Trump is Losing: Where the Polling Stands at the Close of the DNC

August 23, 2024

Trump needs someone to tell him the truth: He’s losing.

Bernard Goldberg, The Hill

Things have really changed in a month. When the Republican National Convention ended in July, Trump and his supporters were convinced they were going to win a landslide victory in November. The polling was getting really bad for Biden, there were reasons to believe states like New Mexico, Virginia, and Minnesota might now be in play for Trump (who also thought the same for New Jersey), and internal polling in House districts was starting to look very concerning for Democrats. The Friday after the RNC concluded, Trump thought the election was over. Then 48 hours later the entire race changed.

It may be hard for some to believe how quickly things have turned around. In fact, most pundits are steadfast in saying the election is a toss-up right now. However, the polling simply does not bear that out. Harris is winning now, her leads are consistent in most places, and the polls keep getting better for her. Trump, meanwhile, is desperately throwing feces on the wall to see what sticks. Nothing seems to right now. He also seems prepared to declare he has already won in an effort to discredit the election results.

I don’t find the turnaround so hard to believe. Voters were not really preferring Trump to Biden; they didn’t want either to vote for either. As one Republican pollster said, the first one to discard their octogenarian wins. The hypothetical matchups in the polling before Biden withdrew were just that, hypotheticals. That kind of polling is not very helpful when there is already an actual candidate running. Democrats could have botched this, of course, but they didn’t. That isn’t really as surprising as people say it is. “Democrats in disarray” is really a legacy of the 1970s and 1980s.

By all accounts, Democrats pulled off a very successful convention this week. We should expect to see some bump in her support as a result. Will it last? Only time will tell, but there is only one week left before the official opening of election season on Labor Day. That’s when everyone agrees the polls really start to matter. I think the polls matter now for a couple of reasons: the summer ends in mid-August for a lot of people now because school schedules have changed in the past decade or more and early voting starts in some states in September. The election itself – not the campaign – begins in about a month. But even if I am wrong there is not much time for any convention bump for Harris to wane before attention ramps up again.

There is a lot of new polling out this week – and it is good for Harris. Here’s a chart of this week’s polling the Blue Wall states:

While she is not winning in every survey, she seems to be in good shape in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Pennsylvania seems a little more in flux. The New York Times polling average has Pennsylvania even and Harris +2 in both Michigan and Wisconsin. The only one of these surveys that was in the field during the DNC was Activote in Pennsylvania (Harris +2).

On the national polling front:

Every polling average as of this morning has Harris in the lead. You’ll notice I included Real Clear Politics this time. I usually ignore their polling averages because they include low-quality pollsters (like Rasmussen, who just came out with a poll that has Trump up by three points) without any weighting for quality or time. It’s a very simple average that gives equal weight to lousy and outstanding pollsters. However, I included it this time to underscore the point: even RCP has Harris winning.

What’s interesting in the latest polls is what we are seeing in other states. There are two polls out this week that have Trump up by just five points in Texas. The Florida polling bounces a little, but the 538 average for the state is Trump +4.1. The polling in North Carolina is even or slightly favoring Harris (see graphic below). Excluding Ohio, these are the three biggest Republican states from an electoral vote perspective. And some forecasters have even downgraded Ohio from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Texas and Florida represent 70 electoral votes. The three states together are about equal to the electoral vote total for California and New York, the Democrats’ two biggest states.

Source: 538

The polling in the big Democratic states is solid for Harris. She is winning by big margins everywhere except Virginia and Washington state, which are closer – but they are always closer, yet safe Democratic big states now. Trump, on the other hand, is facing tight races in states he simply cannot lose. There is no plausible path to victory for Trump without Texas and Florida. Perhaps he could lose North Carolina and carve a path, but I don’t see how. The Democratic Senate candidates in Texas and Florida are both within striking distance of the Republican incumbents in those states. The latest Texas poll shows Allred, the Democratic candidate, three points behind Cruz! The Florida Senate race has the same margin in the latest polling.

This is not to say that Texas and Florida are plausible Democratic pick-ups this year. Of the two, I would guess Florida is more likely to vote Democratic in either the presidential or Senate contests, but I still wouldn’t put any money on that just yet. What this does mean, however, is that Republicans have to put more resources into those states than they should. Harris does not have this problem. Her safe states are safe. Even Virginia and New Mexico, which Trump was planning to pick up on the eve of Biden’s withdrawal. Trump continues to lead in Arizona and Georgia, which is good news for him – but at least in Georgia, it is no longer a slam dunk (see graphic below). He will have to put serious time and resources in both states to win.

Source: 538

There is other good news for Harris in the polling. University of New Hampshire has Maine at Harris +31. That’s a pretty big margin for that state, but it is not newsworthy itself. What is important is that Harris is up by five points in ME-02. Remember that Maine and Nebraska award one electoral vote to the winner of each Congressional District. Maine’s Second went for Trump in 2016 and 2020. It is represented in the House by Rep. Jared Golden (D), and Republicans are hoping to pick up that seat. In a very close election, this electoral vote is important. There is a similar district in Nebraska that Democrats hope to win, NE-02. A recent poll has Harris up by eight points there. If Harris can win both districts, one path to victory for Trump is foreclosed.

Some Republicans are hot on the idea of Trump winning Georgia and Pennsylvania as the way to win. The thinking is odd at first blush. As I have noted before, due to American political and cultural tendencies it is unlikely that either candidate will win only one of the Blue Wall states. It is more likely one will win all three or none. Now, things can change fast in politics and this is no guarantee. However, I have seen nothing thus far in the polling that would suggest something very different is happening in Pennsylvania that would change this. The reason I raise this is because if Trump wins the Blue Wall states he does not need to win Georgia (he probably will in this scenario, but that’s not the point), so why the focus on both states? It’s because if Trump can just win those two states and Harris wins all the rest of Biden’s states, Trump wins 270-268. But that only works if he wins ME-02. However, in this scenario with ME-02 going to Harris the election would be tied and thrown to the House.¹ The problem with these scenarios is that they only really work on paper. ME-02 going for Harris will signal that her campaign is likely to win Pennsylvania. And, if that happens, this seemingly-clever Trump strategy blows up.

As it stands today, the election is trending in Harris’ direction. It is close, that’s for sure, but Harris has the advantage right now. And that advantage is not just in the battleground states, but in what should be safe Republican states. Trump cannot afford to lose Texas and Florida, and ignoring this is the kind of thing that creates surprises on election day. Texas has been trending Democratic in presidential election for years and Florida was a genuine swing state before 2016 and could be again. Trump has to win Georgia and North Carolina as well, and Harris is close or even with him in both. Harris is the one who has the potential to expand the map now, although the smart thing to do is focus on winning. This is something Trump is not doing right now. Bernard Goldberg is right; someone should tell Trump he is losing.

1. There are indications that Trump wants the election decided by the House. This will be the topic of a future post.