Here’s the fourth in a series of trifecta briefs: Iowa. If you are wondering, what should I do with this information? I will have a post – that I am tentatively calling an “instruction manual” – that will help answer that question soon. In the meantime, consider these briefs as state-level snapshots of the state of the race going into the fall push.
Introduction: Iowa was supposed to be a solid Republican state in 2020. Instead it has become probably the most toss-up of the Toss-Up states. The Senate, three of the four CDs, and the presidential races are neck and neck here, with leaders switching every now and then. Often, even when we see close races, one candidate consistently leads. Not so much with Iowa this year. If you are looking for a state where every race is a nail-biter, Iowa is it.
Senate Race: In September 2019, Cook Political Report rated this race as a Likely GOP, but it has become a Toss-Up. Joni Ernst (R) is the incumbent and she is running for reelection. She was first elected in 2014 with 51% of the vote. Ernst’s Democratic opponent is urban planner Theresa Greenfield. The simple polling average since mid-June has Greenfield +2.1.
Competitive House Races: Last September, it appeared that all four of Iowa’s Congressional districts would be considered competitive for 2020. But, with the defeat of Rep. Steve King (R) IA-04 is now considered solid GOP. But, the other three CDs are all Toss-Ups now.
IA-01 – Toss-Up – Abby Finkenauer (D) is the incumbent. She was first elected in 2018 when she beat GOP Rep. Rod Blum with 51% of the vote. Her GOP opponent is state Rep. Ashley Hinson, who has about a million dollars less cash on hand than the incumbent. The district includes Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Dubuque. Trump beat Clinton by 4 points in this district in 2016. Obama beat Romney by over 13 points in 2012. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of Dem +1.
IA-02 – Toss-Up – Open seat. David Loebsack (D) is the incumbent and he is retiring after seven terms in office. The Democratic nominee for the seat is Rita Hart, who was the most recent Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor. Hart has raised a million dollars more than her opponent, state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R), and has three times as much cash on hand. The district includes Davenport and Iowa City. This district is very similar – politically – to IA-01. Trump beat Clinton by 4 points. In 2012, Obama beat Romney by 13 points. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of Dem +1.
IA-03 – Toss-Up – Cindy Axne (D) is the incumbent. She was first elected in 2018 with just over 49% of the vote. She defeated the incumbent, David Young (R), by 2 points. This year is a rematch of that race. Axne has raised $2 million more than Young and currently has about twice as much cash on hand. The district includes Des Moines and Council Bluffs. Trump beat Clinton by 3 points. In 2012, Obama beat Romney by under 5 points. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +1.
Presidential Race: Last year, CPR rated Iowa as Lean GOP, but it is now considered by just about every observer to be a Toss-Up. Trump won the state in 2016 by 9 percentage points, but the polling over the last few months has been tight. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average currently has Trump +1.4 points.