Do Democrats Now Have an Advantage in Mid-Term Elections? Upcoming Special Elections Might Give Us a Hint
March 10, 2025
One of the things we saw in the run-up to the 2024 general election that convinced people like me that Democrats were going to do better than the polls expected was the over-performance party candidates had in special and off-year elections. We are three months removed from that election - which Democrats lost - and we have had at least five special elections at the state level. Democratic over-performance was over 10 points. Last month, a Democrat won a special election for an Iowa state senate seat in a district that Trump won in November by over 20 points. The outgoing incumbent Republican in that district had previously won the seat by a similar margin. So, what if anything is going on?
You’ve heard me say it before, but it bears repeating: in politics, the conventional wisdom is always correct — until it isn’t. For a long time, it was conventional wisdom that presidential elections were good years for Democrats and midterms were good years for Republicans. Democrats seemed to have trouble getting a lot of their coalition out to vote in midterms, while Republicans depended on seniors and college graduates to vote in every election that comes their way. A related phenomenon - which is important right now - is that low-propensity voters were low information voters, and that they were a natural part of the Democratic constituency.
That is a big reason why both parties have been so concerned about voter suppression. Democrats see it as burdening their base, while Republicans also see it as burdening the Democratic base. We now have plenty of evidence that, regardless of whether this was ever true, it is not anymore. Voter suppression efforts may be discouraging Republican voters from going to the polls; at least, when Trump is not on the ballot.
Republicans used to be the party of the highly educated voters. In a time when a college education meant a middle class or better standard of living from the start, Republican appeals to protecting property and keeping taxes low resonated with the college educated. In fact, increasingly better standards of living was key to Republicans winning elections. It’s ironic given that almost every federal and state policy designed to protect Americans’ standard of living was first advocated by organized labor and then secondly enacted by Democrats (or, decades ago, coalitions of liberal and moderate Democrats and Republicans - yes, there use to be such things as moderate and a liberal Republicans). The stability and enlargement of the middle class is what formed the basis of the old saw that - at least in the US - people are liberal when they are young, but get more conservative as they age. The right wing swing to neoliberal economics gutted entry and the sustainability of the middle class. This should have proven deadly to the Republican coalition, but unfortunately Democrats were also champions of this economic policy.
Today, college educated voters are as likely to be part of the contingent workforce as they are climbing the corporate ladder. Their economic interests are no longer coupled with Republican economic policy. But additionally, many college educated voters are concerned about non-economic issues as well, and - despite their cynical rhetoric - Republicans are the party opposed to liberty and democracy.
We will have to continue to examine this phenomena as we experience more special and off-year elections this year. Speaking of which: we are about to see our first federal special elections since the 2024 general election.
There are two special elections in Florida on April 1. Both are seats vacated by Republicans and will likely be held by the party next month.1 However, these elections are important to watch to see if there is a Democratic over-performance in either the turnout or the final results. If there is, it will tell us something about how the 2026 midterms are shaping up. If not, it probably does not because both of these seats are so safely Republican.
There are at least two more special House elections to come. One is a safe Democratic seat in Houston2 which has become vacant due to the unexpected passing of Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner last week. Like with the Florida specials, the result will likely not be in question but the issue of Democratic over-performance will be. However, with this seat Democratic under-performance could tell us something very different than the story we think we are seeing thus far in the special and off-year elections.
The final special election will be for Rep. Elise Stafanik’s (R-NY) seat.3 She was nominated to be the UN Ambassador months ago, but the Senate has not held a confirmation vote yet. This is because the Republicans’ House margin is so slim. In fact, if it were not for Stafanik’s vote, the House would not have passed its budget framework. That bill - which sets the stage for massive cuts to Medicaid - passed the House by just one vote. Stafanik will likely not be confirmed for a few weeks and the special for her seat will probably take place over the summer - although it could coincide with the November local elections. There has been some discussions about changing the law to make sure the special can be held in November.
Finally, perhaps the most important election happening now is next month’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election. You may remember that just two years ago there was an important election for the same court. Wisconsin Republicans had gerrymandered legislative (state and federal) maps in a way that gave them highly disproportionate seats. The conservative majority had upheld that gerrymander, but voters elected a progressive justice in 2023 in a landslide victory which tipped the court back to a liberal majority. Also on April 1, this election will fill the seat of a retiring liberal justice - threatening to turn the court back to its previous conservative majority. Unlike 2023, there are only two candidates - Susan Crawford, a liberal Dane County judge and Brad Schimel, a former Republican Attorney General. Unless there is some significant write-in candidate that appears, there should be no run-off and the results on April 1 will be final. Check out this episode of The Downballot podcast for a deep dive into this election.
The two seats are for the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts in Florida. Both are being vacated by Republicans who previously won elections by margins of over 30 points.
The seat is the 18th Congressional District in Texas. Turner won election in 2024 by just short of 40 points.
The seat is the 21st Congressional District in New York. Stafanik won election in 2024 by 24 points.