“Eager Georgia voters swarmed to polling places Monday morning for the start of three weeks of early voting before Election Day.”
The polling new keeps getting worse for the GOP. This morning the FiveThirtyEight polling average for the national presidential race was Biden +10.6. This is the largest margin in the race thus far and the trendline continues to increase sharply over the past week. The reason for this is a convergence of polling that shows Biden with double-digit (or nearly so) leads coupled with the aging out of older, closer polling. Aside from terrible, if not fabricated, polling from outfits like Zogby and Trafalgar Group – which still show Biden with leads, just much smaller ones – pretty much all pollsters are showing the gap increasing as the former vice president expands his lead. One hint that the terrible pollsters are likely to be wrong – aside from being outliers to the rest of the polling community – is that Rasmussen now has Biden leading by 12 points.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
This morning, IBD/TIPP (A/B) released a new poll that has Biden up by nine points in a race that includes the Libertarian and Green candidates (who together get three percent of the vote). In a straight head to head with Trump, Biden is up by 10 points. The USC/Dornsife tracking poll (B/C) has Biden’s lead at 13 points. ABC News/Washington Post (A+) released a poll on Sunday finding Biden leading by 12 points in the four-way race (the minor party candidates also get three percent in this poll). Friday’s Ipsos (B-) poll had Biden up by 12 points. The interesting thing about these and other recent polls is that Biden’s lead is bigger now with likely voters than with registered voters. It is common to see the Democratic candidate doing better among registered voters, so this development is a significant one. It suggests that Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting this year than Republicans.
The suspect pollsters have released some survey findings over the past few days. Most are out of step with what every other pollster is finding (HarrisX [C] has Biden up by five and Zogby [C+] has him up by three). The exception, as noted above, is Rasmussen. Just a couple of weeks ago, Rasmussen had the race even (at a time in which the A level pollsters were finding Biden up by 6-10 points. A week later Rasmussen had Biden up by eight, and now it has Biden up by 12. This is not surprising for Rasmussen. It has a habit of very favorable polling for Republicans until the last few weeks of a campaign in which its polls start looking like the consensus polling. My guess is that one reason we heard over the weekend about Republicans giving up on Trump in an effort to save the Senate is because Rasmussen showed them that it was time to stop believing their own BS.
State polling
The state polling is generally closer than the national polling, except in states that either side has solidly in its camp. While almost all of the state polling in the past few days has been done by average and above average pollsters, there are several polls from fairly lousy pollsters. Trafalgar Group has Trump up by four points in Arizona despite the fact that the polling average in the state is Biden +3.9. Trafalgar incorporates a “shy Trump voter” theory into its methodology despite there being no evidence for it. This pollster assumes that there is a significant portion of the electorate who is for Trump but will either not participate in polling or lies to the interviewer. Morning Consult recently tested this proposition and found no basis for this theory. This is the way that Trafalgar puts its thumb on the scale to tip its poll findings in the GOP’s favor. Being a mediocre or lousy pollster does not mean that you will never get it right, but the results from the C and C/D pollsters always tend to be off by several points in one direction or the other.
The polling in the Great Lakes states over the weekend was favorable to Biden. He is up by solid margins across several pollsters in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. There were several polls in Georgia over the weekend showing how close the race is there. The Peach State looks like a Toss-Up, and the polling average there has Biden ahead by just under one point.
Arizona – Trafalgar Group (C-): Biden 44%, Trump 48%; Trump +4
Arizona – Redfield & Wilson (no rating): Biden 49%, Trump 43%; Biden +6
Florida – Saint Leo University (C/D): Biden 49%, Trump 43%; Biden +6 (this is a RV poll)
Florida - Redfield & Wilson: Biden 49%, Trump 44%; Biden +5.
Georgia – Public Policy Polling (B): Biden 47%, Trump 46%; Biden +1
Georgia – Landmark Communications (B): Biden 47%, Trump 49%; Trump +2
Georgia – University of Georgia (B/C): Bident 46%, Trump 48%; Trump +1 (difference is in rounding error)
Iowa – YouGov (B): Biden 49%, Trump 49%; even
Michigan – Siena College/NYT (A+): Biden 48%, Trump 40%; Biden +8
Michigan – YouGov: Biden 52%, Trump 46%; Biden +6
Michigan – Great Lakes Poll: Biden 50%, Trump 43%; Biden +7
Michigan - Redfield & Wilson: Biden 50%, Trump 42%; Biden +8
Montana – PPP: Biden 46%, Trump 41%; Trump +6
Nevada – YouGov: Biden 52%, Trump 46%; Biden +6
North Carolina - Redfield & Wilson: Biden 49%, Trump 44%; Biden +5
Ohio – Great Lakes Poll: Biden 45%, Trump 47%; Trump +2
Pennsylvania – Whitman Insight Strategies (no rating): Biden 51%, Trump 46%; Biden +5
Pennsylvania – Great Lakes Poll (C/D): Biden 50%, Trump 45%; Biden +5
Pennsylvania – Redfield & Wilson: Biden 49%, Trump 42%; Biden +8
Texas – YouGov: Biden 45%, Trump 50%; Trump +5
Wisconsin - Siena College/NYT: Biden 51%, Trump 41%; Biden +10
Wisconsin – Great Lakes Poll (C/D): Biden 49%, Trump 43%; Biden +7
Wisconsin – Redfield & Wilson: Biden 51%, Trump 41%; Biden +10
Senate polling
The Senate races are looking more difficult for the GOP to defend as PPP finds Montana tied. The approval ratings for both candidates are nearly identical as well. This is a race that may come down to the wire. Trump is leading Biden by single digits in this state, which he won by over 20 points in 2016. Any further erosion of support for Trump might spell the end of Steve Daines’ Senate career. In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock has made significant and undeniable progress in the special election for the seat currently held by Senator Kelly Loeffler (R). In three polls, Warnock is in first place with a clear lead (in two of those polls he has a significant lead). If no one gets 50% on November 3rd, the top two finishers will compete in a run-off in early January. Loeffler and GOP Rep. Doug Collins are in a tight race for that second place finish. The regular election remains close, except for University of Georgia’s poll that finds Senator David Perdue (R) up by eight points. Thus far, that poll appears to be an outlier.
Michigan’s Senate race appears to be getting tighter. Senator Gary Peters (D) has been considered the second weakest Democratic incumbent this year, but he’s mostly led by a clear margin. The red flag in this polling is Siena’s finding that Peters is just one point ahead of his Republican opponent. Siena is one of the country’s best pollsters. While most Democrats expect Senator Doug Jones (D-AL) to lose this year, much of the calculus for winning back a Senate majority assumes Peters holds Michigan. We might need to pay special attention to this race, so hopefully we’ll get some more polling on it during this week. In the meantime, if you have an extra buck to spare or some extra time to volunteer you might want to consider helping out Peters.
Arkansas – American Research Group (B): Harrington (L) 38%, Cotton (R) 49%; Cotton +11
Arizona – Trafalgar Group (C-): Kelly (D) 47%, McSally 45%; Kelly +2
Georgia (regular) – PPP: Ossoff (D) 44%, Perdue (R) 43%; Ossoff +1
Georgia (regular) – Landmark Communications: Ossoff (D) 46%, Perdue (R) 47%; Perdue +1
Georgia (regular) – University of Georgia (B/C): Ossoff (D) 41%, Perdue (R) 49%; Perdue +8
Georgia (special) – PPP: Warnock (D) 41%, Loeffler (R) 24%, Collins (R) 22%; Warnock +17
Georgia (special) – Landmark Communications: Warnock (D) 36%, Loeffler (R) 26%, Collins (R) 23%; Warnock +10
Georgia (special) – University of Georgia: Warnock (D) 28%, Loeffler (R) 22%, Collins (R) 21%; Warnock +6
Iowa – YouGov: Greenfield 47%, Ernst 43%; Greenfield +4
Michigan – Siena College/NYT: Peters 43%, James 42%; Peters +1
Michigan – YouGov: Peters (D) 47%, James (R) 44%; Peters +3
Michigan – Great Lakes Poll: Peters (D) 48%, James 42%; Peters +6
Montana – PPP: Bullock (D) 48%, Daines (R) 48%; even
Texas – YouGov: Hegar (D) 42%, Cornyn (R) 50%; Cornyn +8
Finally, you might be wondering why I included the Arkansas Senate race. It’s a solid GOP state and no one expects incumbent Senator and budding fascist presidential candidate Tom Cotton (R) to lose. The Democrats have no candidate in this race. A few opted not to run and the one that did quit the race. Cotton’s opponent is the Libertarian candidate, who is getting a third of the vote. It’s unlikely that a third of the electorate support Libertarians. It is more likely these are anti-Cotton votes. There is no reason for the Democrats to concede the race to Cotton, no matter how Republican the state seems now. First, Democrats should be forcing the GOP to spend money in Arkansas. That’s one very important reason to run candidates for every office. Second, Democrats should be taking on the guy who is trying to be Trump’s authoritarian successor. Third, you’ll never win if you don’t run. And lastly, there are some indications this year that Arkansas might not be a deep red as people think. Rep. French Hill (R-AL-02) is in a very tough race against a Democratic state Senator whose approval rating is reportedly better than Hill’s. Trump is leading in this state, but not by the margin he won in 2016. And there is a tradition of Democratic politics in this state (Bill Clinton and Dale Bumpers were both Arkansans) that is not necessarily a thing of the past. We see something similar happening in West Virginia too. Neither state will go for Biden this year, but it will be closer. Whether that’s a signal of demographic change favoring Democrats or not is something we need to look at after November 3rd.