Who is going to be the Democratic VP nominee?

August 1, 2024

It’s Veepstakes time for the Democrats! You’ve undoubtedly heard who is in the mix. As of this morning, it appears that the candidates still in the running are Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (D-MI).¹ Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) have withdrawn.

Despite a shortlist of five candidates, there are reasons to believe the decision has been made - at least preliminarily. The pick appears to be Shapiro. Here’s why.

The Harris campaign has reportedly asked Wall Street donors to contribute to the campaign by the end of this week. There is an SEC rule that prohibits such donors from contributing to governors. While this could be just a precaution, it suggests that Harris is going to pick a governor. That eliminates Kelly and Buttigieg.

The Vice President’s campaign has released some details of a battleground state tour that will begin next Tuesday with an announcement of her running mate. That kick-off event will occur in Philadelphia. That suggests the governor she is going to pick will be Shapiro. If it were Walz, we would expect an event in St Paul, Minneapolis, or even neighboring Wisconsin somewhere. If it were Kelly or Buttigieg, I would guess it would be in their home states (AZ and MI) since they are battleground states. Beshear, however, governs an otherwise safe Republican state. It might make sense for him to be introduced in Pennsylvania, but I would think Pittsburg would be a more appropriate venue.

Those are the most important reasons to think Shapiro will be the nominee, but you might wonder if he is the best choice of the five. Personally, I don’t think there is a clear “best” choice, but an argument for Shapiro is reasonable. First of all, Buttigieg makes the least sense. He was the mayor of a small city in a Republican state. His ties to Michigan are so weak I bet you didn’t know he lived there now. His big advantages are his donor network and his ability to make the case for Harris and the Democratic ticket. However, he is the one candidate of the five who might easily be considered just another beltway insider.

Buttigieg’s ability to make the case should not be downplayed - it is an essential role for the running mate, and we are watching Sen. JD Vance (D-OH) completely blow it for Trump. However, all five reported finalists are good at making the case - although I will not vouch for Kelly because I have yet to see it, but others claim he can do it. Walz is particularly good at making the case, and instead of apologizing or explaining Democratic values he aggressively defends them. That’s certainly refreshing.

Beshear would appear to be a perfect pick. He is excellent at making the case and attacking the Republican ticket. He beat an incumbent Republican governor in a state that keeps reelecting Sen. Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul to the US Senate, and then he won reelection. He is well-liked by most (he’s reputed to be the most popular governor in the country) and by organized labor (which is a problem for both Kelly and Shapiro). And just today, UAW President Sean Fain endorsed Beshear for Vice President.

I am not really sure how Kelly helps the Democratic ticket. For starters, I am not convinced that a member of Congress is a good pick right now. Kelly has no executive experience, and that is something that has plagued sitting Senators seeking the presidency since 1960 (Obama being the notable exception). Every person elected president since 1964, aside from Obama, who served in the Senate was an incumbent or former Vice President. The rest were Governors. But of course Kelly is not running for president, so perhaps that doesn’t matter. Harris was a Senator in 2020 when Biden put her on the ticket. I can’t think of many people actually getting excited about the prospect of Kelly on the ticket. All the rest have passionate supporters. I am not sure he has the ability to make the case like the others do. That leaves him as a border state Democrat, which presumably means he can push back effectively on Republican attacks on immigration. Harris can do a pretty good job of that herself, and a Republican mayor of a border city in Arizona just endorsed her. Even though I think Buttigieg has no chance, the only pick of the five that would surprise me would be Kelly.

Walz is an interesting case. While not exactly a true battleground state, Minnesota flirts with being one and it is battleground-adjacent. He is very good communicator of Democratic (and democratic) values, and would be excellent for Harris on the stump. I am not sure why he popped up as a serious contender so late in the process, but make no mistake: he is a serious contender. He has Kelly’s gun control positions, but has the added bonus of being a former NRA member - which helps him makes the case to independents who worry about both gun proliferation and gun regulation. In the end, I really think that what might be his biggest challenge is that he looks older than his 60 years and the party seems to be wanting a change in vibes as well as substance.

Shapiro has several really important things going for him. He can absolutely make the case. He not only is younger that Harris, he seems younger (unlike Walz and Kelly who, while being only a year older than Harris, seem even older). Pennsylvania is an absolute must-win state for Harris and Shapiro is very popular there (Despite all his attributes, there is zero chance Beshear will help Harris win Kentucky). He does have some challenges from some on policy fronts. Teacher unions have been critical of him for supporting school vouchers (although I would assume that means they would love to see him as VP than as governor). He has been getting some flack online about support for Israel. However, his support for Israel doesn’t seem much different than any of the rest of them so one wonders if this isn’t just an antisemitic attack on him.

Harris is going to announce her nominee at the Philadelphia event on Tuesday, although it is possible she will release the name earlier. Delegates to the Democratic National Committee are starting to vote virtually for Harris. After that they will vote for Vice President, and it appears that selection needs to be in place on Tuesday for those plans.

While it appears to me that Shapiro is the likely nominee, I wouldn’t bet on it. Beshear and Walz could easily get the nod. Harris could try to double-down on history-making and youth by going with Buttigieg. Or she could fall into that old Democratic habit of doing something painfully boring and seemingly safe by picking Kelly. We may know for sure by the time you finish reading this.

1. Buttigieg was mayor of South Bend, Indiana, but has since moved to Michigan.