France: Last Hour Before the Polls Close
July 7, 2024
I am mobile at the moment while I am writing this. Please forgive the lack of links to sources. I will try to add them later, unless I use this to build upon for a later post after the votes are in.
The French polls close in less than an hour as I write this. Some results overseas are already in, but almost all of the seats in the National Assembly are decided in France. The turnout is about 60% so far, which may be the highest ever for a legislative election.1
It is looking increasingly unlikely that the neofascist National Rally (RN) will gain an absolute majority today, even with its allies. RN still should finish as the largest party and with its allies the largest bloc. However, the leftist New Popular Front (NPF) does have a chance to challenge them.
The polling we saw a few days ago after the tactical withdrawals were completed showed RN getting as much as 250 seats in the second round. A party (or bloc) needs 289 votes for a majority. However, support for RN appears to have slipped during the week. The final poll for the race conducted by Ipsos sees RN gaining no more than 205 seats. The ranges are as follows:
RN: 175-205
NPF: 145-175
ENS: 118-148
The president of the Republic appoints the prime minister, but the National Assembly can reject the choice with a vote of no confidence. So it is important for President Macron to appoint a PM who can at least survive such a vote. Although it does not appear to be required that he appoint a PM from a party that has an absolute majority, politically he will have no choice. While it does not appear that any party or bloc will command a majority today, there should be enough support among NPF and Ensemble to provide a governing majority. A lot of observers seem to think that without a majority there will be a hung Parliament as France has no history of coalition government. But there is always a first, and the urgency to stop the far right might provide the rationale.
Le Monde has reported a significant increase in racial and homophobic assaults and threats recently, with many assailants using their support for RN as a justification for their actions. Some have even said explicitly that when RN is in power they will be unrestrained to attack with impunity.
Whether this will help turn the French against RN remains to be seen. The polls are about to close and we will know the results soon.
This is an edit. The earlier version said turnout was not as high as the first round. That was incorrect.