Polling on Next Week's UK and French Elections
June 28, 2024
As we head into first round of the French election on Sunday, the polling shows the neo-fascist National Rally (RN) with 35% of the vote. This has been the headline in this election ever since RN finished a strong first place in the recent European Parliament election. What is also notable about this election, but is not being reported as strongly, is the strength of the New Popular Front (NPF) – a decidedly anti-fascist coalition of parties led by the Socialists. The latest polling shows them getting 28% of the vote. In third place is President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble coalition (ENS) with 20%.
If these numbers hold through both rounds of voting, RN will be out of government despite finishing first. It is more likely that NFP and ENS will form a government than either would enter into a coalition with RN. At the moment, there are no small right-wing parties that have enough support to give RN a majority (the largest of these is to the right of RN). Even the former powerhouse Republicans, a center-right party, are only mustering six percent in the polls. But despite their leader endorsing RN, the Republicans won’t work with RN either – in fact, the party booted the leader out after he endorsed.
How does this work? In the first round, any candidate who wins over 50% of the vote wins outright. This is unusual, but it does happen. If no one gets over 50%, then everyone with less than 12.5% support is dropped. Often we see other candidates drop out to help a stronger candidate from an allied party win. The second round is similar to the run-off elections we have in the US, except there can be more than two candidates. The second round will be held on Sunday July 7.
While we are in between rounds of the French election, the United Kingdom will be holding their own general election. In the UK, there is just one election. It is a first-past-the-post style election similar to the US, but the UK has stronger minor parties that can compete with the two major parties. The UK election is more consequential than the French election because of their different political systems. The UK is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy and France is a semi-presidential republic. If not for the monarch as head of state with ceremonial powers, the UK would be a parliamentary republic like a number of other countries.1 In the UK the executive is subject to the legislature – the Prime Minister is typically the leader of the largest party in the parliament and forms the government. France has an elected president who controls foreign policy, defense policy, and appoints the Prime Minister, who controls domestic policy and economic policy. The executive in France is not subject to the legislature, although a no-confidence vote in the Prime Minister can force new elections. Sunday’s election in France is for the legislature only. Next week’s election in the UK is also technically for the legislature, but since the legislature controls the executive, it is also an election for the executive leadership.
The politics in the UK are trending in a different direction that in France. While the far right is surging in France, conservatives in the UK are about to be routed in what may be historic proportions. The current polling shows the ruling Conservative Party (Tories) losing to Labour by 21 points. Labour’s support has dipped somewhat as the election has approached, but currently are at 41%. The Reform Party, which has been called UKIP and Brexit Party in recent elections, has peeled off some of Tory support and is close behind them with 16%. The usual third place party, the Liberal Democrats (LD), are at 11%. It is possible that either Reform or LD could overtake the Tories and become the official opposition. However, it seems nearly impossible that there will not be a Labour government after the July 4 election.
I will be in London for all three of these elections next week, and I will write on what’s going on from that perch.
As far as US politics is concerned, today is a huge news day. The Supreme Court has upended the administrative state in a way right wingers have dreamed about for decades. I am going to read the case on the plane and discuss it later this summer when I get a chance to digest its ramifications. And of course, there was a presidential debate last night. I am no fan of political debates. They are largely a waste of everyone’s time – including the candidates. However, there are moments that stick with voters. They are usually when something happens that reinforces a negative narrative about a candidate. That seems to have happened last night. I am not going to say any more about it until we see some polling 7-10 days out from now, or unless something big happens in reaction to it.
The basic definition of “republic” is a government that is not a monarchy. Even though the monarchy is (largely) ceremonial in the UK, the state cannot be a republic as long as it maintains it.