Why Should You Care about Polling?

A Good Place to Start Reading

For me, the answer to this question is easy. I am a bit of a data junkie when it comes to elections (and other things), but also because I typically volunteer for get-out-the-vote (GOTV) and voter protection efforts in each election cycle. Some cycles I am more involved than others. For instance, in 2018 I went to Phoenix to help coordinate GOTV efforts for the last weekend of the election. But, in 2016 I was unable to travel due to work obligations and engaged in what efforts I could remotely from home. This year, I had planned to spend the entire fall in battleground states volunteering on voter protection efforts and – in the final week or two – GOTV efforts. Thanks to the pandemic, I am not sure what I can actually accomplish this year – it’s likely to be remote efforts from home, but I am not (yet) closing the door on traveling for at least the final weekend GOTV. There may also be some run-offs in December (Mississippi [unlikely this year], Georgia special [almost certain], and Louisiana [which holds a jungle primary on Election Day with run-offs in December]).

But, what does any of that have to do with polling? Well, let’s say you want to volunteer your time in October this year. You will take time off of work or from other obligations and you want to make the biggest impact you can. Most people do not live in an area where their efforts would really make an impact. For instance, in my situation: I live in a district in which my representative will easily win reelection with 70% of the vote; there is no Senate race or Governor race, and; Biden will win the Golden State by a landslide. The impact I can make working to get folks in Oakland, CA out to vote is negligible. But, if I returned to Phoenix – where there is at least one CD that Democrats could pick up, a Senate race that the Democrat should win, and a competitive race for president in a state that could be the tipping point for a Biden victory – again this year for GOTV I could be really helpful. How do I know these things? Some of it is historical knowledge. But, the most important information I have is through polling.

My focus on polling in so many of my posts is not simply to convey current events or give people hope based on data where so many people are traumatized from the 2016 results. The point of focusing on the polling is to inform the compilation of what my good friend Steve Hurley and I call “trifecta states.” Trifecta states are states that offer volunteers the biggest impact. We usually consider a trifecta state to be one that has at least three of four competitive races going on at a time: House; Senate; Governor; President. This year I am going to try to incorporate two additional items: state legislative races and ballot questions. The state legislative races are important because the legislatures elected this year will – in most states – oversee Congressional redistricting which should be in place for the 2022 election. Ballot questions can be really important (e.g., Florida’s 2018 initiative to restore voting rights to felons who have served their sentences), but also challenging to compile and analyze complete lists for every state.

Polling is essential to understand whether any state is a trifecta state. Without having yet done a full analysis of North Carolina, I can tell you right now that the polling shows competitive races there for at least two House seats, Thom Tillis’ (R) Senate seat, Gov. Roy Cooper’s (D) reelection, and for president. I know this simply from following the polling this year even without digging into the Congressional districts that are competitive or following the governor’s race closely. Over the next few weeks, we’ll look at trifecta states including North Carolina, Arizona, Texas, and Iowa. Those states already meet the “three out of four” categories for being trifecta states. But, other states are also important even if they don’t quite make it in three categories.

The reason for analyzing and reporting trifecta states is not an academic exercise. It is to help you know how to best utilize your time to be as impactful as possible. Perhaps North Carolina looks like the best bet for impact, but you live in Nevada. It might make more sense for you to help out in Arizona. If you want – or need – to work remotely from home (phone banking, text banking, etc.) you could help out in several states, but you probably can only focus on one or two. If you want to travel, you’ll need to pick one state and you’ll probably want to pick the trifecta state that is closest to you or that you have some familiarity with.

I’ll be offering suggestions on how and where to volunteer your time and resources in this very important election – perhaps the most important in our lifetimes. I will still be reporting on the polls, but probably more as a week-in-review post on Thursday or Friday each week. And where the polls shift and that effects trifecta states, I will incorporate that data and let you know. First up – hopefully this week, but maybe the beginning of next – will be an analysis of North Carolina. We’ll go through the other trifectas with a goal of completing them before Labor Day. Coming up this week also will be discussions of ways you can contribute to the campaigns. Tomorrow, I am going to report out on the best Senate races to donate your money to if you are so inclined. I am compiling the data today and analyzing it using a combination of competitiveness (this is where polling comes in), relative cash-on-hand to opponent, and other on-the-ground information that is relevant to the importance of the race. Later in the week, we’ll discuss voting and ways to ensure that Trump’s efforts to undermine the US Postal Service do not prevent your and your neighbors’ votes from being discarded. Next week (most likely), we’ll discuss ways to help out campaigns remotely. Additionally, I will start discussing voter protection efforts and offer some suggestions for both lawyers and non-lawyers alike to help out.

The most important data I use to understand whether it makes sense to embed yourself in Nebraska’s CD-02 or Texas’ CD-23 is polling. It’s not the only data source, but it’s the most important one. Why? Again, so you can make your biggest impact. If these two CDs were your choices, you would probably want to go to Texas since there is also a competitive Senate race and a competitive presidential race – neither of which is true in Nebraska (which also has a Senate race, but the GOP incumbent is far ahead of his Democratic opponent). So, keep all this in mind as we discuss the data going forward. And start thinking about what you can or want to do to help this fall.