Next Tuesday is Election Day. Most elections being held this year are local ones (see final section below). However, two states have gubernatorial elections: New Jersey and Virginia.
Governor Polling Update
Polling indicates that Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has a double-digit lead in New Jersey. No one seriously expects this race to be close. Of course, it could be close. Polling has its limits, as we have seen time and again. One small cause for concern is that Monmouth (A) has been polling registered voters, while other A-rated pollsters have been polling likely voters. Monmouth has Murphy up by 11-13 points in its last two surveys, but Emerson (A-), Stockton (A/B), and National Research (A/B) have the race in single digits. Likely voter screens and finding the right composition of the electorate are tricky and sometimes fail so bad they get the outcome reversed. However, even with likely voters, the other pollsters have Murphy up by anywhere from three to nine points. The gap between them and Monmouth may suggest a turnout problem for Murphy, but that may just make for a closer race rather than giving his Republican opponent an advantage. If Murphy loses or the race is very close, we’ll be having a different discussion about the 2022 midterms on Wednesday than we’d be having today.
In Virginia, the stakes are higher, mostly because the race is and has been closer than New Jersey’s. Former governor and current Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe has been consistently in the lead in the polling, but it has been close and in the past week has gotten even closer. In fact, thanks to a new Fox News poll (A) showing Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin up by eight points, the FiveThirtyEight polling average is even. One concern I see is that McAuliffe consistently polls under 50%. We know that the adage “Democrats get what they poll” has been fairly accurate in presidential contests. If that adage holds in Virginia, McAuliffe is in trouble. Most observers, however, think that the polls are underestimating the Democrat’s support.
Source: FiveThirtyEight
As you know, I have made a point in the past of pointing out that Fox News polling is excellent and has not been meddled with by the propagandists at the network. Since their Decision Desk called Arizona for Biden on Election Night 2020, a number of right-wingers have been calling for a new polling operation at the network (not despite of, but because it was correct). The latest Fox News poll, having Youngkin up by eight points among likely voters, raises the suspicion of whether the propagandists have been successful. I don’t have any inside information about what’s going on with Fox News polling, but it could be nothing. Perhaps the Republican has surged past McAuliffe (although there is little other evidence to confirm this right now) or perhaps the poll is an outlier. The Washington Post/George Mason University (A+) has a poll out today with McAuliffe up by one point among likely voters, so while Fox News could be wrong the race may still have tightened even further.
However, there appears to be some potentially significant problems with the Fox News sample. For instance, the sample includes an equal number of Biden and Trump voters when, in fact, Biden won Virginia by ten points. The finding that just 49% of women support the Democratic nominee seems hard to believe. It appears that the likely voter screens expect a depressed vote among Democrats that is not currently supported by the early vote – and there is reason to believe that Election Day turnout will not significantly advantage either candidate.1
Why is This Important?
If you don’t live in Virginia, then you probably aren’t that interested in the outcome of next Tuesday’s election. But you should be. Just like you should have been interested in the outcome of September’s recall election of California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). The defeat of the recall sent a message that the fascist/Trump wing of the Republican Party cannot win elections in blue states. A McAuliffe win in Virginia may send a similar message about purple states.2
Does this mean that the outcome of these elections will halt the fascist tendencies of the Republican Party? Maybe, but probably not. It should, however, complicate them. And it should further damage Trump himself as a leader in the party. If his endorsements and efforts on behalf of his endorsed candidates cannot get them over the finish line – or indeed actively turn voters away from them – at some point candidates are going to distance themselves from him. Either that or be satisfied losing.3
However, here’s where the anti-democratic election laws Republicans are pushing in battleground states come in. Instead of taking the message and moderating their positions and rhetoric to reflect what the electorate wants, Republican state legislators would prefer to create conditions to ensure as far as possible that Democrats cannot win (or cannot be certified as winners of ) elections. If Democratic Senators will put aside their filibuster fetishism and enact the two voting rights bills the House has passed, Republicans in states with large numbers of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents will have to compete in free and fair elections that the recall result in California and a McAuliffe win in Virginia will demonstrate they cannot win by embracing Trump.
Should McAuliffe lose - and especially if Murphy loses or barely survives - the rhetoric will shift quickly to right among Democratic centrists. Instead of worrying that voters are punishing Democrats for not passing the popular legislation a few centrists are holding up and watering down, these forces in the party - which are still well-funded and politically strong - will almost certainly look at the result not just as a warning sign that they will lose the midterms, but that the solution is to be more like Republicans. This will mean letting Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) essentially dictate what happens in Congress, including confirming judicial appointments.
What You Can Do
If you want to help elect the Democratic ticket in Virginia, you’ll find a number of volunteer actions here.
Fair Fight Action (Stacey Abrams’ group) is also looking for volunteers. They are asking for volunteers to:
Reach out to everyone you know in Virginia to make sure they’ve checked out iWillVote.com and made their plan to vote! Then, share this link on social media.
Volunteer at a Get-Out-The-Vote event near you! Knocking on doors is still the #1 way you can help in Virginia, but if you can’t make it in person, sign up to phonebank instead! Check out your volunteer options here.
Sign up here to become a Voter Protection Super Volunteer! There are many roles available, and most can be done from home.
There are hundreds of local elections around the country on Tuesday. For some of the more interesting races and ballot questions for progressives, Movement Voter Project has information and ideas for how to participate. I could not find a specific link, so I have copied relevant parts of the email they recently sent me below.
Elections we’ll be watching this Tuesday...
MVP’s local partners are working on hundreds of elections next Tuesday. Below are a few we’ll be watching closely. Less than one year from the all-important midterms, these elections are interesting both as bellwethers - and are critical opportunities for local field organizations to warm up for 2022.
Virginia: Governor & VA House of Delegates
This is the big one. If we lose, or even if it's close, it will be a huge warning sign for 2022. MVP has invested or advised over $630,000 into Virginia this year. Our grassroots partners like New Virginia Majority are running a huge collaborative operation to contact 1.4 million voters to elect Governor McAuliffe, Lieutenant Governor Hala Ayala, and the entire Democratic slate. They’re up against Republican self-funder Youngkin who has dumped more than $12 million into an unprecedented campaign, testing multiple prongs of the GOP playbook for 2022. He’s mobilizing anti-mask and “Critical Race Theory” backlash. He’s appealing to swing voters. And he’s also targeting progressive constituencies like Latinos and students. To make matters worse, the largest youth vote operation in Virginia (which normally spends $1 million plus) isn’t happening this year (!!!). When we realized this was the case, MVP pitched in last minute for a campus vote program — but we fear it will be too little too late. We probably should have moved more money earlier to Virginia; we will be on pins and needles watching the results.
New Jersey: Governor
Most polls show Democrat Phil Murphy ahead by high single digits. If it's much closer than that, it will be a huge warning sign. We moved a little bit of money and are planning to move a lot more to New Jersey in 2022 once the new House map becomes clear.
Detroit, Michigan: City Clerk
Progressive reformer Denzel McCampbell is running an uphill campaign against a terrible, old-school machine incumbent, Janice Winfrey, who has been the Detroit City Clerk since 2005. She is an infamously bad administrator but is still somehow relatively popular. The Detroit Free Press endorsed McCampbell. Detroit Action and other partners are waging this uphill campaign — it would be a breakthrough upset if they win. We’re also watching several races in the Detroit city council, Dearborn mayor, and the suburban Kentwood city council.
Minneapolis, Minnesota: Yes4MPLS & Rent control ballot measures
Minneapolis has been an epicenter of movement and strife between police and communities, and it has a ballot measure to reform the police department. Minneapolis and St. Paul also both have important ballot measures for rent control. MVP local partners like Faith in Minnesota, Inquilidxs Unidxs por Justicia, and New Justice Project are organizing to win rent stabilization. With half of Minneapolis renters spending more than one-third of their incomes on rent, passing rent control will make a huge difference in people’s lives. Minneapolis mayor, city council, and municipal races will be seen as a referendum on police vs. the Movement for Black Lives in the wake of George Floyd’s murder.
Austin, Texas: No Way on Prop A
Texas Republicans and police unions are trying to undo cuts to policing, an important 2020 ballot measure victory in one of Texas' most progressive cities. Austin Justice Coalition and others are working hard to educate the public that Prop A would result in steep cuts to firefighters, mental health, Emergency Medical Services, and more. Looks like a toss-up.
Pennsylvania: Supreme Court
A sleepy race for Pennsylvania Supreme Court recently got scary with unethical attack ads aimed at the Democratic candidate. There are lots of other important down-ballot races in Pennsylvania as well — including county commissions that will determine control of election administration in multiple swing counties.
Tucson, Arizona: Living Wage Ballot Measure
Tucson, the largest city in Arizona’s second-largest county (Pima County), has a ballot measure (Prop 206) to raise the minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025. Local grassroots partners, including People’s Defense Initiative and Working Families Party, in coalition with other local community groups, are working hard to win it.
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: Mayor
Long-time progressive Black State Senator Ed Gainey won a huge upset in Pittsburgh’s May mayoral primary. Now he has a Republican challenger in the general. He’s strongly favored to win, but it will be notable to see how many votes the Republican challenger will peel off (as a barometer of white backlash).
Buffalo, New York: Mayor
Progressive mayoral candidate India Walton won a huge upset in the Democratic primary but faces a very well-funded machine incumbent running as a write-in. Our partners in New York State are working hard to get Walton’s campaign to parity in New York’s second-largest city. We are also interested in upstate New York generally to target new competitive House districts post-redistricting.
St. Petersburg, Florida: Mayor
St. Petersburg is likely to elect its first Black mayor, Ken Welch. Welch is progressive, has worked with our partner groups in the past, and is polling well ahead of his Republican opponent. There are also city council races in St. Petersburg, Miami, and Orlando (and in smaller cities like Lakeland) where MVP grassroots partners are engaged as they prepare for a multi-pronged Battle Royale in 2022. Florida is a tough state, but we haven’t given up on it! And in what has been one of the worst years for LGBTQ+ justice, Equality Florida is preparing for the upcoming legislative pre-session. They’re hiring an additional organizer specifically to help defeat five anti-LGBTQ+ bills, ranging from medical bans to prison sentences for doctors who aid in gender-affirming procedures.
Orleans Parish, Louisiana: Sheriff
This election was delayed to November 13th due to Hurricane Ida. Can they kick out a bad incumbent sheriff in the midst of a recovery? Looks tough but winnable. Louisiana also has the only Democratic governor in the deep south, who will be up in 2023.
There are SO many local races across the country this Tuesday, from Boston to Cincinnati. MVP focuses most of our energy in battleground states that we need to win in 2022 and 2024. But we’re interested to hear about local races our readers are watching and other critical opportunities you see going into 2022 — feel free to reply to this email and let us know!
Starting next Wednesday will be the midterm election season. I will start working on early Trifecta State briefs soon. Expect those early in 2022. There is a lot of things to discuss about the redistricting process in the states. We will get into that soon.
Virginia is not a big early vote state, aside from the aberration of 2020. Voters are not getting mail-in ballots automatically sent to them. This are two reasons why some observers believe more Democrats will vote in person on Election Day than we expected – and observed – in the recent California election. However, almost a million Virginians have voted early compared to less than 200,000 in the last gubernatorial election (2017). Like most things in politics, the conventional wisdom is true until one day it just isn’t.
While Virginia may be a reliable Democratic state in presidential elections these days, its state elections (although favoring Democrats lately) are more complicated. Most observers now consider Virginia a blue state – although I don’t yet agree, but I am getting there. This is why I say that a McAuliffe victory “may” send a message about purple states. It will confirm that message for blue states.
On Monday, Trump is holding a “tele-rally” for Youngkin, whatever that is. One thing the timing suggests is that even Trump is aware that his involvement in this race is likely toxic to Virginia voters. Doing this on the eve of the election lessens the chance of blowback among Independents from whatever batshit crazy nonsense Trump drifts off into. Or even worse, he tells GOP voters to stay home, which seems to be his latest tactic in his Big Lie strategy. If this were not a concern, the best time for a last-minute rally would have been today or tomorrow so the campaign can use it to motivate volunteers and voters over the final four days of the campaign..