In just a few hours after posting yesterday’s Polling Week in Review, some interesting polling and campaign news dropped. First, three new polls show Biden with a wide national lead over Trump.
University of Maryland Critical Issues (B/C): Biden 50%, Trump 37%; Biden +13 (N.B., this poll surveyed adults, not registered or likely voters; see discussion below)
USC Dornslife (B/C): Biden 52%, Trump 41%; Biden +11
Data for Progress (B-): Biden 53%, Trump 43%; Biden +10
I normally do not comment on polls that only survey “adults,” rather than either registered or likely voters. When you see poll results on this blog – excepting the example above – the polls are of either registered or likely voters. But, today I am adding the University of Maryland poll to show how big Biden’s lead is among the general public. All of the polls I have seen that have surveyed adults have shown a bigger lead for the former vice president than those polling registered or likely voters. Some pollsters have released results with adults and either registered and/or likely voters, and in those cases the results for adults show bigger leads for Biden.
Less predictably, but more often than not, pollsters that survey both registered and likely voters show a bigger margin for Biden among registered voters. However, unlike the difference between adults and voters, sometimes the margin is greater among registered voters, sometimes it is greater among likely voters, and sometimes they have the same margin. But, typically, surveys of registered voters show bigger margins for Biden than likely voters, and surveys of adults seem to always show a bigger margin for Biden. We’ll revisit this issue when we get closer to November 3rd and likely voter screens (particularly where they consist of respondents saying they plan to vote) become more reliable.
Battleground State Polls
Hodas & Associates (no rating):
Michigan: Biden 52%, Trump 41%; Biden +11
Pennsylvania: Biden 51%, Trump 45%; Biden +6
Wisconsin: Biden 52%, Trump 44%; Biden +8
Public Policy Polling (B):
Minnesota: Biden 52%, Trump 44%; Biden +8
Data for Progress (B-):
Texas: Biden 48%, Trump 45%; Biden +3
In Arizona, the Trump Campaign has decided to cancel all of its advertising after Labor Day. The polling continues to show Biden with a lead in the Grand Canyon State. The Trump Campaign claims that their strategy is to air advertising during early voting periods. In Arizona, early voting starts on October 7th. The campaign claims it will start advertising there at that time. We’ll have to look at whether the campaign is sticking to that strategy in other states or whether this is just an excuse to cut back on spending money in a state they now think they are likely to lose. My hypothesis is the latter, but we’ll have to look at the campaign’s spending trends in other early voting states to know for sure.