Introduction: The Pine Tree State (yup, that’s Maine’s nickname) seemed much more competitive just a few months ago. Now, it seems more likely to be an electoral sweep for the Democrats. But, that’s by no means certain. The Senate race is trending towards the Democrat, but it’s still close enough and one can never count out Susan Collins’ ability to pull it out. The second CD could be a GOP pick-up in any year, and looked like it might be a few months ago. Now, it seems like Jared Golden is on track for reelection against a weak opponent. The four electoral votes here are important. If the presidential race tightens to five points or less then it will likely be even closer in battleground states. This means that either candidate could win the Electoral College regardless of the popular vote. Every EV will matter. Biden cannot afford to lose states like Maine (and if he loses this state it is probably an indicator that other “safe” states are in jeopardy). If you are in the Northeast this fall there are two relatively close states to travel to that matter: Maine and Pennsylvania.
Senate Race: Cook Political Report currently lists this race as a Toss-Up. Sen. Susan Collins (R) is the incumbent and she is running for reelection. Collins, who has gotten away with giving lip service to being a moderate while voting with Trump and Bush on right-wing causes and opposing Obama as obstinately as McConnell did. It appears that this year the voters in Maine are finally seeing right through her. The Democratic candidate is state Speaker Sara Gideon. Gideon has led in every poll since July 1 save one. The simple polling average on this race is Gideon +3.8. The one poll Collins lead was on July 3rd by Moore Information (B/C) and had the incumbent up by eight points. If we discount that poll as an outlier, Gideon is up +5.1 points. Gideon has raised $23.9 million compared to Collins’ $16.7 million, however both candidates have just over $5 million on hand right now.
Competitive House Race: Maine has two Congressional Districts. It also splits its electoral votes so that the candidate that wins each CD gets one EV. The remaining two EVs go to the statewide winner. Maine is one of two states that apportion EVs this way (Nebraska is the other). ME-01 is solidly Democratic, taking up the southern coastal area and including Portland. ME-02 is more of purple district, sometimes looking quite Republican, but still voting for Democrats from time to time. At this point, ME-02 is still competitive, but looking like a Democratic hold even though CPR rates it a Toss-Up.
ME-02 – Toss-Up – Rep. Jared Golden (D) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2018 with 50.6% of the vote. The district takes up most of the land area of the state, much of which is rural. State Representative Dale Crafts, who was backed by unpopular former Governor Paul LePage, is the GOP nominee. The Democratic nominee has outraised his opponent almost ten to one and currently has $2.1 million on hand compared to the Republican’s $34,000. Clinton lost this district by 10 points in 2016. Obama won it in 2008 and 2012. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of GOP +2.
Presidential Race: CPR rates Maine as Likely Dem for 2020. Clinton won the state in 2016 by three percentage points. This year looks like a stronger Democratic victory may be at hand. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has it Biden +10.2.