one party has a majority of 51-49. Sabato is a more cautious prognosticator than others, but that does not mean he is wrong.
Control of the Senate could come down to run-off elections on January 5th in Georgia. The special election is almost certainly going to have a run-off, although it is possible that both run-off candidates will be Republicans. The regular election could also go to a run-off, but it would be between GOP Sen. David Perdue and Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff. Mark your calendars because volunteers may be necessary in Georgia during December and the first week of January. Georgia needs more polling, but what we have so far suggests a tight contest for Ossoff (who has lead in three of four polls, but by small margins) and that Democrat Raphael Warnock has a good shot at making the run-off in the special election.
Biden is spending a lot more in some key battleground states than Trump is.
The Washington Post confirms what I suspected in my last post. New campaign manager Bill Stepien fears the campaign running out of cash late in the campaign, so he has ordered cutting advertising in a number of battleground states until the last thirty days of the campaign. This has many Republicans concerned because the campaign has gone dark in states that have competitive down ballot races where a Trump victory could help pull the GOP candidates across the finish line. Outside groups are trying to make up the gap, but the combination of Biden and Democratic outside groups is outspending them. The Trump campaign is spending money on online advertising, where they are apparently outspending Biden. However, the online ads for Trump are aimed at states like California, New York, and Texas, suggesting they are designed for fundraising. Free spending former Trump campaign manager Brad Parscale assumed the campaign would make up the cash in small donor contributions once the summer ended. Stepien apparently does not agree.
To give you an idea of how much Biden is outspending Trump, here is the spending in three battleground states over the past two weeks as reported by the Washington Post:
Florida: Biden $20.5 million, Trump $7.8 million
Michigan: Biden $9.3 million, Trump $560,000
Pennsylvania: Biden $17.7 million, Trump $6.1 million
Random (but Important) Campaign Notes:
New data on convention bounces
According to FiveThirtyEight, “Several pollsters have asked Americans whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of both Trump and Biden since the Republican National Convention ended on Aug. 27. On average, these polls gave Biden a 48% favorable rating and a 46% unfavorable rating — or a net favorability rating of +3 percentage points. That’s a slight, 4-point increase from his net favorability rating in the same polls before the conventions. … Trump, on the other hand, went into the convention period with lower favorables than Biden and does not appear to have emerged from it any better liked. Before the conventions, his average net favorability (according to these same pollsters) was -13 percentage points. … His net favorability rating is now -14 points.”
Big lead in new voter registrations and absentee ballots for Democrats in many places.
Not only are Democrats requesting absentee ballots in higher percentages than Republicans, but there are a number of Democrats who did not vote in 2016 requesting absentee ballots. A month ago, the New York Times reported that in the immediate aftermath of the murder of George Floyd and the protests over police brutality across the nation (i.e., the first half of June), Democratic voter registration increased by 50% over the previous month compared to just six percent for Republicans. TargetSmart reports big voter registration increases for Democrats in swing states. We’ll take a closer look at absentee/mail-in voting and new registrations next week.