Don’t Worry about Maryland: Hogan is Not Going to Win
May 15, 2024
Things are going well here at AAPOR in Atlanta. I’ll have something interesting things to report soon. In the meantime, there was an important primary election in Maryland yesterday. Hopefully, it plus recent polling will put an end to needless anxiety some folks are having about the chances the former Republican governor will win the race.
There has been some hand-wringing in the past few months about the US Senate campaign of former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD). Hogan is a popular former governor who had proven he could win Black votes - particularly those of Black men - who had recently completed two terms and has been a Trump critic. He flirted with running for president on the No Labels ticket, and pundits quickly assumed he was the odds-on favorite to win the Maryland Senate. Honestly, though, there was - and is - no good reason to believe that.
There is little evidence that being a popular Republican governor in an otherwise Democratic state translates into being a successful Senate candidate. You can ask Senator Bill Weld (R-MA) if you don’t believe me.1 But, it’s not just about party - it is difficult to make the transition from successful state executive candidate to successful federal legislative candidate. Some of this is about the candidate, not the office. Governors - particularly ones that have never served first as a state legislator - can find it hard to both articulate a reason to make the switch to legislator and to explain what they would do as one of many rather than the one who makes all the decisions. Hogan’s challenges are myriad. He is trying to win a legislative race in a federal contest as a Republican in a Democratic state where he was the state’s chief executive.
Yet, an early February poll by a Republican political consultant had Hogan beating both Democratic candidates handily. However, this poll could be dismissed as partisan nonsense from a pollster lacking any transparency. However, in mid-March, a Washington Post poll similarly found Hogan way ahead of both Democrats in head to head matchups. That poll got a lot of attention in the political media. This fed the fears of Democrats and was fuel for pundits who want every election to be a nail-biter or an upset. The sober analysis of this poll was that it was a name recognition poll. It was conducted three-and-a-half months before the primary - and even longer before the general election. The Democratic candidates were just beginning to introduce themselves to a statewide audience. One clue to this survey being a name recognition poll is that Hogan was beating both candidates by essentially the same margin.2
By mid-April, the polling showed Hogan in a dead heat with both candidates. Last week, a poll by Public Policy Polling (538 rating 1.4) found both Democrats beating Hogan by around ten points. What changed?3 There was a campaign. You have heard me say it before many times: campaigns matter. The Democratic candidates introduced themselves to the public over several months and voters got a chance to really consider their choice rather than just who they knew. And in a Democratic state where the national Republican Party is toxic, Maryland voters were unlikely to send anyone to the Senate to help the GOP win control of that chamber.
To be fair, the general election campaign starts today and November is still six months away. It is not impossible for Hogan to win. But it is unlikely. In fact, I find it hard to put Maryland in any category other than Safe Democratic. However, I do think it is fair for observers to hedge their bets and give it a Likely Democratic rating because Hogan is the Republican candidate. While I think he will certainly lose, he is a serious candidate who has won statewide twice before and he is not running against an incumbent.
As for the Democratic side of the race, former Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks beat U.S. Rep. David Trone in an apparent landslide in yesterday’s primary. Most observers (and polls) thought the election would be close, but Trone ran a divisive campaign complete with the kinds of gaffes that a rich white guy in Maryland cannot afford to make. He also had a hard time defining himself as a progressive because of his many donations to Republican office-holders and candidates. Trone spent almost $62 million of his own money on the campaign. The one downside I can see to Trone losing is that he could have self-financed a general election campaign. But, the upside is that Alsobrooks is the much stronger general election candidate.
Alsobrooks as of this writing has a 12 point lead over Trone with about 2/3 of the vote counted. Trone cannot win; there are not enough outstanding votes - and he is losing his home county. Alsobrooks has more votes than all votes cast in the Republican primary, which is an indicator of how much support there is for the Democrats compared to Hogan.4
Source: New York Times
It is more likely that a larger portion of Trone’s vote will go to Alsobrooks than her’s would have gone to him based on Hogan’s ability to win Black voters in his gubernatorial campaigns. This is one reason Alsobrooks is the stronger general election candidate of the two. Trone’s primary campaign, which included some racial gaffes, might have turned some of Alsobrooks supporters to Hogan’s camp if he had won. What we see from the election results thus far is not only has Alsobrooks performed strongly in Black communities, but she also performed strongly in wealthier white communities outside DC. The combination shows her to be a very strong general election candidate with the ability to appeal to wide swaths of the electorate.
If you were worried about Maryland electing a Republican Senator this year, you should rest assured he won’t (well, as far anything is “assured” in politics). If Hogan wins this race it will because of some major scandal with Alsobrooks or a sign that Republicans are winning big around the country. At the moment, I have no reason to believe either is going to happen.
Bill Weld was a popular Republican governor in Democratic Massachusetts. He won a huge landslide reelection in 1994 and decided to challenge a much-less-popular Sen. John Kerry (D) in the 1996 election. Despite polling showing the race a toss-up, Kerry won by 7.6 points. Years later, Weld unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination for US Senate in New York.
This is a clue that the respondents could have just been responding according to name recognition. It does not in any way establish that.
Let’s put aside for the moment that the February poll might have been more Republican PR nonsense rather than an actual scientific poll.
Hogan had primary opponents, but he was the heavy favorite and won with 62% of the vote.