French Election: Tactical Withdrawals for an Antifascist Strategy
July 4, 2024
While voters in the UK go to the polls today to elect a Labour government, political fortunes across the Channel are dangerously blowing in the other direction. Last Sunday in France, the neofascist National Rally (RN) and its allies came in first place by winning a third of the vote in the first round of the national election. This week, a major multiparty antifascist effort is underway to stop RN from winning a majority in the National Assembly in this Sunday’s second round of voting. The center-left in France is uniting under the slogan “Block the far right.”
In the first round of voting, any candidate who did not receive at least 12.5% of the vote in an electoral district was eliminated. Once the votes were counted and candidates eliminated, 306 districts had three candidates and five had four candidates. But there will be far fewer than 311 multi-candidate races in the second round. That is because the New Popular Front (NFP) and Ensemble have successfully convinced a large portion of their third and fourth place candidates to drop out of the race in an effort of maximize the chances of defeating the RN.
Instead of 306 three-way races, there will be 89. Instead of five four-way races there will be two. Candidates from left-wing parties affiliated with NFP withdrew in 134 races to give the candidate from centrist parties affiliated with Ensemble a chance to win. Centrist parties’ candidates withdrew in 82 races. There were a handful of right-wing candidate withdrawals. The far right candidates likely withdrew to give RN a better chance to win, while there were three withdrawals from the Republicans to give Ensemble a better chance to win.
As a result, there will be 149 duels between NFP and RN. Ensemble will contest 134 duels with RN. That’s up to 283 districts that could have gone to RN with plurality victories absent the withdrawals. To form a governing majority in the National Assembly, a party or coalition needs 289 seats.
How did this unprecedented electoral collaboration come to be? Well, it was not without its challenges. Decisions had to be made by the end of the business day on Tuesday, giving the two major party blocs only 48 hours to work out the details. The NFP asked all of its third and fourth place candidates to withdraw in races where RN finished first. But then, centrist PM Gabriel Attal would only recommend Ensemble candidates withdraw in districts where the candidate to be helped was from a party within the “republican arc.” While everyone knew which specific party Attal was referring to, it wasn’t clear at first - and apparently still isn’t to some - which parties fall out of the arc.1
The biggest issue here is one party in the NPF coalition: France Unbowed (LFI). Attal and his allies consider LFI to be politically outside republican values. They have also criticized the party for anti-semitism. Attal, a former Socialist, has been at odds with the left - and particularly LFI - during his short tenure as prime minister. The minority government was always on shaky ground and, while no one expected a snap election after the European legislative elections, it was common knowledge that President Emmanuel Macron was going to call an election this year or early next year. The National Assembly has been ungovernable in its current make-up — which is one reason why there was concern over whether NPF and Ensemble could work together to stop RN in the second round.
The refusal of Ensemble to consider withdrawing in races that could give LFI a chance to win has not been a deal breaker for the antifascist effort, probably because everyone understands what the stakes are in this election.2 And then there is LFI’s leader, Jean Luc Mélenchon, who is a controversial figure even among NPF members. He unilaterally put himself out as the NPF’s candidate for prime minister at one time and acts in public as if he is the leader of NPF, which has angered many of the parties in the coalition. So it’s probably not surprising that NPF did not push back on Attal for refusing to work to help LFI win. And now that the Tuesday deadline has come and gone, there is no chance for anyone to change their mind about withdrawing. The races are now set for Sunday.
There has been no public polling released for the second round yet. I would not be surprised if we do not get any before Saturday because the field was not even established until Tuesday night and it takes several days for a poll to be in the field to get enough respondents for a poll to have any accuracy.
Sixteen Ensemble candidates refused to withdraw to help LFI beat RN. Three Ensemble candidates have stayed in a three-way race with either a Green or a Socialist (both members of NPF).
Surprisingly, LFI has called on its third place candidates to withdraw in districts where Ensemble has the best chance to win.