Introduction: Here is another state that most people assumed would be a red state going into 2020. But, it’s actually become a pretty fierce battleground state. The supporters of Stacey Abrams’ (D) 2018 gubernatorial campaign knew this was coming, but most outside observers didn’t believe it until recently. This is an interesting state to volunteer in because not only is the presidential race close and there are some competitive House race, but there are two competitive Senate races this year due to the retirement of Sen. Johnny Isakson in December.
Senate Races: Georgia will have both Senate seats up for election this year. Senator David Perdue (R) is up for reelection in the regular Senate election. Senator Johnny Isakson (R) has retired and the state will hold a special Senate election at the same time, but it will be a jungle primary with a run-off scheduled for January 5, 2021 if no one gets 50% of the vote on November 3rd. Both seats are competitive, but the Democrat has a better shot of winning Perdue’s seat than the special election.
Regular Senate Race: Cook Political Report currently lists this race as a Toss-Up. David Perdue (R) is the incumbent and he is running for reelection. Democrat Jon Ossoff is his opponent and has been running a tight race with the incumbent. Ossoff was a prolific fundraiser when he ran (and lost) in a special House election prior to the 2018 mid-terms, but Perdue has outraised him two to one and has a cash on hand advantage of just over $8 million. In the polling since mid-June, a simple polling average has Perdue up by +1.5.
Special Senate Race: Cook Political Report currently lists this race as a Likely GOP. Johnny Isakson (R) was the elected incumbent and retired at the end of December 2019. Kelly Loeffler (R) was appointed to the seat by Georgia’s governor to serve until the November 3rd special election. The winner of the special election will have to run for a full term in 2022. Even though the general election is on November 3rd, for this race it will actually be the primary. For special elections, Georgia uses the jungle primary (top two regardless of party advance to the run-off). If no candidate gets 50% on November 3rd there will be a run-off by the top two finishers on January 5, 2021. Loeffler has three main challengers: Rep. Doug Collins (R); Rev. Raphael Warnock (D), and; Matthew Lieberman (D). Warnock is the favored candidate among most Democrats. Loeffler has by far raised the most money; outraising next place Warnock by four to one. She has a three to one advantage over Warnock in cash on hand. It is very possible that the run-off will be between Loeffler and Collins, as Collins was running up on the incumbent for a long time until the race got tighter. The race is difficult to poll because of the number of candidates (there are a lot more than four) and the top-two nature of the primary. Most recently Loeffler and Warnock have been coming out on top (Loeffler more than Warnock), but some polls have Collins leading or in second and at least one has Lieberman winning. Should Warnock or Lieberman advance to the run-off, Georgia will be the place to volunteer in December and the first week of January.
Competitive House Races: Georgia has two competitive Congressional districts this year: GA-06 and GA 07. Both districts have moved from Toss-Up in 2019 to Lean Dem today. They are still competitive, however, just trending towards the Democrats.
GA-06 – Lean Dem – Lucy McBath (D) is the incumbent. She was first elected in 2018 when she beat GOP Rep. Karen Handel by just one point. From 1980 to 2018 this was a solid GOP district (Newt Gingrich and Johnny Isakson both held this seat before Handel). Handel is again the Republican nominee. McBath has outraised Handel almost three to one and has a cash on hand advantage of just over three to one. The district includes the northern suburbs of Atlanta. Trump beat Clinton by 1.5 points, representing a margin of 5,000 votes. In 2012, Romney beat Obama by 24 points. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +8.
GA-07 – Lean Dem – GOP Rep. Rob Woodall is the incumbent and he is retiring. Democrat nominee Carolyn Bourdeaux lost in 2018 by 433 votes. Bourdeaux is again the nominee. Richard McCormick is the Republican nominee. Bourdeaux has outraised McCormick two to one, but has a seven to one cash on hand advantage. The district includes the northeast suburbs of Atlanta. Trump beat Clinton by 6.2 points. In 2012, Romney beat Obama by just under 18 points. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +9.
Presidential Race: CPR rates Georgia as Toss-Up for 2020. Trump won the state in 2016 by 6 percentage points. Since late May, the race has flipped back and forth between Biden and Trump. The current FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump +0.9.