The news lately has been insane. Trump is accelerating his authoritarianism with threats to occupy American cities with the military. He is putting pressure on state lawmakers to conduct mid-decade political gerrymanders to favor Republicans. He has fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because the data is showing anemic job growth that would likely have been revised into job loss next month. All while ducking the fact that he was best friends with a serial pedophile and sex trafficker and there is clearly evidence he was involved in those crimes. Despite his best attempts at classic fascist misdirection (and power grabbing), it does not appear that anyone is forgetting about how guilty Trump appears in the way he has thus far handled the Epstein matter.
The Economist/YouGov has been tracking Trump’s approval rating among Republicans over the past few months. In their January poll, they found that 92% of Republicans (plus independents who leaned Republican) approved of Trump. That approval soften somewhat as of May, with 88% approving. This week’s survey shows that support now down to 83%. This represents a 17 point drop in net approval among Republicans since he was inaugurated. That may not seem like a lot, but considering how rock-solid his support has been among his own party for just about forever - and considering how thin his margin of victory was in the popular vote last year - this is a serious drop in support.
No one seems to be buying Trump’s protestations that he had nothing to do with Epstein - just eight percent of Americans say he knew nothing about what Epstein was doing. Contrast that with 71% of Americans who say he knew either some (27%) or a lot (44%) about it. This is bad news for Trump. Why? Because at this point no one will ever believe that he did not destroy or withhold evidence if he eventually relents and releases what the government has. And this is a problem of his own making because he was the one - both himself and through surrogates - demanding the “files” be released when he was running for president. And his attorney general even said she had those “files” on her desk for review before saying, oh I was wrong about that.
This is one of those stories that rational argument is not going to fix one way or the other. It is ironic, since Trump has been all about poking voters with emotional arguments and telling people not to trust the facts. This Epstein matter is more about emotion than reason (although that does not mean it’s not real or serious or documented). Trump encouraged and benefited from the QAnon conspiracy theories that claimed that a “deep state” was protecting pedophiles among the elites. Unlike a lot of other bullshit MAGA supporters have shoveled over the years, this is one thing that a lot of them seem genuinely concerned about. What is creating some degree of cognitive dissonance for them is that they thought it was all about Democrats and that Trump was their savior.
Over the past couple of months it has become difficult to seriously argue that Trump is not implicated in the Epstein matter. While the QAnon conspiracies were lies - and dangerous ones as witnessed by one guy shooting up a pizza parlor in DC where child sex trafficking by the Clintons was supposed to be taking place in the basement (the place does not have a basement) - there was a sex trafficking and pedophilia operation running for years by Epstein, and a lot of rich and powerful people were at least tangential to it. Including Trump, a man who was operating a beauty pageant for young girls that Epstein claimed was inspirational to him. I never really understood why the media did not go after Trump about this all those years ago. If he was not engaged in sex trafficking himself, those pageants, his modeling business, and they inappropriate way he talked about and interacted with underage girls sure did not make him look innocent.
So, why does Trump care anyway? He’s president with a corrupt level of immunity bestowed on him by his Supreme Court appointees. He has no problem acting like a dictator and daring a compliant Republican Party and a feckless Democratic Party to stop him. He seems to have no shame. We know he does not like to be laughed at, but he surrounds himself with sycophants, both in person and through the media, so he can convince himself he is wildly popular. Is he afraid he will be prosecuted for a crime after 2028? If so, then he seems like the kind of guy who is never going to leave the White House no matter what the Constitution says. After all, who is going to stop him?
It’s that question that is motivating Trump right now. No one is stopping him at all right now. Sure, some courts are pushing back, but the Supreme Court seems solidly in his corner and he has no problems with telling judges to go pound sand. Trump is worried about Democrats winning the House next year. If that happens, they can open all sorts of investigations against him and his historically corrupt administration. So, he is trying very hard to make sure there will not be a fair election next year. The actions Trump has taken recently are not just distractions - although they do serve that purpose - they are part of his plan to undermine the mid-terms.
The redistricting gambit is designed to maximize the number of seats that Democrats cannot compete in. It is only legal thanks to the Supreme Court’s rulings in Shelby County v Holder (2013)1 and Rucho v Common Cause (2019).2 The Shelby decision, in relevant part to this discussion, ended the authority of the federal government under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act to require states with a history of segregation from redistricting without prior approval (called preclearance). It is likely that the Trump Department of Justice, compromised as it is, would have approved any Republican gerrymander. However, section 2 of the VRA does not allow any state to conduct racial gerrymanders - and the Supreme Court is expected to gut this part of the law in the coming term in a case dealing with Louisiana’s redistricting.
But Rucho is the decision that allows states to use partisan gerrymanders. The Court’s reasoning is that this is a political question that courts cannot adjudicate. So, while section 2 is still in place, states can gerrymander all they want as long as they do not prevent racial minorities from having a fair chance to elect representatives of their choosing. If the Court strikes down section 2 in the coming term, then nothing will stop states from engaging in any sort of gerrymander that gives them political advantage.3 As long as those gerrymanders comport with the one-person-one-vote requirement of Baker v Carr (1962) - but don’t be surprised if that’s the next voting rights target for the Court.
Although the issue with the employment estimates at the BLS is not about redistricting, his meddling with data collection and analysis very much is. Trump is talking about doing a mid-year Census or using data from the 2024 election (whatever that means) to “fix” the 2020 Census in order to give Republican states more seats at the expense of Democratic states. A mid-year Census for assigning seats in the House is not constitutional or legal. The Census already conducts annual estimates which are used for various purposes, but not for apportionment or redistricting. The Constitution is clear that for those purposes the decennial Census is the only source of data. But something is afoot with government data and rigging next year’s election. The fact that Trump has appointed an author of Project 2025 who was present at the attempted coup in 2021 does not bode well for how government data will be used.
The military occupation threats are also related to the mid-terms. Trump’s military invasion of Los Angeles earlier this year was both a threat and a rehearsal for interfering with city operations whenever he wants to. The current threats to occupy Democratic-leaning cities with troops are akin to the threats he’s made against universities and law firms. “Do it my way or suffer the consequences.” Do not be surprised if Trump finds some “emergency” that requires occupying Democratic-vote-rich regions of the country next fall.
For months, Democrats have tried to act like it was business as usual, and Trump and the Republicans were just normal, although difficult, partisan opponents. The redistricting crisis has awakened some of them. While it might seem sad that it has taken an attack on Democratic incumbents’s electoral viability to get them to fight back, at least they are actually fighting now. Newsom and Pritzker are leading the charge to say, “if Republicans won’t play fair then neither will we.” I can’t remember the time Democratic leaders didn’t fall back on the “we’re better than this” conceit and unilaterally disarm. It is essential for Democrats to fight back these attacks on democracy and freedom with everything in their arsenal. Not only that, it is what Democratic voters want them to do - and have been begging them to do for months.
Despite this, Democratic leaders continue to misunderstand the electorate and their base. And they are taking hits in public opinion for it. While Schumer, Gillibrand, and Jeffries continue to equivocate over Mamdani, their approval ratings are falling. Schumer now has the first negative approval rating in his entire career among New Yorkers. Cuomo is taking advice from Trump and telling capitalists in private meetings that he is not going to fight him.
Democratic centrists continue to argue that the party should move to the right on economic and social issues despite more and more evidence that voters want them to move left (or at least be economically populist). The party’s problems with voters have not been that they are too radical on economic issues; it’s that they are too in-bed with corporate and investor interests. A recent survey of 2020 Biden voters who sat out the 2024 election showed that a lot of them did so for this very reason. (More on this here.) Mamdani’s success in the New York Democratic mayoral primary was in large part to his focus on affordability issues, something Cuomo is now pretending to care about even as he tells the bosses behind closed doors not to worry, he just needs to defeat the socialist.
The 2026 mid-terms are going to be important. Trump is trying hard to make sure the election will be rigged in his favor. He is scared about a potential Democratic majority in the House - something that seems likely if the election is fair. But even if it is fair, Democrats risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory if they continue to listen to centrists and their well-paid consultants. With any luck, many of these establishment Democrats will lose primary challenges next year. That may be the only way to ensure that Democrats win.
Shelby County v Holder, 570 US 529 (2013).
Rucho v Common Cause, 588 US 684 (2019).
The Supreme Court has set oral arguments in this case for October 15, 2025 - which is the first week of the new term. This will allow it to issue a ruling early enough to impact the 2026 election. And if the Court strikes down section 2 in time to impact the election, that means we could see further redistricting in Republican states, possibly eliminating a number of seats held by non-white Representatives.