This is our first Target State Report1 of the 2022 election cycle. You can skip to the end to find ways to get involved, but I encourage you to read the whole report. Reports for Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin will follow over the next couple of weeks.
Source: FiveThirtyEight.
Arizona is an important battleground state for the third election in a row. This is largely thanks to over a decade of organizing work by labor and community groups. A little demographic change helped as well. The Grand Canyon State is not a blue state yet; the state government is run not just by Republicans, but by the worst of them. They have tried to enact just about every voter suppression law they can get their hands on, and played a central role in the Trump scheme to overthrow the Republic through corrupting the Electoral College process. In 2022 once again Arizona is one of the most important states in which you can make an impact as a volunteer or donor.
Senate
U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is running for re-election.
Inside Elections rating: Toss-up
Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up
Kelly (D) was elected in 2020 to serve the remainder of the late Sen. John McCain’s (R) term. Now, he must run for a full six-year term. Republicans nominated far-right Blake Masters, who is financially supported by “libertarian” billionaire Peter Thiel. Masters not only opposes abortion rights, but opposes contraception rights and marriage equality. He is an advocate of the “white replacement theory,” a white supremacist conspiracy theory, and he has been a vocal supporter of The Big Lie (i.e., he amplifies Trump’s lies about voter fraud and election conspiracies from the 2020 election). And as if that isn’t enough, there is one thing that should tell you everything you need to know about Masters: he’s big advocate for cryptocurrency. The contrast with Kelly could not be clearer for voters. But we have seen in the past that voters sometimes pretend these kind of differences don’t exist when they want to “send a message” or make some other self-defeating statement.
There has only been one reported poll since the August 2nd primary, Momentive/Survey Monkey (C) released a poll last week (commissioned by the“nonpartisan” Center Street PAC) that has Kelly beating Masters among likely voters 54-40 (Kelly +14). Kelly’s lead increases among registered voters. Before the primary, Kelly was ahead of Masters in head-to-heads. But it depends on the pollster for how big a lead it was. Two different partisan Republican polls (including one by Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio [B/C]) had Kelly’s lead at +5. Beacon Research (B/C) had a pre-primary poll that had Kelly up by 12 with likely voters against Masters. We should see more polling in this race - probably from better rated pollsters - over the next few weeks.
Why are all three analysts calling this race a toss-up? They are relying on the fundamentals of the Arizona and national political environments, not the limited polling currently available. If a few highly-rated pollsters confirm Momentive’s findings, these analysts will likely move their ratings toward Kelly.
House Races
Two Democratic seats are in jeopardy in Arizona, AZ-02 and AZ-06. One Republican seat is in jeopardy, AZ-01. And one other Democratic seat could be competitive, AZ-04.
Source: Wikipedia. Map created using adopted Arizona redistricting data. I compared it with the official map, and this is accurate. I am using this rather than the official map because this map has more information on it.
PRIORITY
AZ-06 Open. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) is retiring. (Redistricted from the old AZ-02.)2 Kirkpatrick’s seat was Biden +11 in 2020, but has been redistricting to be Biden +0.1 Trump won this new district configuration in 2016 by over five points. This will make the race very competitive in 2022. Democrats have nominated state Sen. Kirsten Engel and Republicans have nominated former gubernatorial aide and Hispanic Chamber of Commerce official Juan Ciscomani, who defeated Kirkpatrick’s 2020 opponent (a nutter running under the slogan “Let’s Go Brandon”). Ciscomani is a real threat to take this district. If he had lost to the Brandon candidate, this seat would likely go to Engel (fairly) easily.
IE rating: Lean Republican
CPR rating: Lean Republican
Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican3
Geography (major cities, counties, etc.): Tucson
PVI: R+34
PRIORITY
AZ-02 Rep. Tom O’Halloran (D), whose district was the old AZ-01, is running for re-election. The current district went for Trump +8 in 2020 and Trump +10 in 2016.
IE rating: Tilt Republican
CPR rating: Likely Republican
Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican
Geography (major cities, counties, etc.): Flagstaff; Navajo country (Native Americans comprise over 21% of the population in the district). The district goes south and wraps around Phoenix to the east and west, capturing Republican-rich exurban areas.
PVI: R+6
PICK-UP OPPORTUNITY
AZ-01 Rep. David Schweikert (R) is running for re-election. (Redistricted from old AZ-06). Jevin Hodge is the Democratic candidate. Schweikert was reprimanded by the House Ethics Committee and fined $50,000 for campaign finance violations. Even though he was outspent in the primary, he won – likely because Trump endorsed him and (more likely because) a QAnon fascist took 23% of the vote. Schweikert won the old AZ-06 in 2020 with 51% of the vote. While he should win this seat, it is by no means a sure thing. In fact, this district went for Biden by +1 (it went for Trump +2 in 2016). Hodge, who runs a HeadStart center, has a shot here.
IE rating: Lean Republican
CPR rating: Lean Republican
Crystal Ball rating: Leans Republican
Geography (major cities, counties, etc.): Scottsdale
PVI: R+2
RACE COULD TIGHTEN
AZ-04 Greg Stanton (D) is running for reelection. The current configuration of this district voted Biden +10 in 2020. Republicans nominated a Big Lie candidate over a candidate who would have had a better chance in the general election. Stanton should win this seat, but if Republicans have a big night in November this seat could be in trouble. Don’t sleep on it.
IE rating: Likely Democratic
CPR rating: Lean Democrat (from Likely Democrat; movement is in the wrong direction making this a seat to watch)
Crystal Ball rating: Leans Democratic
Geography (major cities, counties, etc.): Tempe; Mesa
PVI: D+2
Governor
Open. Gov. David Ducey (R) is term-limited from seeking a third term.
Inside Elections rating: Toss-up
Cook Political Report rating: Toss-up
Crystal Ball rating: Toss-up
Secretary of State Katie Hobbs won the Democratic nomination earlier this month. She will face Trump-endorsed nutter Kari Lake (R). There has been no reported polling since the primary. However, polling in July had Hobbs beating Lake by 5-9 points. Pre-primary polling showed Lake to be the worst candidate the Republicans could have nominated against Hobbs. Arizona Republicans are among the most cultish of Republican voters these days, ensuring that a Trump-endorsed candidate – no matter how poor a general election candidate she is – would win. In fact, Trump-endorsed candidates won every major statewide GOP nomination in Arizona this year.
Secretary of State
The current Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs (D), is the Democratic nominee for Governor this year. As a result, the seat is open. Republicans have nominated a Big Lie candidate, state Rep. Mark Finchem. The former county recorder for Mariposa County, Adrian Fontes, is the Democratic nominee. We cannot avoid such down-ballot races anymore. The Secretary of State oversees elections in Arizona. Arizona Republicans, including Finchem, are working hard to suppress voters, gerrymander themselves into perpetual majorities, and come up with a way for the state legislature to overrule the vote of the people in presidential elections. Fontes must win this seat.
Attorney General
Matching the pattern of the other Arizona contests, Republicans nominated a conspiracy theorist Trump-endorsed candidate for Attorney General. The seat is open because the current AG, Mark Brnovich, lost the Republican nomination for governor. Brnovich used the AG’s office to defend the blatant voter suppression laws that the right-wing legislature passed after the 2020 election.
The Republican candidate, Abraham Hamadeh, is campaigning to get “the left” out of public life. This is a recurring theme in Arizona GOP politics this year. No matter what office they are running for, they all appear to be promising to go after their enemies on the left, whoever they are. This strongly suggests that Hamadeh will use the office of the Attorney General in a partisan way to undermine elections (as Finchem is seemingly promising to do with the Secretary of State’s office).
The Democratic candidate for Attorney General is law professor and former Arizona Corporation Commission member Kris Mayes. The Corporation Commission, an independently elected body that falls under the purview of the Secretary of State, regulates utilities and corporate registration in the Grand Canyon State. Mayes is promising to support and defend voting rights as Attorney General.
Get involved!
Volunteer in person with: Arizona Wins. I worked with Arizona Wins doing GOTV work in 2018 and 2020. This is an amazing organization that works closely with unions and community groups to turn out hundreds of canvassers during elections season.
Volunteer remotely with: Together We Elect. If you are interested in volunteering remotely, TWE can hook you up with phone banking and other activities.
Support organizing groups with: Movement Voter Project’s Arizona page provides a list of organizing groups that you can donate to or volunteer with. But if you are coming to Arizona to volunteer on midterms GOTV, I recommend contacting Arizona Wins for that. Make sure use the link here for Arizona Wins as the one on MVP’s page is out of date. The other groups on this page are deserving of your support. If you decide to focus on Arizona and are able to donate, please send some money to these organizing groups.
Donate to candidates: You can donate to each candidate by clicking their names above (each Democratic candidate is hyperlinked the first time their name appears).
Formerly known as the Trifecta Brief.
This is confusing because some analysts have listed her open seat as the 2nd, but it is the 6th now after redistricting.
I use the terminology the analysts use; there are some slight differences in the way they phrase their categories, such as “Leans” versus “Lean.” Also, IE uses a “Tilt” category that is between “Toss-up” and “Lean.”