Introduction: Late last September I outlined early briefs for five potential trifecta states for the 2020 election. Trifecta states are the ones in which you as a volunteer can make a bigger impact because there are multiple important and competitive races there. In addition to North Carolina, those states were Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, and Colorado. Those states remain trifecta states, but there will be some more including Texas, Maine, and possibly Montana, Minnesota (not sure about CD races there just yet, but the Senate race is tightening), New Hampshire, and South Carolina (now that indications are that the Senate seat there is definitely competitive; although the presidential race is not yet). I will also take a look at four states that are not necessarily true trifecta states this year, but are very important nonetheless: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. We’ll start with the one state this year that has competitive races in four categories, Governor, House, Senate, and President: North Carolina.
Governor Race: Lean Dem – Roy Cooper won the governor’s race in 2016 with 49% of the vote (the same vote share that Trump got in winning the state that year). Since September 2019, Cooper and Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) won their respective primaries in March both by over 80% of the vote. Also since then, the race has broken in Cooper’s favor. A simple polling average for the twelve polls for the race issued since June 19th shows Cooper with a lead of +10.75 points. However, there were two polls showing Cooper up by over 20 points and another showing the race even. When eliminating those polls are potential outliers, the simple polling average for the race is Cooper +9.8. CPR now rates the race as Lean Democrat, but the polling this summer makes it look closer to a safe seat for Cooper. I would not bet on that as the other races in NC are also competitive and this race could tighten as we get closer to November.
Senate Race: On September 30, 2019, I released the early version of the North Carolina brief. At that time, Cook Political Report had this race as Likely GOP. Thom Tillis (R), the incumbent, was running for reelection with a primary challenge from the right. This forced Tillis to embrace the president stronger than he might otherwise do. Tillis won the April primary. His Democratic opponent is Cal Cunningham. The race initially polled close, with Tillis having a two point advantage over Cunningham. There have been 22 polls since June 25th, all of which except two (which are tied) have Cunningham leading. A simple average of the margins in these polls has Cunningham up by 6.7 points. In July, there were a number of polls showing Cunningham up by double digits. The August polls, which have been by mediocre pollsters, show the race tightening but with the Democrat still leading.
Competitive House Races: There are five competitive races for House in North Carolina this year. According to CPR there are three open seats this year and all of them are competitive (plus two that are not open, but competitive). This is a change from the early September brief that agreed with the current analysis that NC-02 and NC-09 would be competitive, but NC-13 would be also (it is now Solid GOP). Today’s ratings have NC-02, NC-06, NC-08, NC-09, and NC-11 are the competitive seats. Let’s take a look at them.
NC-02 — Likely Dem — This seat was rated Lean GOP last year, but is now Likely Democrat. George Holding (R) is the incumbent. He was first elected in 2012 with 51% of the vote. The Democratic nominee for this district is former state Assembly member Deborah Ross. The court-ordered re-drawing of the district last December created a new NC-02 that eliminated the GOP outer suburbs and now includes all of the city of Raleigh. In 2016, Trump won the old district by 12 points. But, the new one would have been won by Clinton by 24 points. GOP Rep. George Holding announced he was retiring shortly after the court order. CPR expects Ross to beat Holding.
NC-06 – Likely Dem – This seat wasn’t on CPR’s radar last year, but now it’s Likely Dem. That’s because in December a court ordered this and some other district re-drawn. The new district contains the “Piedmont Triad” of Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point which was previous divided into separate districts. The old NC-06 (which was mostly rural and exurban) voted for Trump by 15 points, but the new one voted for Hillary Clinton by 21 points. For this reason CPR claims the new district is “unwinnable” for Republicans. Apparently GOP Rep. Mark Walker agreed, since he quickly announced his retirement after the court order. Democrats have nominated financial planner Kathy Manning who will face former state supreme court justice Republican Lee Haywood in the general election.
NC-08 – Lean GOP – This is also a district impacted by the December court order. It did not make it a Democratic district, but it did make it competitive. Trump won the old district by 15 points; he would have won the new one by just nine. It is located in the southwest part of the state and includes Fayetteville and Concord. The Democratic nominee is Pat Timmons-Goodson, who was the first African-American woman to serve on the North Carolina Supreme Court. Her GOP opponent is the current incumbent Rep. Richard Hudson, who did not retire upon the re-drawing of his district. CPR thinks that Timmons-Goodson will do well in Cumberland County (where Fayetteville is located), which represents two-thirds of the district, but will struggle in the conservative western counties.
NC-09 — Likely GOP —This district is located in the southern/central part of the state and includes the Charlotte suburbs and the city of Lumberton. This is the district where the results were thrown out in 2018 due to GOP voter fraud with absentee ballots. The breadth of the fraud was shocking and extremely rare in American politics. The incumbent is former GOP state senator Dan Bishop, who won the 2019 do-over election. His Democratic opponent is Cynthia Wallace, who is lagging behind in fundraising. CPR claims that if the 2019 do-over election was conducted with the current district borders (which were impacted by the court-ordered re-drawing in December), that election would have been tied.
NC-11 – Likely GOP – This seat is currently vacant, which many people think is because the former office holder, Mark Meadows (R), resigned to accept the Chief of Staff position in the Trump Administration. Although what he actually did was wait until 30 hours before the filing deadline to announce he was retiring. In fact, he resigned his seat later (March 30) after trying to hold both positions simultaneously. This did not endear him to NC Republicans. The GOP nominee is 24 year old Madison Cawthorn, a motivational speaker who defeated Meadows’ former deputy chief of staff for the nomination. The Democratic nominee is retired U.S. Air Force colonel and third Chief Prosecutor of the Guantanamo military commission Moe Davis. The district is located in the western part of the state and includes Ashville and the Smokey Mountains.
Presidential Race: CPR rated NC as Lean GOP in 2019. Trump won the state in 2016 by just over 3.5%. However, since the beginning of June Biden has had a small, but clear lead in the FiveThirtyEight polling average. As of today, it’s Biden +1.8 points. The consensus electoral map rates the state a Toss-Up.