Trifecta Adjustment: Pennsylvania Looks to Be Close All Around
September 5, 2024
In the past week, I have started to rethink excluding Pennsylvania from my “true” trifecta states. It is starting to look like Pennsylvania might be closer in both presidential and Senate races than Michigan - which will still be close; I am not taking Michigan off the list. In fact, the most important House district for impact purposes may be MI-07, which is the district Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) is giving up to run for Senate. It is a seat Democrats need to hold. The district went for Trump by five points in 2020, and Republicans consider it their best pick-up opportunity.
Because this election is not only close, but fluid, my suggestions for where you should consider focusing your time and resources may change as well. In fact, they already have. There are clearly three trifecta states now where earlier I wasn’t sure there was even one. They are Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. My initial thinking was that Michigan was going to be the tipping point state, but right now it appears that Pennsylvania is. Each of these states now has two Toss-Up House races and all have important Senate races in which the Democratic margin is not as big I was hoping it would be by now. In all three, the Democratic candidates are leading – and in my opinion should be favored (I would rate these as no worse than Lean Democratic – Cook rates Michigan as a Toss-Up but otherwise we are in agreement here). However, the margins are still in the single digits. In Arizona, Trump continues to lead in the polling which could pull down Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D) vote margin in the Senate race. Michigan’s seat is open, which already makes it competitive in a state that has a history of electing members of both parties to statewide office.
I am in Philadelphia as I write this post. Earlier this week I met with some of Harris’s campaign staff. They definitely see Pennsylvania not only as very important, but as very close. If you are wondering whether it makes sense to help on the ground in a battleground state, I can confirm for you that you are very much needed and welcome. While it is possible to max out on volunteers to knock doors and make phone calls - I have seen it happen many times - there is a real need for poll observers this year. So, if you cannot find an opportunity to work in a field capacity ask the campaign to talk to the voter protection folks. They should be the ones in your state who are organizing and managing the poll observation work. Some states have restrictions on who can do certain things (for instance, Pennsylvania only allows registered voters who live in the county to be inside-the-polling-place observers). In addition to observing the polls, there is a need for folks to help observe the vote count. So, there may be plenty of work for you even if field slots are taken up already.
If you can travel to volunteer, I think you should prioritize these states:
Arizona, particularly AZ-01 and AZ-06
Michigan, particularly MI-07 and MI-08
Pennsylvania, particularly PA-07 and PA-08
If you are particularly concerned about voter protection, Georgia1 is another state to consider2
Now let’s take a look at the latest national polling. In the past week, Harris’s lead as narrowed slightly thanks to smaller leads (or deficits) by lesser known and lower quality pollsters. As you can see from the chart below, most of the polling by quality pollsters in the past week has Harris up by at least four points. Emerson just released a poll today that has the Vice President up by four points, but that is down one point from their last poll. Fabrizio has her up by just one point in a recent poll, which may give you pause until you learn that he is Trump’s pollster. But, to be fair, he knows what he is doing so don’t take him too lightly.
Source: New York Times Poll Tracker
The battleground polling is much closer. There is good news and bad news. The bad news is that in the last week a lot of battleground state polling has moved in Trump’s direction, although Harris remains in the lead in most. The good news is that the Trump campaign has acknowledged that New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Virginia are states they are not likely to be competitive in and have moved their strategy to focus on the Blue Wall states and Sun Belt states.
Pennsylvania is rapidly becoming everyone’s tipping point state. That is, it is the state that is expected to be the one that gets a candidate to 270 electoral votes. The way it looks right now is that if Harris loses Pennsylvania, she probably cannot win, but that even the Trump campaign seems to agree they cannot win without it. If Trump can win Pennsylvania, Georgia, ME-02, and North Carolina, he will get 270 electoral votes. However, if Harris wins Pennsylvania (and the rest of the Blue Wall) plus NE-02, she will get 270 electoral votes. Although Wisconsin and Michigan are still close, Harris seems to be in the lead there consistently while Pennsylvania is even.
The vibe - I can’t really explain it any other way yet - that I get right now is that both Trump and Harris campaigns think that Pennsylvania may go to Trump even if the rest of the Blue Wall goes to Harris. As I have noted before, it is unlikely that these states will not all vote the same way. But, in politics things are true until they are not. Obama won Ohio and Iowa. Back then, Ohio was a legitimate swing state and Iowa was a fairly reliable Democratic state. Today, they are solid Republican. Nothing in politics is forever.
My next post3 will offer some new tools for you to use to maximize your donation impacts. One of these tools can also help you figure out where to best volunteer your time as well. It might put my trifecta states recommendations out of business. Whatever works - organize, mobilize, and vote!
While Georgia is a battleground state for president, there is no Senate race there this year (so it is not a trifecta state).
Georgia is ground-zero for a Republican attempt to subvert the election through denying certification. See here. Elias has sued the Georgia State Election Board on behalf of a number of plaintiffs this week to prevent their new rules from going into effect. They have a solid legal argument, but I am not sure this means as much as it used to.
With my usual caveat: unless something else more important happens first. This post is mostly written, so I think it will be the next one.