Introduction: The Rocky Mountain State seemed much more like a trifecta state last year. Now, it seems more like a sure Senate pick-up and Electoral College victory for the Democrats. The only competitive House seat now is the open CO-03, currently held by a retiring Republican, which will be difficult for the Democrats to pick up. Nevertheless, all of these races could end up being closer than it appears right now. And for that reason, Colorado is a state in which you can make an impact.
Senate Race: Cook Political Report currently lists this race as a Toss-Up. Cory Gardner (R) is the incumbent and he is running for reelection. Gardner, who defeated Senator Mark Udall (D) in 2014, is unpopular in Colorado. Former two-term governor and mayor of Denver John Hickenlooper is the Democratic nominee. Gardner is so unpopular and Hickenlooper such a strong candidate, that there have been reports that the GOP is cutting him loose in order to focus on other more winnable races in a year in which Republicans face losing as many as eleven seats (although four to five is more likely). There have only been two polls in this race since May, both in July showing Hickenlooper up by 11 points in one and six in the other. Despite this, Gardner has about $6 million more cash on hand than the former governor. And a minor ethics scandal has taken some of the shine off of Hickenlooper, but this is still his race to lose.
Competitive House Race: Last September, there was one race considered competitive. It was CO-06, which is held by Rep. Jason Crow (D). Since that time, this race has moved to Solid Dem, but another seat has become open and CPR considers it competitive.
CO-03 – Likely GOP – Open seat. Scott Tipton (R) is the incumbent. The district is located on the Western Slope and includes the cities of Grand Junction, Pueblo, Aspen, and Steamboat as well as several conservative rural counties. State Representative Diane Mitsch Bush (D) lost to Tipton in 2018 by eight points (52-44) despite (slightly) outspending him. This time, Mitsch Bush is facing off against Republican businesswoman Lauren Boebert (R). The Democratic nominee has outraised her opponent ten to one and currently has 20 times the cash on hand. But, we should expect the national Republicans to start throwing some money into this race. Clinton lost this district by 12 points in 2016. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +6.
Presidential Race: CPR rates Colorado as Likely Dem for 2020. Clinton won the state in 2016 by less than 5 percentage points. This year looks a lot different, but still a likely Democratic victory. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has it Biden +13.3. That’s a solid lead that will be very difficult for Trump to beat at this point in the campaign. But, Colorado is still purple, and the race could tighten here in the next two months. I wouldn’t expect it to, but it might.