“Donald Trump is a liar who has killed people, straight up.”
— Michigan Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D)
“It’s an extraordinary flip of the mood in the country in a short amount of time… that portends change. Whether voters hold Trump or Republicans in the House or Senate accountable or not, they’re still going to vote for change.”
— Republican pollster Neil Newhouse
Starting today and ongoing through November 3rd I will be adding another polling review post each week. We are seven weeks out from Election Day and the polling will be intense. For instance, look at what happened this weekend. It doesn’t make sense for me to hold off talking about these numbers until the end of the week since the news will be moving even faster than it has up until now. I will do a review on Mondays and Fridays until the last week of October. At that time, I plan to resume including polling updates in every post through the election unless it makes sense to start that earlier in the month. I’ll use the amount of new polling as a guide.
So, the race is tightening. Slightly.
The quotes above give us some idea of how difficult this election should be for the incumbent. Yet, public opinion is fairly inflexible this year. Fox News (A-) and the USC Dornsife (B/C) tracking poll showed the national presidential race tightening over the weekend. USC Dornsife showed Biden +15 on Friday, Biden +14 over the weekend, and Biden +10 this morning. Fox News, which last had Biden +7 on August 13th, this weekend showed a closer race with Biden up by five points. However, Biden is at 51% in this poll compared to 49% in the previous one, which may actually show increased strength for the Biden campaign (breaking 50% is important). These polls, and a poll of just adults from Ipsos (B), which strangely found the race at Biden +4 (polls of just adults usually show bigger margins for Biden), have closed the gap slightly in the FiveThirtyEight polling average this morning to Biden +7.1 from Biden +7.5 on Friday morning.
If you are interested in what the forecasting is showing, FiveThirtyEight has Biden with a 75% chance of winning the election. The Economist has Biden with an 86% chance of winning. Both of these forecasts do not rule out a Trump victory at this point. While The Economist is new to the forecasting game, and may be overestimating the chances at this point, there is still a non-trivial chance of a Trump victory in their forecast.
Good news for Biden – or perhaps more correctly, bad news for Trump – is that most voters appear to have made up their mind. Why is this bad news for Trump? He has not lead in any reputable poll since April and there are seven weeks left in the campaign. According to a report in Axios, “The 2020 presidential election features a pared-back pool of undecided voters after four years of a highly controversial and media-saturated presidency. Entrenched views mean there’s less reason for campaigns to try to change voters’ minds than to convince those already with them to vote — and help educate them about mail-in and early-vote procedures to make sure their votes count.”
According to Harry Enten of The Upshot: “Let’s state it up front: winning the popular vote means nothing in and of itself. You only become president if you win the Electoral College. That said, the national polling matters a lot. We have a ton of it, unlike in a number of swing states. It’s more accurate than the state polling on average. Most importantly, we have a fairly good idea of what Biden’s margin needs to be nationally in order to win in the Electoral College.”
Enten seems to agree with Nate Silver’s assessment last week of Biden’s Electoral College chances based on popular vote argin. “If Biden wins by more than 5 points nationally, he’s almost certainly going to win enough electoral votes to get to at least 270 and take the Electoral College. There’s simply little record of a difference between the margin in the key swing states and the national vote being greater than 5 points. If Biden wins by somewhere between 3 and 5 points nationally, he’ll be the clear favorite in the Electoral College, even if there is some non-negligible chance Trump could emerge victorious.”
While the national race is tightening (slightly), there is good news for Democrats in battleground states. For some folks, it’s worrisome news, since the gap is only three points in New Hampshire and four in Nevada according to excellent pollster Siena College (A+). But, if you worry about that being accurate, then you should be pleased by the other polls Siena released this weekend:
Minnesota: Biden 50%, Trump 41%; Biden +9
Wisconsin: Biden 48%, Trump 43%; Biden +5
That Wisconsin lead is down from Siena’s last poll there pretty significantly, but they last polled there in June. The average Wisconsin lead for Biden is holding steady at +6.5 according to FiveThirtyEight. Minnesota appears to a be a solid Biden state despite Republicans insisting that it could go for Trump. The state was a razor close win for Clinton in 2016, succumbing to some of the same factors that threw Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to Trump. But, this year, the polling is showing comfortable leads for Biden.
A new CBS News/YouGov poll (A) in Minnesota finds the same nine point margin for Biden (50-41). One reason for that may be the high number of educated voters in Minnesota. The education demographic appears to be a very strong indicator of whether one supports Biden or Trump. It’s the reason why Sabato moved Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from Toss-Up to Lean Dem. NE-02 has more college educated persons (40%) than any state save Massachusetts.
Three polls over the weekend show leads in Arizona for Biden. CBS News/YouGov has it a three point race, with Biden at 47% and Trump at 44%. Gravis Marketing (C) has it closer with Biden up by two points (50-48). A OH Predictive Insights poll (B/C) has Biden up by ten points (52-42). Biden is currently leading the Grand Canyon State in the FiveThirtyEight polling average by 5.1 points, up from 3.6 points a month ago.
Florida is definitely getting closer, as I reported on Friday, but it really should not surprise anyone. The Sunshine State will be close, perhaps another election where the margin is one point or less. Florida is an important electoral state. It has 29 electoral votes and is a must-win state for Trump. There is no real path to victory for him without Florida. Biden, on the other hand, will likely win the election with a victory in Florida. However, he has a number of routes to victory without it. It’s too big an electoral prize to give up on since it is always so close (unlike Texas). With all this in mind, Michael Bloomberg announced over the weekend that he would spend $100 million in Florida to help Biden win. According to the Washington Post, “Bloomberg made the decision to focus his final election spending on Florida last week, after news reports that Trump had considered spending as much as $100 million of his own money in the final weeks of the campaign, Bloomberg’s advisers said. Presented with several options on how to make good on an earlier promise to help elect Biden, Bloomberg decided that a narrow focus on Florida was the best use of his money.” Let’s home Bloomberg sticks to this promise (he’s reneged on them in the past).
Later this week (I am shooting for tomorrow), we’ll take a look at the ballot problems in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In both states, challenges to the exclusion of the Green Party ticket is threatening to (or accomplished) a delay in sending out absentee ballots. Expect more voter suppression/voter protection posts over the next few weeks as we look at some under-the-radar problems that could impact the election.