Now we have another big story that threatens to impact the race, but since the news of Trump’s tax returns broke only yesterday we will have to wait a few days before we get polling that includes voter reaction to it.
The national polling continues to show a stable, significant lead for Biden. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average as of this writing is Biden +7.2. Several A+ pollsters have weighed in over the past few days showing double digit leads for Biden (the lower rated pollsters bring the average back down). Siena/New York Times has Biden up by eight among likely voters. ABC News/Washington Post has Biden up by ten points with both registered and likely voters in head to head matchups. Biden’s lead drops to six when the Libertarian and Green candidates are included. The delta comes largely from Biden’s support as Trump cannot seem to get more than 43% in the ABC News poll. The Siena and ABC News polls were in the field last week. This means the respondents were aware of the news of RBG’s passing, but not about Trump’s tax returns. Also notable among national polls recently, the USC/Dornsife (B/C) tracking poll has Biden holding steady with a ten point lead.
As I noted last week, we are starting to see more state-level polling from quality pollsters. Let’s take a look at recent results by battleground state. The polling average is from today, the polls were in the field over the past week, and where pollsters reported results from both registered and likely voters I used the likely voter result.
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)
Data for Progress (B-): Biden 45%, Trump 46%; Trump +1
Hart Research Associates (B/C): Biden 53%, Trump 42%; Biden +11
Data Orbital (A/B): Biden 49%, Trump 47%; Biden +2
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +3.6
Florida (29 Electoral Votes)
Data for Progress (B-): Biden 46%, Trump 43%; Biden +2
Hart Research Associates (B/C): Biden 51%, Trump 45%; Biden +6
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +1.7
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)
YouGov (B): Biden 46%, Trump 47%; Trump +1
Siena/NYT (A+): Biden 45%, Trump 45%; even
Data for Progress (B-): Biden 46%, Trump 46%; even
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Trump +1.1
Iowa (6 Electoral Votes)
Monmouth (A+): Biden 46%, Trump 49%; Trump +3
Siena/NYT (A+): Biden 45%, Trump 42%; Biden +3
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Trump +0.8
Minnesota (10 Electoral Votes)
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (B+): Biden 48%, Trump 42%; Biden +5
Suffolk University (A): Biden 47%, Trump 40%; Biden +7
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +8.7
North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes)
Meredith College (B/C): Biden 46%, Trump 45%; even (Biden with very slight lead)
YouGov (B): Biden 48%, Trump 46%; Biden +2
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +1.1
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)
UNLV Business School (no rating): Biden 46%, Trump 41%; Biden +5
Rasmussen (C+): Biden 49%, Trump 48%; Biden +1
ALG Research (B/C): Biden 47%, Trump 43%; Biden +5
Fox News (A-): Biden 50%, Trump 40%; Biden +10
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +6.5
Pennsylvania (20 Electoral Votes)
TIPP (A/B): Biden 50%, Trump 45%; Biden +5
Trafalgar Group (C-): Biden 48%, Trump 46%; Biden +2
Hart Research Associates (B/C): Biden 55%, Trump 42%; Biden +11
Fox News (A-): Biden 51%, Trump 44%; Biden +7
YouGov (B): Biden 49%, Trump 45%; Biden +4
SurveyMonkey (D-): Biden 52%, Trump 45%; Biden +7
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +4.9
Texas (38 Electoral Votes)
Public Policy Polling (B): Biden 48%, Trump 48%; even
Data for Progress (B-): Biden 45%, Trump 46%; Trump +1
Siena/NYT: Biden 43%, Trump 46%; Trump +3
Quinnipiac University (B+): Biden 45%, Trump 50%; Trump +5
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Trump +1.9
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)
Marist College (A+): Biden 54%, Trump 44%; Biden +10
Hart Research Associates (B/C): Biden 51%, Trump 44%; Biden +7
YouGov (B): Biden 50%, Trump 46%; Biden +4
SurveyMonkey (D-): Biden 51%, Trump 46%; Trump +5
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average: Biden +6.8
Nebraska and Maine both apportion electoral votes to their Congressional districts. In each of these states one of the districts is competitive (NE-02 and ME-02). The one electoral vote each state has could be important if the race in the Electoral College is close. It is possible for the vote to be tied at 269 for each candidate, so these districts cannot be easily ignored. We have some polling in each district over the past few days. Siena/NYT (A+) has Biden leading in NE-02 by seven points (48-41). Colby College (no rating) has Biden up by three points in ME-02 (46-43).
Should you be worried about the Newsweek article claiming Biden is doing worse than Clinton right now?
No. Newsweek published a piece this past week claiming (1) that Biden is doing worse in the polling than Clinton was at this time in 2016 (not true) and (2) 2020 polls don’t include educational weighting (this was generally true in 2016, but it is not true now - at least among the quality pollsters). To prove their point, the cherry-picked a poll or two. I won’t even link to that article it is such BS, but I know some of you might read it and get anxious about it. In fact, that is almost certainly what the Newsweek editorial staff want you to do.
Newsweek is turning into a garbage magazine probably because it is owned by a couple of trustees of a small right-wing Christian college who have been in talks to sell the once-important weekly to fascist Steve Bannon. Remember a few weeks ago when the staff at Newsweek revolted after the magazine published an absolutely nonsensical right wing hit piece on Kamala Harris, claiming she was ineligible to be president because her mother was from India? This is what Newsweek is now. Don’t bother reading it anymore; you have more important things to do.