Introduction: Arizona is going to be an important state for Democrats in 2020. It is looking more and more like Biden will win here, and that probably will seal his victory were that to happen. Current polling shows Mark Kelly comfortably (if not far) ahead of Sen. Martha McSally (R), meaning Arizona may have two Democratic Senators representing it for the first time since Sen. Ernest McFarland lost his seat to Barry Goldwater in 1952. There are two competitive House seats this year. Winning both would be a net Democratic pick-up of one seat – and that seat would put an Indian-American emergency room doctor in the House. We can use more scientists in government.
Senate Race: Last year, Cook Political Report listed this race as a Toss-Up, but it has since moved to Lean Dem. The incumbent is Martha McSally, who was appointed to the vacant office after losing to Senator Kyrsten Sinema last year for the other (open) seat. McSally’s Democratic opponent is former astronaut Mark Kelly. He has raised over $45 million and currently has about $21 million on hand (which is $11 million than the incumbent). There have been 22 polls in this race since mid-June, with Kelly leading in 21 of them (the one he was losing was in late June). The simple polling average for these 22 polls is Kelly +8.1.
Competitive House Races: In September 2019, there were three competitive races in Arizona, but since then AZ-02 has moved to Solid Democrat. The other two districts (AZ-01 and AZ-06) remain competitive.
AZ-01 – Leans Dem – Tom O’Halloran (D) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2016 and is facing primary opposition this year – including from his left. The district, which is geographically very large and includes Flagstaff, voted for Trump by 1 percentage point in 2016. He has had the fortune of facing two scandal-ridden GOP opponents in 2016 and 2018. His Republican oppenet is Tiffany Shedd, who finished third in the 2018 GOP primary. O’Halloran has outraised Shedd by four to one and has a cash on hand advantage of over six to one. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +2.
AZ-06 – Toss-Up –David Schweikert (R) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2010 and does not appear to be facing primary opposition thus far. The district, which includes North Phoenix, has been trending more Democratic in recent years, but Trump won in 2016 by 10 points (the same margin Schweikert had against his Democratic opponent in 2018). Dr. Hiral Tipirneni, a former ER physician, is his Democratic opponent. She raised $4.4 million and won 45 percent of the vote in AZ-08, a solid GOP district, last year. This year, Tipirneni has outraised Schweikert by two to one and has a cash on hand advantage of over six to one. The district has a PVI of GOP +9.
Presidential Race: Last September, CPR rated Arizona as one of five Toss-Up states for 2020. Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by about 3.5 percentage points, which represents just over 90,000 votes. Most observers saw Arizona as a Toss-Up after the 2018 mid-terms. Currently, the consensus electoral map has Arizona for Biden. Since March 8th, Biden has been leading the FiveThirtyEight polling average. His lead has ranged from two to five points. Currently, the Grand Canyon State is Biden +3.6. CPR, one of the contributors to the consensus electoral map, continues to rate the state a Toss-Up. Some forecasters use a category between Lean and Toss-Up called Tilt. I would rate this state Tilt Dem.