The polling in the past week has given Republicans hope that they could still yet win the Senate next month. We are seeing races move towards the GOP in Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, and Pennsylvania while Ohio and North Carolina remain even. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) remains in the lead in the Keystone State, but Republican attack ads on crime, along with GOP voters coming home to TV grifter Mehmet Oz (R-PA), have narrowed the race enough that the Cook Political Report has moved the race from Leans Democrat to Toss-Up. In the other states noted above, Republican candidates are outpolling their Democratic opponents in the most recent polling or keeping even with them. Florida is starting to look out of reach and we still have to pay attention to how few Democratic candidates are breaking 50% in the polling even where they have leads.
At the moment, it appears that Arizona and New Hampshire are going to be Democratic holds. However, there may be increased investment into the former state from Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel who believes that JD Vance (R-OH) is on his way to beating Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) and plans to shift his money to support conspiracy theorist Blake Masters (R-AZ) against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced recently that he was pulling GOP PAC money out of the Grand Canyon State. Thiel looks to fill that gap. However, Masters has been far behind and with early voting starting in Arizona soon, the money might not be enough. Plus, Kelly has a lot of money too.
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) is comfortably ahead of another conspiracy theorist Republican candidate, Don Balduc. There are no public signs that Republican donors are going to pour money into the Granite State soon, so Balduc may just be on his own. Having one fewer front for Democrats to defend is a relief in an election year that looks like it might come down to a number of close races – perhaps even once again to a Georgia runoff should neither Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) nor Herschel Walker (R-GA) get a majority. The Georgia race remains close, but there are signs that the electorate modeling pollsters are using in the Peach State is underestimating how many women, young people, and people of color will vote this year.
We have seen several cycles now of polling missing due to right wing voters refusing to participate in surveys. The alarm has been raised again in some quarters, but this feels more like pundits embracing a new political conventional wisdom rather than actual analysis. This is a challenge in politics with pundits – they talk as if things never change, until they do, and then they incorporate how wrong they were and continue talk as if things never change, until they do again.
There are two important indicators that suggest that pollster could be getting it wrong this year, but in the other direction from the past three election cycles. First, as noted above, is Georgia where the data on mail ballot requests suggest that the pollsters are significantly missing an increase in voter participation from women, young people, and persons of color as well as Democrats in general. The numbers in Georgia are surpassing the levels at the same point in the 2020 election.
The second indicator that polling may be missing Democratic voter enthusiasm is the results from the Kansas primary in August. Not only did an anti-abortion measure fail by 20 points, but voter turnout was massive for a primary election. Recently analyzed data shows that women under 35 turned out in higher numbers than all men did, suggesting that the November electorate may look very different than in past years.
These are only indicators. We don’t know yet how it will play out. Nor do we know how much of a mess the election will be with the Republicans encouraging election deniers and conspiracy theorist to become poll workers and cause disruptions. This election does not look like any that have come before it, so all we can do is pay attention to the data and see what it suggests. One thing that is not data is talking about how polling missed in the past. Polling always misses, especially in close elections. It’s no big deal if a survey says 51% of the country likes Snickers when in fact it is 48% - that’s close enough to make marketing decisions and have a good idea of what the Snickers-eating world is like. But, in elections there are clear winners and losers even if the margin is only hundreds of people. So small misses can produce incorrect results, which help to undermine public confidence in polling.
To finish today’s post, I want to encourage people to consider doing some phone banking, text banking, letter writing, and check writing in Nevada. Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) has fallen behind her Republican opponent, as has Democratic Gov. Steven Sisolak. Three of the four congressional districts are held by Democrats – and all are going to be close. Additionally, the Republicans have an election denier running for Secretary of State. If the GOP sweeps these races, it will make a Democratic Senate unlikely and a Democratic House probably impossible, and it will be bad news for a free and fair presidential election in 2024.
And really finally: Please tell any Democratic fundraiser that hits you up to start throwing money into the Wisconsin and North Carolina races. Both are winnable, but the party is blowing it. Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI) had a strong lead against Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) until the GOP dumped massive amounts of cash into an attack ad campaign against Barnes which went uncontested by Democrats. As a result, the race is tied – and Johnson is starting to come out on top in the polling. Something similar is going on in North Carolina.