Biden Withdrawal Appears Likely This Weekend
July 18, 2024
Somewhere over the Midwest, Thursday evening, July 18th. Thanks to the miracle of technology, I can research, write, and publish while aloft in an airplane at 30,000 feet. My post on the battleground state polling will come tomorrow, although it may need some rethinking depending on how the news goes in the next few hours.
“This is an absolute debacle. Only amateurs see a path. The red is mushrooming all across the map.”
— A senior Democratic official who is close to congressional leadership, quoted by Politico, on the state of the presidential race.
We’re close to the end.
Mark Halperin reports on the platform-formerly-known-as-Twitter that President Biden is making plans to announce his withdrawal from the race this weekend.
There has been a lot of buzz in the past few hours suggesting Biden was both getting a lot more pressure to do so and that he was also softening his position on staying in the race. Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has been pushing Biden and his team on how bad the polling and feedback from constituents has been. Someone finally called Biden on his incredulous suggestion that he was running even or ahead in the polls, and to no surprise it was Pelosi. No one knows how to count votes - in the caucus or in the field - better than her.
Ms. Pelosi told Mr. Biden in a recent call that she had seen polling data suggesting that he could not win, and the president had pushed back, saying he had polls showing otherwise.
Ms. Pelosi, never shy in such situations, challenged him on that.
“Put Donilon on the phone,” Ms. Pelosi told the president, referring to Mike Donilon, the president’s longtime aide, according to people familiar with the exchange, which was reported earlier by CNN. “Show me what polls.”
By this afternoon, there were multiple reports of other Democratic leaders trying to work behind the scenes to encourage Biden to see the reality of his situation.1 Even Al Sharpton, who earlier had come to Biden’s defense after the debate, called on the president to reconsider his decision to stay in the race. Biden himself seem to open the door for reconsideration, telling an interviewer that he would withdraw if a medical situation demanded it and letting people know that he was open to “listening” to their arguments for withdrawal. He has also said that he would not run if there is no way he can win.
According to Halperin’s sources, Biden will not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris (or presumably anyone else) and the party would have an open convention with a handful of candidates. I know some people might cry foul, but I think there is a good reason to not simply pass the baton to Harris: the concern that it’s coronation rather than a deliberate decision. Harris will likely win at the convention. The delegates are almost all pledged to Biden, so it is almost a certainty that a large plurality of them are with her or will be. She is also the obvious replacement candidate and she is polling pretty much as well as anyone else is in the hypothetical match-ups. (Harris is apparently smartly vetting vice presidential candidates right now in anticipation that she will be the nominee.) A debate among a few Democratic rising stars, if done right, can take over the news for a couple of weeks - and if there is some reason to believe Harris is not up to the task (don’t worry - she is) that should come out with a little healthy competition. This would be an opportunity to showcase what Democrats have to offer. August can turn into one long convention for the party. It could be a boon and a tremendous reboot for Democrats as long as they keep their heads about them and not devolve into nasty in-fighting.
This news is developing quickly and perhaps by the time you read this there will be a new dimension to it. In my next post, I will follow-up yesterday’s with a discussion of the battleground state polling. It will still be relevant - as an explanation of how bad it is for Biden, what forced his mind to reconsider the race, and what challenges and opportunities there are for a new Democratic nominee.
Some on social media seem to think this is some kind of unfair power play when it is much more likely these Democrats respect the president and don’t want to have to publicly call for him to withdraw, but rather allow him to do so on his own terms.