Newsletter Update
I apologize for not publishing any posts in the past month. If you are curious why Margin of Error Blog has gone dark, it's because I have been busy putting together voter assistance guides for over a dozen states for the Democracy Capacity Project.1 These guides are intended to help small nonprofit organizations engaging in voter registration drives, vote-by-mail assistance, and line warming activities stay compliant with state and local election rules.
DCP also puts out state and local lobbying guides for nonprofits. I've been helping them with that as well, but we have been focusing on the voter assistance guides for the past month. We are hoping to have some webinars up on lobbying before state legislative sessions begin in January and February. These guides are nonpartisan and for the use and benefit of any nonprofit organization that may be interested.
If you or someone you know works or is a member of a nonprofit that is or hopes to work on voter education, GOTV activities, or interacting with your state and local elected officials (which may require you to register as a lobbyist, even if you think you are not really a lobbyist), have them check out the DCP website. These guides are free for you to download or read online.
Going forward this election cycle, I am going to try to keep up doing weekly updates on Target Senate races, at the least. Unfortunately, I am so busy with work that I am not able to keep up with the comprehensive reports this cycle. I will post some analyses on the polling and election rules and offer ways to get involved and support organizing groups on the ground as well as campaigns; this will likely be more frequent after the middle of October when I will be focused on GOTV work. In the meantime, follow me on Twitter and Facebook. You can also follow the Margin of Error Blog Facebook page here. I post on social media about polling, elections, and politics frequently.
Update for Target Senate Races:
Arizona – Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly. The race between Kelly and Republican nominee Blake Masters appears to have tightened, but even Republicans do not believe that. McConnell pulled millions of dollars of TV buys out of the state recently. Masters is a right-wing conspiracy theorist who wants to put women in jail who have abortions. After the drubbing that anti-abortion advocates took in Kansas in August, Masters was one of several wingnut Republican nominees who scrubbed their websites of extremist anti-abortion positions and aired ads featuring their wives talking about what great men they are. Kelly should win this race, but it would be a mistake to overlook the fact that the margin is shrinking and Kelly’s support is back under 50% in the three most recent polls (although one of those is Trafalgar2). The 538 polling average has Kelly up by 7.4 points.
Florida – Democratic challenger Rep. Val Demings. This race is closer than folks might realize, but Sen. Marco Rubio (R) maintains nearly a four-point lead in the polling average. Rubio has flirted with 50%, but he can’t quite break past it. There do not appear to be many undecideds in this race, which could play to Demings advantage if she can increase the Democratic share of the vote or cleave off some pro-choice Republican voters.
Georgia – Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock. In a normal country, Republican nominee Herschel Walker not only would not have a shot against Sen. Raphael Warnock, but he would probably be institutionalized. He is very clearly suffering from mental illness and has violent tendencies. That the entire Republican establishment is behind him says almost everything you need to know about the GOP today. Yet, Warnock leads in most polls – in fact, he has led in all but one poll this month. In Georgia, a candidate has to win over 50% of the vote on Election Day or there is a run-off (this year it will be December 6th), and this election looks like it might be headed that way. Again. If you recall, Warnock won the special election in 2020 in a run-off along with his colleague Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).
The polling might be underestimating Warnock this year because the electorate modeling being done by Georgia pollsters has apparently favored men by a margin not justified by the actual turnout in recent election cycles. It’s possible this is one way some pollsters are adjusting for the “hidden Trump voter” phenomenon, but actual voter data this year suggests this is a mistake. TargetSmart reports that voter registrations among women spiked after the Dobbs decisions and early vote data shows higher participation rates among Democrats, women, and persons of color compared with the same timeframe in 2020. If you can, be prepared to help out Warnock in December. The balance of power in the Senate could once again hinge on Georgia. But even if the Democrats win a majority without Georgia in November, we have seen in the past two years that we need two more Senators to make up for the legislative roadblocks created by Sens. Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ).3
North Carolina – Democratic nominee former state Chief Justice Cheri Beasley. This open seat race has been even for some time now. This has surprised some commentators, but it shouldn’t. The Republican Budd is not well-liked, even by Republicans. Beasley has been elected statewide before, although she lost a razor-thin race for Chief Justice in 2020. Recently, the polling has been starting to favor Budd (slightly), changing the 538 polling average to a one point advantage for Budd at the moment.
Nevada – Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto. This race is close, but a little volatile. What is particularly concerning is that incumbent Cortez-Masto is not hitting 50% in any poll, and in fact both candidates are often in low or mid 40s. Nevada has a unique option on the ballot called “None of these candidates,” which could be a factor. However, if a significant number of Nevadans are undecided as we hit November, that will not be good for Cortez-Masto. The Democrat is up by less than a point in the polling average. The governor and some of the House races here are hotly contested as well. Nevada, like Arizona, is a state with many important races up and down the ballot this year. It should be high on any list for those considering to be a traveling volunteer in this year.
New Hampshire – Democratic incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan. Republicans did themselves no favors nominating a fascist conspiracy theorist against incumbent moderate Democrat Hassan. The race was close before the September primary, but with Bolduc has the GOP standard bearer, she is pulling away. The polling since the primary has been favoring Hassan by double-digits (with one +8) and she is over 50% in two of the three most recent polls. The polling average is Hassan +7.3, but it’s only that close because pre-primary polls are still influencing the average. At this point, the more important reason to travel to New Hampshire to volunteer is for the two House races and proximity to ME-02, which promises to be a close one for Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME).
Ohio – Democratic nominee Rep. Tim Ryan. That this open seat race is close is a function of candidate quality. Ryan is probably the best candidate the Democrats could have fielded – in a more purple state he would probably be up by 3-5 points. JD Vance is a terrible candidate who is forcing Republicans to spend money in a state that they reasonably thought would be a certain hold for them. The one thing that Vance has going for him, which is related to the Republican lean of the state, is that Ryan has not hit 50% in any of the polling and there are a significant number of undecideds – significant in the sense that there are enough to change the outcome depending on how they break. There’s a good chance that if Ryan wins Ohio, it will be a bad night for Republicans. However, if Vance wins it will not necessarily tell us anything about the national trend. Ryan has had bigger leads, but right now the polling average has him barely beating Vance. I would call it even at this point.
Pennsylvania – Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. Fetterman is winning this open seat race against TV grifter Mehmet Oz (R), who has to be one of the worst candidates in the social media age. It is a testament to how many voters in the Keystone State will vote for anyone with an R next to their name that this race is not an absolute blow-out. The race has gotten closer as Republicans have consolidated around Oz after a very close primary win. The margin is still big – the 538 polling average has Fetterman up by over seven points – but do not be surprised if the final result is close. Fetterman does win over 50% in some polls, but under it in others. If undecideds break his way, he’ll probably win in a landslide. But if they break for Oz – and it’s safe to assume they will, even if not entirely – this race could be a 51-49 win for Fetterman. As of right now, it does not appear that Oz can overcome the deficit he has made for himself.
Wisconsin – Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. Barnes was polling well against Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson right after the primary, but the GOP has launched attack ads on him since that have brought the race closer. The attacks have brought Barnes’ support down more than they have raised Johnson’s support. The 538 polling average has the race tied at this point. In the six different polls so far in September, Barnes is leading in only one of them. All of the pollsters are excellent ones (not including Trafalgar). The margins in every poll are close and there are few undecideds, although neither candidate is hitting 50%. This looks like a toss-up right now. Johnson, who is a putschist, needs to go. If you are in Midwest, make this a priority election for you.
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not a project of Democracy Capacity Project. DCP is a nonpartisan nonprofit organization that provides information on state election and lobbying laws for nonprofit organizing groups. Margin of Error Blog is my own work and receives no support, financial or otherwise, from DCP or its funders. I am entirely responsible for all of the content here.
Trafalgar gets A- rating from 538, but does not deserve it. The ratings are based on polling in the last three weeks before an election, and Trafalgar has done well recently by this measure. However, there is a reason for this. Trafalgar changes its methods at that point, but before then – like right now – they seem to just make up results that drive the narrative it wants the media to report.
There has been some speculation recently that Sinema is going to switch parties after the election if doing so will give Republicans the majority.