2026 Senate Preview

January 28, 2026

The situation in Minneapolis is creating more political trouble for Republicans, and it seems to be getting worse on a daily basis. Trump has made it clear he is worried about the midterms, and we continue to hear him and his surrogates talk about electoral issues in connection with ICE behavior. This raises the question of how he plans to use what has become his own personal militia in November. Will we see ICE arresting people at the polls? Will ICE find ways to provoke violence and shut down polling places? Don’t bet against it, but the popular resistance to ICE’s criminal behavior is gaining traction. Responding to these fascist threats are more important than discussing political horse races, but if we are going to demand a free and fair election this year we need to talk about what’s happening. Today, I will start with a preview of this year’s battle to control the Senate.

Currently, Democrats are in the minority in the Senate 53-47. Since the vice president breaks ties, Democrats need to net four seats this year to win the majority. These are the eight seats they need to focus on at the moment (keeping in mind that things can always change during the course of a campaign year).

States Democrats Need to Hold

The states Democrats need to hold are Georgia, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota. Of course, they need to win all 13 seats that are currently held by Democrats, but these are the four states that could be competitive this year.

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is running for reelection in Georgia. Despite winning a close race in a runoff in 2018 and Trump winning the state in 2024 (after losing it in 2020), Republicans have thus far fielded no strong candidates. While the final result may end up looking close, at this point it seems like Ossoff will win - especially given the national political mood. The other three states have open seats thanks to retiring incumbents. For this reason only, the seats are competitive. But even in these states, the only one that looks to be a possible Republican pick-up is Michigan.

Rep. Chris Pappas has cleared the field for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire. Republicans were disappointed when former Governor Chris Sununu passed on the race, but his brother, former Senator John Sununu, is running instead. He is not the only former Senator in the race. Former Massachusetts Senator (and former NH Senate candidate) Scott Brown is also running. Neither appears to be as strong a candidate against Pappas as Chris Sununu might have been.

In Minnesota, the situation is fluid at the moment. Lt Governor Peggy Flanagan and Rep Angie Craig are vying for the Democratic nomination. So far, it has been a rough contest between two factions of the DFL.¹ However, a solution may have arisen from the decision of Gov Tim Walz to opt out of running for a third term. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has announced her intention to run for governor, which was not a surprise. There is some buzz that Democrats will try to convince either Flanagan or Craig to drop out of the race in return for being appointed Senator should Klobuchar win the governor’s office and her Senate seat becomes vacant. There are a lot of ifs in this scenario. While Klobuchar is popular in Minnesota and most observers seem to think she will have no trouble winning the nomination and the election, she has fumbled her chance to show real leadership in the face of the ICE attacks, murders, and kidnappings in Minneapolis over the past several weeks. One thing that is unlikely at this point is any Republican winning a statewide seat in Minnesota. Republicans are going with another sports-related celebrity for their Senate candidate, Michele Tafoya. It’s not going to help her that just after announcing, a Republican candidate for governor dropped out of the race claiming that Republican support for ICE is racist (he suggested that rather than explicitly said it) and that the party was not what he was all about. The Republican brand may be red hot toxic in Minnesota by November.

Michigan is a weird state. It has some of the most progressive Democrats outside of New York City, but also Nazis who tried to kidnap the governor after the 2020 election. There are three Democratic candidates for Senate, all of whom are serious ones. Republicans seem to be consolidating around a potentially-perennial, but nonetheless serious candidate in Mike Rogers. There has been no public polling since early November, when pundits thought Gov. Gretchen Whitmer might run. So we don’t have a good sense of how the Democratic race is shaping up or their chances against Rogers in November.

States Democrats Need to Flip

Assuming they hold these four seats, Democrats need to win a net four seats to win the Senate. The top four pickup opportunities right now are North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio.

I don’t think it is controversial to say that the Democrats’ best chance at a pickup this year is in North Carolina. Despite the extreme gerrymandering that the state Republican legislature has done at both the state and federal levels combined with taking power away from the governor, the Tar Heel State is as close to being a perennial Toss-Up in statewide races as we see these days. Former Gov. Roy Cooper has cleared the Democratic field and will be the nominee for Senate this year. The most recent polling in the race, by TIPP for a Republican sponsor, has Cooper +24 over his likely Republican opponent, former RNC chairman Michael Whatley. Previous polling had Whatley doing much better, but still losing to Cooper. Cooper is very popular in North Carolina and with the current political winds, it is hard to see how he loses unless something changes. Of course, there is still time for things to change – but it is important to note that political perceptions in midterm elections can be baked in this early in the year, so there might not be as much time as it would otherwise appear to be.

The Maine Democratic primary will be a showdown between the establishment pick, Gov. Janet Mills, and the insurgent candidate, Graham Platner. The polling has generally showed both to be competitive with Sen. Susan Collins (R), but when it comes to the primary the results are all over the place. Only one quality pollster has surveyed the race so far, and that was back in October 2025. That University of New Hampshire poll had Platner beating Mills by 34 points. The six publicly-released polls since then have ranged from Mills +10 to Platner +21. The two most recent (both released last month) find opposite results with one having Mills +10 and the other (which was commissioned by Platner’s campaign) finding Platner +15. The primary is on June 9^th. We should get better polling as we head into Spring.

The recent entry of former Rep. Mary Peltola into the Alaska Senate race is a major win for Democrats. She had been considering running for governor before her announcement. Her entry makes the race immediately a Toss-Up or at least Lean Republican. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), the incumbent, was favored to win if Peltola had passed. Polling in the aftermath of her announcement found a dead heat between the two candidates. Alaska has an unusual top four ranked choice voting method. This method helped Peltola beat former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) for the House four years ago, and it may help her get past the finish line this year as well.

Ohio has my favorite former Senator running again in Sherrod Brown. The former Senator is a progressive who has been very popular in Ohio. He barely lost reelection in 2024 as the state went for Trump by double-digits. This year he is running against incumbent Sen. Jon Husted (R), who was appointed to the seat when JD Vance was elected vice president. For several election cycles, we held out hope that Ohio was still a swing state but it just does not appear that way any longer. Brown has his work cut out for him as polling has shown Husted with consistent single-digit leads. Bowling Green State University had Brown up by one point in October, but the only poll since then – by quality pollster Emerson College – found Husted leading by three points in December. Husted appears to be having trouble breaking the 50% mark, which is an indicator that an incumbent Senator is in trouble.

Next line of pickup opportunities is Iowa, Nebraska, Texas, and Florida. There is a lot of activity going on in these races right now, including the entry of whistleblower retired Lt Colonel Alexander Vindman in the Florida Senate race as a Democrat. It’s unclear at the moment whether this makes Florida competitive. It is probably best to save a discussion of these states for a later post.

1. Minnesota’s Democratic Party is officially named the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.