Where Are the Trifecta States for Traveling Volunteers This Year?
August 21, 2024
This was going to be just one post when I began drafting it on Sunday, but it will now be expanded to at least two or perhaps three. There is a lot to say about where are good places for traveling volunteers this year. The trifecta concept I have used in previous cycles does not neatly work this year. So, today I will look at two states that potentially fit that characterization and then in future posts looks at some others that folks might want to travel to because of a number of other factors that are important this year - like winning Congress.
My old pal Steve and I were having a few pints in San Francisco this weekend and he asked me what I thought the trifecta states were for this year now that Harris is the Democratic nominee. Trifecta states are states that offer volunteers the biggest impact. We usually consider a trifecta state to be one that has at least three of four competitive races going on at a time: House; Senate; Governor; President. I had to give some serious thought to this because I was not sure there are any this year.
The Democratic Senate candidates have been increasing leads in the battleground states in the past several weeks. They were already outpacing Biden before the debate (and certainly before his withdrawal). The Democratic candidates who need help are not in battleground states (Montana and Ohio). But - as you can see below - the experts think the races are a bit more competitive than I do. So maybe we have four or five candidates for trifecta states this year. Except for one thing: trifecta means three and there are few if any competitive House races in these states this year. In fact, the important races for control of the House this year are in states where one party has a significant advantage in the presidential race, such as California and New York.
Given all of this, my initial response to Steve was that perhaps Michigan is this year’s only truly trifecta state. The Senate race there is not really close, but it will not surprise me if it tightens. And there are three competitive House seats there. After giving it some more thought, I am adding Arizona. This makes three election cycles in a row that Arizona is a trifecta state.
Despite this very short list – and my experience working in Arizona in previous years – I will be doing voter protection work in Pennsylvania this year. While it is a crucial state for Harris to win, it’s not really the kind of trifecta state I usually volunteer in. There is a Senate race this year, but I think Sen. Bob Casey (D) will easily win despite the ratings of the experts. There are, however, at least four House districts in either the Toss-Up or Leans categories there. One is a Democratic seat near Pittsburg and two are north of Philadelphia. I ultimately chose to work in Pennsylvania over Michigan because it is closer to my daughter. (Alas, Arizona was not in cards this year.) We all have personal reasons in addition to professional ones for where we choose to work. And with the odd lack of trifectas this year, I can pick a state for personal reasons that will still be important to the outcome of the presidential election.
What are the experts saying?
Let’s do a quick refresher on what the race ratings categories mean:
Toss-Up: The race is too close to call and either party has a real chance to win.
Leans: The race is competitive, but one party has an advantage.
Likely: The race is not competitive yet, but could become so.
Solid/Safe: The race is not competitive and there is no reason to believe it will become so.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has seven Toss-Up presidential states as of this morning: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and the just-added North Carolina. There are five Senate races in these states, all of which Sabato rates as Lean Democrat. Cook agrees, except for Michigan which it has as a Toss-Up. Inside Elections has a “Tilt” category, which occupies the space between Toss-Up and Lean. It places Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada in the Tilt Democrat category. Wisconsin is Leans Democrat.
These folks are pros and know what they are doing, but I don’t think there is any reason to think these Senate races are going to remain very competitive, except for perhaps Michigan (see below) much longer. I do not want to get overconfident about these Senate races nor ignore the fact that with such a close margin in the House that any district is not important. There are a lot of places around the country that could use your help - and your help is important! So I am going to divide the states up for both analytical and prioritization purposes.
What does trifecta mean this year?
As I have explained, in previous years we used the term trifecta for states in which there were at least three important races in which you, as a traveling volunteer, could maximize your impact. These races were competitive and had the chance of changing the balance of power in DC (or the state capital in mid-terms when we substituted governor for president). One reason for this is that as a traveling volunteer you are likely going to be situated in one place, and that makes it hard to help out in more than one House district (for example). But it’s not impossible, even if you are physically present - and this year is no different than in the past few where you can volunteer remotely in a number of states at the same time. So for this year, I think there are only two truly trifecta states at this point in time: Michigan and Arizona. But there are another five potentially trifecta states, and several non-trifecta-but-really-important states. We’ll start today with the truly trifecta.
Michigan
The presidential race is close, but Harris is leading in all polling averages. 538 has Harris +3.3, the New York Times has Harris +2, Silver Bulletin has Harris +3, The Economist has Harris +2.2.
The Michigan Senate race is not exactly close, but I expect it could narrow. It is an open seat and it is considered a Toss-Up by Cook Political Report, although not by some others. Open seats have a way of being unpredictable in states where either party can win a statewide election. Slotkin appears to have a solid lead in the polling - and even a big lead in a couple of polls - but it is an open seat. Michigan is known to elect statewide officials of both parties, and the Republican candidate, former Rep. Mike Rogers, is Trump’s pick which could rally some of his base to Rogers. Rogers does have some important downsides. He has repeatedly voted against abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act, he was living and registered to vote in Florida during the 2022 election, and he is raising less money than Slotkin.
There are two important Democratic House seats that are open and in the Toss-Up category. There is another that Leans Republican.
MI-07 Toss-Up - This seat is being vacated by Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) as she runs for Senate. Cook's analysis: “Slotkin leaves behind her own highly competitive district. Two former state senators will face off in the general election for mid-Michigan’s 7th District: Republican Tom Barrett, who lost to Slotkin by five points in 2022, and Democrat Curtis Hertel. This is one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities in the country.”
MI-08 Toss-Up - This seat is currently held by Rep. Dan Kildee (D), who is retiring. Cook's analysis: “Democratic voters nominated state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, who already represents a third of this congressional district. Meanwhile, Republican voters nominated former broadcast journalist Paul Junge, who unsuccessfully challenged Kildee in 2022 and Slotkin in 2020.”
MI-10 Leans Republican - This seat is currently held by freshman Rep. John James (R). Cook's analysis: “Former Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga and GOP Rep. John James are headed for a rematch in the 10th District, which encompasses the purple counties of the Detroit suburbs.”
Arizona
While Harris is leading in the polls in Michigan, she is behind Trump in Arizona. Currently, 538 has it Trump +0.8. The New York Times has it even, which is significantly up from Trump +7 at the time Biden withdrew. The Economist has it Trump +1.0. Silver Bulletin has Harris leading by 0.9 points. This state appears to be the most tossy of the Toss-Ups right now, but the momentum is with Harris.
Cook rates this seat currently as Lean Democrat. This Senate race is polling closer than I expect it to be in the end. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) has been consistently polling ahead of former governor candidate Kari Lake (R) anywhere from five to ten points, although it’s an average more in the range of six to seven points. Lake is not pivoting from her MAGA style for a more general election audience, something that has Republicans worried. Gallego, a combat veteran who represents a large part of vote-rich Maricopa County and Phoenix, is as strong a candidate as the Democrats have put in recent years. Should Harris win the state, there does not seem to be anyway that Lake could beat Gallego. As it stands now - and did when Biden was running - Gallego looks good to win despite the outcome in the presidential race.
There are two Toss-Up House races and no other competitive ones this year.
AZ-01 Toss-Up - This seat is currently held by Rep. David Schweikert (R). Cook's analysis: “In Arizona’s 1st District — one of the most competitive House districts in the country — state Rep. Amish Shah led the field with 24% of the primary vote, while former state Democratic Party Chairman Andrei Cherny was in second with 21.4% and former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods was in a close third with 20.8%.” Shah has a strong electoral base in the district. This is a pick-up opportunity for Democrats.
AZ-06 Toss-Up - This seat is currently held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R). Cook does not have an analysis of the seat other than to note that Ciscomani is a relative moderate in the Arizona Republican Party.
Arizona is one of eight states in which an abortion rights measure is on the ballot. Proposition 139 would permit abortions up to the point of fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy, which changes Arizona law to what it was before the Dobbs decision. Anti-choice activists filed a court petition to remove the measure from the ballot based on the most technical of reasons. The state Supreme Court denied their petition this week; the measure will be on the ballot. This ballot measure has the potential to increase Democratic turnout in November.