Here are some takeaways from today’s post:
Democratic candidates are polling better than Biden; the president’s low approval ratings do not appear to be dragging down Senate and House Democratic candidates.
Looking at district-level polling, the race for the House is much closer than projections suggest (GOP +7 rather than GOP +20).
The race for the Senate is clearly going well for Democrats, but be wary of those states in which Democratic candidates lead, but fail to poll at least 50%.
Up until recently, Democrats were stuck in a doom loop. That defeatism threatened to become a self-fulfilling prophecy. What activist, donor, or voter wants to sign up for a suicide mission? And to be honest, it’s been hard to make a reasonable, fact-based case that Democrats could upend the historical trends. However, over the last few weeks, the worm has turned. Democrats now have a legitimate shot to outpace expectations dramatically.
I am not devolving into a sunny guy. This is not a prediction. It is not an admonition against bedwetting. I think the odds are still against Democrats. We have an eternity till Election Day. The future looked quite dire three weeks ago, and may look just as dire in three weeks. But as we sit here today, one can make a credible bull case for Democrats.
Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box, August 9, 2022
In November 2021, Republicans overtook Democrats in the polling average for the generic ballot. On August 4th, Democrats took back the lead. This should be an important thing for the media to note, but it still sees Democrats as being wiped out in this year’s elections. While that could happen, the polling is not exactly in sync with that yet.
The most important factor in claims that Democrats will lose – and perhaps lose big – in the midterms is Biden’s approval rating. Here’s what we know:
Biden has near-historically low approval ratings for a president in his first term.
Democrats, particularly in Senate races, are outpolling Biden.
In the last two months, the things that have been blamed on Biden – inflation and failure to enact his policy agenda – have turned around. Inflation is coming down and just recently Biden has had a string of impressive legislative victories, most with bipartisan support.
The Republicans have made an impressive series of errors, or at least miscalculations. Their Supreme Court (it is fair at this point to it “theirs”) has overturned Roe v Wade, invalidated a state law restricting the carrying of concealed weapons (and right in the wake of a horrific school shooting), made it difficult for the federal government to regulate climate change, and accepted a case that will allow the right wingers on the Court to make the insane “independent state legislature” theory the law of the land (which will let state legislatures pick the winners of any election without any oversight from the courts).
The Kansas primary last week suggests a looming problem for Republicans. In a very conservative and Christian electorate, nearly 60% of voters decide to uphold the right to an abortion in their state constitution. And, in an election with no important or contested Democratic races, turnout was high. Both of those factors are problematic for Republicans this fall.
Democrats are passing Republicans on the generic ballot polling1, but this measure cannot tell us who will win the House. The generic ballot gives us a sense of which way the wind is blowing, but there have been plenty of times one party led in the generic ballot, but did not win the House. In any case, the turn from a Democratic lead to a GOP lead last November did tell us that the momentum was shifting in favor of the Republicans. And the recent switch back towards Democrats tells us something similar (although we need some more time to see if it’s real).
The analysts making projections that Republicans will pick up about 20 or 30 seats in the House are largely not relying on polling evidence at this point (outside of incorporating the generic ballot into their calculations). They are more focused on Biden’s low approval rating and the impact of inflation. In other words, they are looking at the “fundamentals” – the non-polling data that is often correlated with certain electoral outcomes. It is important to note that correlation is not causation and politics is not physics. If you are following the news this summer – and especially in the past week or two – you’ll see that events that shape elections can change quickly.
The conventional wisdom in politics is only as good as the last election. When things change, pundits almost never see it. However, serious analysts can – which is why we should not dismiss the projections for a GOP victory from folks like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and The Crystal Ball. And right now, all three of those analysts are projecting Republicans to win the House by double-digits.
That said, there is reason grounded in polling data for Democrats to be optimistic. According to Inside Elections, the district-level polling right now shows Democrats doing much better than even Inside Elections’ projections have them doing. IE reports that on the district-level polling, the race for the House looks more like the Republicans picking up seven seats (rather than the 20-30 their projections have the party picking up). They need four to gain the majority. Every single House race matters this year. Every single one of them.
Democrats are in a better position in the race for the Senate. While many commenters are arguing that the race is even or that the GOP has a slight advantage, the polling suggests the Democrats could pick up and additional 2-4 seats. There is a significant “but” here that you need to be aware of: most of the Democratic candidates – even the ones up by double-digit margins – are not polling 50%. We have seen – especially in presidential elections – that this is a warning sign, that the balance of voters who are undecided may go for the Republican candidate at the end of the day. That said, a few of these Democratic candidates are continually inching towards 50% with each round of polling.
Here's a snapshot of the polling in the races that may determine control of the Senate this year:
Battleground Senate Races with 538 Polling Averages right now:
North Carolina (Open seat, currently held by GOP): Budd (R) +0.3 – latest polling is very close.
Nevada (Dem incumbent): Cortez Masto (D) +1.5 – latest polling favors Cortez Masto, suggests she is opening the gap.
Georgia (Dem incumbent): Warnock (D) +2.7 – latest polling favors Warnock, suggest slight widening of lead.
Ohio (Open seat, currently held by GOP): Ryan (D) +3.9 – latest polling shows Ryan widening his lead (and approaching 50%).
Arizona (Dem incumbent): Kelly (D) +10.2 – latest polling shows Kelly hitting 50% and slightly widening his lead.
Pennsylvania (Open seat, currently held by GOP): Fetterman (D) +10.8 – latest polling shows Fetterman hitting 50% and widening his lead.
Battleground Senate Races that do NOT have 538 Polling Averages right now:
New Hampshire (Dem incumbent): Hassan (D) seems to have a small, but clear lead. Warning sign is that she is not hitting 50% in some surveys. As an incumbent, that can suggest a problem for reelection.
Wisconsin (GOP incumbent): Not much polling, but the incumbent (Johnson (R)) is not getting above 43-44% of the vote, which means he’s in trouble. This race should be close and we should be getting more polling soon as the Democrats have finally settled on a candidate (Barnes).
Florida (GOP incumbent): Rubio (R) has had a consistent lead, but the polling suggests it’s getting close. Last reported poll had the race even at 45% for Rubio and Demings (D).
Missouri (Open seat, currently held by GOP): You may be surprised to see the Show Me State on this list, as it has turned very red over the last few election cycles. However, there is an independent candidate in the race that threatens to siphon votes from the GOP nominee. This candidate is polling as high as 10%, but Democratic candidates are still down against Republican candidates. (There has been no polling I’ve seen since the August 2nd primary. Schmitt won the GOP nomination and Busch Valentine won the Democratic nomination.)
We are less than 100 days to the November 8th election, and many states will start early and mail-in voting much sooner. I’ve been on a bit of a hiatus for most of the summer, doing some traveling and visiting with me awesome kid in New York. I’m back now and you’ll be hearing a lot more from me - from now until possibly early December if there is a runoff in the Georgia Senate or Governor races.
The generic ballot is a question in which pollsters ask survey respondents if they would prefer a generic Democrat or a generic Republican for Congress. Some pollsters ask if respondents would prefer Democrats or Republicans to win the House.