Introduction: No one was expecting to see Texas on a list of battleground states last year when the campaigns was starting up. Some of us (yes, I am a guilty party) thought that demographic change should have made Texas a toss-up state in 2016, but it wasn’t. However, the results from 2016 did show what many of us have been saying for years. Texas is demographically trending in ways that will make it a Democratic state within a generation. We may have missed it by a generation, but it is coming soon. Texas is a toss-up state this year. Biden may win it, or narrowly lose it, but he should do better than Clinton’s nine point loss (and much better than Obama’s 16 point loss in 2012). The Senate seat could be in play, but so far it doesn’t look like it is going to be. But, the really interesting thing is out in the Congressional Districts. A dozen are competitive this year. After the first poll or two that showed Biden even or close in the Lone Star State, I noted it with interest, but did not think anyone should waste resources there. My thinking was: if Biden wins Texas he’s probably winning everywhere, and the investment was not worth it (because he can win several ways without Texas). But, now my feeling is that there is a whole lot of work to do in Texas and the payoff could be huge and game-changing. In fact, I am working on an analysis of the electoral and demographic change happening in Texas, which I hope to preview before the election and then follow-up once we have the 2020 final results for the state.
Senate Race: Cook Political Report rates this race as Likely GOP. Sen. John Cornyn (R) is the incumbent. His opponent is former Air Force pilot and Purple Heart recipient M.J. Hegar. Cornyn, who was first elected in 2002, has been consistently leading Hegar in the polls. However, he has been polling in the mid to low 40s, which is not a good sign for an incumbent engaged in a two-person race in August of election year. Hegar is obviously polling even lower, but she is keeping it close – usually in the low 40s herself. Cornyn’s favorability ratings have not been good for an incumbent either. Hegar, who should have room to increase her name recognition and move up, is running out of time. Cornyn may be reelected even though he seems to be unpopular.
Competitive House Races: There are an astounding 12 competitive House seats in the Lone Star State this year. There are 39 states plus the District of Columbia that have fewer than 12 seats in Congress. New Jersey also has 12 seats, meaning only ten states have more Congressional districts than the number competitive in Texas this year. There is one really interesting thing about these 12 districts: they have all been trending Democratic since 2012. For nearly every one of these districts, both Clinton and Obama lost it, but Clinton’s margin was generally 10 points or less and Obama’s margin was typically 20 points or more. And many Republican candidates in 2018 either lost or win by close margins. There does appear to be a realignment underway in the Lone Star State. If it translates into a solid state for Democrats at the presidential level, Republicans – constituted as they are right now – will have an almost impossible time ever winning another national election.
TX-02 – Likely GOP – Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2018 by a seven point margin (53-46). His Democratic opponent is attorney Sima Ladjevardian. Crenshaw has over $4 million on hand, while Ladjevardian has just $500,000. The district is comprised mostly of the northern Houston suburbs, but does include a part of the city. Clinton lost this district by 10 points in 2016 and Obama lost to Romney in 2012 by 28 points. The district has a Partisan Voter Index (PVI) of R+11.
TX-03 – Lean GOP – Rep. Van Taylor (R) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2018 with 54% of the vote. His Democratic opponent is attorney Helane “Lulu” Seikaly. While Seikaly was outraised by Taylor four-to-one, she currently has less than $40,000 on hand. Taylor has over a million dollars on hand. The district is located in the suburbs north of Dallas. Clinton lost by 14 points in 2016, while Obama lost by 30 points four years earlier. The PVI for this district is R+13.
TX-06 – Likely GOP – Rep. Ron White (R) is the incumbent. He won the seat in 2018 by eight points. His Democratic opponent is attorney Stephen Daniel. In what may be one of the weakest fundraising races of the year, White has just $100,000 while Daniel has even less ($80,000). The district is composed of Dallas suburbs such as Arlington and Waxahachie. Clinton lost the district in 2016 by 12 points and Obama lost to Romney in 2012 by almost 18 points. Looking at the results from 2012, 2016, and 2018, it appears that the GOP hold on this district is slipping over time. The PVI is R+9.
TX-07 – Lean Dem – Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D) is the incumbent. She was first elected in 2018 with just over 52% of the vote. This is the Houston seat once held by George H.W. Bush. Her Republican opponent is Wesley Hunt. Hunt raised just over $3 million (compared to $4 million for the incumbent), but he spent a lot more during the primary. Consequently, Fletcher has over three times as much cash on hand than does Hunt. The district is located in the northwest suburbs of Houston. Clinton won this district in 2016 by 1.5 points. Obama lost it by 21 points in 2012. The PVI for this district is R+7.
TX-10 – Lean GOP – Rep. Michael McCaul (R) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2004, but just missed being upset in 2018 by Democrat Mike Siegel (51-49). Siegel is also this year’s Democratic nominee, even though he was not the DCCC’s choice in the primary (who finished third). McCaul has outperformed Siegel in fundraising, having raised three times as much as the Democrat. Siegel has just over $100,000 on hand right now, while the incumbent has over a million. The district is located in the stretch of suburbs between Austin and Houston. Clinton lost this district by nine points in 2016 and Obama lost it by 21 points in 2012. The PVI is R+9.
TX-21 – Toss-Up – Rep. Chip Roy (R) is the incumbent. Roy, former chief of staff for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), was first elected in 2018 with barely over 50% of the vote (it was a two point margin). His Democratic opponent is former state Senator and Democratic nominee for governor Wendy Davis. Davis has outraised Roy almost two-to-one and has about a $1.2 million advantage with cash on hand. The district is located in south-central Texas suburbs between Austin and San Antonio. Clinton lost the district by just under 10 points in 2016. Obama lost by 22 points in 2012. The PVI is R+10.
TX-22 – Toss-Up – This is an open seat. GOP Rep. Pete Olson is retiring after 12 years. In 2018, Olson beat Democratic nominee former foreign service officer Sri Kulkarni 51-47. Kulkarni is again the Democratic nominee this year. Her opponent is Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls (R). Despite being the elected sheriff in the largest county in the district, Nehls has lagged far behing Kulkarni in fundraising. The Democrat outraised the Republican five-to-one and has over $1.2 million on hand compared to just $29,000 for Nehls. The district includes the southwest subrubs of Houston. Clinton lost the district in 2016 by eight points, while Obama lost by 26 points in 2012.
TX-23 – Lean Dem – Open seat. Rep. Will Hurd (R) is retiring after nearly losing in 2018 to former Air Force intelligence officer Gina Ortiz Jones by 926 votes. Jones is again the Democratic nominee. Her opponent is retired Navy cryptologist Tony Gonzales (R). Jones has outraised Gonzales four-to-one and has a cash on hand advantage of ten-to-one. The district is very large geographically, spanning the southern border along the Rio Grande from El Paso to Laredo County. It’s the only Congressional district on the Mexican border currently represented by a Republican. Clinton won the district in 2016 by three and a half points. Obama lost the district in 2012 by the same margin. The PVI is R+1.
TX-24 – Toss-Up –This is an open seat. GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant is retiring, which CPR calls “a sign of the times.” This Irving-based district was once solid Republican, but Trump only received 51% of the vote in 2016. Carrollton-Farmers Branch school board member Candace Valenzuela is the Democratic nominee. She will be facing former Irving Mayor/Trump HUD official Beth Van Duyne (R). The fundraising has been about equal, but Van Duyne has more than four times the cash on hand as does Valenzuela. Clinton lost the district by six points in 2016, while Obama lost it by 22 points in 2012. The PVI is R+9.
TX-25 – Likely GOP – Rep. Roger Williams (R) is the incumbent. The seat, which Williams won in 2012, is heavily gerrymandered. Even so, his Democratic opponent in 2018 held him to under 54% of the vote. That opponent, attorney Julie Oliver, is the Democratic nominee this year too. Williams has $1.2 million on hand, while Oliver has less than $90,000. The district is located in central Texas and includes the suburbs of Fort Worth and Austin (including part of the city). Clinton lost this district in 2016 by 15 points. Obama lost in 2012 by 22 points. The PVI is R+11.
TX-31 – Likely GOP – Rep. John Carter (R) is the incumbent, running for his tenth term this year. His 2018 opponent, MJ Hegar (now Democratic nominee for US Senate), nearly upset him (51-49). This year’s Democratic nominee is computer engineer Donna Imam, who has just $42,000 on hand compared to the $900,000 the incumbent has available. The district is just north of Austin in central Texas. Clinton lost the district in 2016 by 12 points while Obama lost it by 21 points four years earlier. The PVI is R+10.
TX-32 – Likely Dem – Rep. Colin Allred (D) is the incumbent. Allred defeated Rep. Pete Sessions (R) in 2018 by six points. His Republican opponent this year is businesswoman Genevieve Collins. Allred has outraised Collins by a modest amount, but has a three-to-one cash on hand advantage. The district is in the northern suburbs of Dallas. Clinton won the district in 2016 by just under two points. Obama lost in 2012 by 16 points. The PVI is R+5.
Presidential Race: CPR rates Texas as Toss-Up for 2020. Trump won the state in 2016 by nine percentage points. The race narrowed significantly in June and since then the race has been essentially even, flipping back and forth between Biden and Trump over the past two months. The current FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump +1.8.