Update on Stefanik and the Special in Florida's 6th CD on Tuesday
March 28, 2025
Tony Fabrizio has the Democrat leading by three points in the Florida 6th Congressional District. This gives us more insight into why the Trump Administration is pulling Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-NY) nomination to be UN Ambassador. It’s not just about saving Trump’s legislative agenda, but about saving the Republican majority altogether. Here’s why.
If Democrat Josh Weil beats Republican Randy Fine in next Tuesday’s special election in the 6th, it will represent about a 25-point swing. In fact, even if it is close it will represent that kind of swing. Stefanik represents a district in upstate New York that Trump won by 20 points last November. A 25-point swing there means she loses her seat too. Complicating the math for Republicans has been the threat of a independent candidacy by a potential nominee if he is not picked by the GOP as their candidate (the process would be a local party committee choice, not a primary).
So, it appears that Republicans are not just worried about losing Florida 6th but about losing the 6th and Stefanik’s seat. Right now there are four vacancies in the House: the two Florida seats and two seats in Democratic districts in Texas and Arizona. Stefanik’s seat is not vacant. Even though she has given up her leadership position and her staff has all left because she told them she was resigning, she has not resigned. The margin in the House currently is 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats. (With no vacancies, 218 constitutes a majority.) If the Republicans win their specials and the Democrats theirs, the margin would be 220-215.
However, if Fine loses on Tuesday and if Stefanik were to resign and Democrats win that seat, the margin would be 218-217 for Republicans. In this scenario, there would be five special elections and Democrats win four of them - two of which are flips. Republicans would still have the majority, but it would only take one dissenter in their caucus to prevent them from doing anything. And we have seen plenty of House members eager to have that kind of power - particularly in the Republican caucus. The other problem, of course, is that one additional Republican vacancy could flip the House to the Democrats.
By the way, if you do not recognize Fabrizio’s name he is Trump’s pollster. I have mentioned him before a few times. He’s not always right, but he’s no fool either.
If you want to help flip Florida’s 6th for Josh Weil, you can sign up for a phone bank here. I wouldn’t worry about donating money to him, as he has outraised his opponent by at least ten times. But if you still want to donate, you can do so here.
Don’t forget there is a very important state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin also on Tuesday. If you happen to be in Wisconsin - or can get there easily - the Working Families Party is running canvasses this weekend. Other ways to help can be found here, here, and here. If you want to donate to Susan Crawford, the progressive candidate for the Supreme Court, you can do so here.