UK Election: Boris Johnson Enters the Fray to Stop Labour from Getting a Supermajority, But it May Be Too Late
July 3, 2024
London, Wednesday afternoon, July 3, 2024. I had thought I might write about the French election today, but there was too much going on in the UK as the campaign is on its last day. There is a press blackout tomorrow until the polls close, so I will probably write about France while the UK votes. I hope to visit some polling stations as well and stop by my friend Nky’s restaurant for a delicious Nigerian lunch. I know things are going off the rails in the US this week and I probably cannot ignore it much longer. So, do not be surprised if you see a second post from me today about that. It’s cool and rainy here in London with some occasional sunshine. I hope your July 4th is warm and sunny!
Labour leader Keir Starmer is going to hit all four UK nations today. As part of ensuring an expansive Labour majority, he started out this morning in Scotland where as many as 30 constituencies are up for grabs. Labour was wiped out there by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the last election, but historically this is Labour territory. While the SNP will remain opposed to Labour in the Scottish Parliament where the Tories and Reform have almost no presence, they will likely be allied - although not in partnership - in the UK Parliament.
Yesterday, Starmer was in the Home Counties where polling showed that there are a number of marginal seats1 in this historically Tory stronghold. Tory PM Rishi Sunak remains campaigning there - specifically in the southeast of London - in an effort to stem the bleeding. Late last night, former Tory PM Boris Johnson - who blames Sunak for helping force him out in 2022 - spoke at a Conservative rally in Chelsea. While it has been framed as Sunak’s work, there have been a lot of whispers here that Johnson is looking to make a comeback, and rescuing the Tories from the dustbin of history might be what he is thinking. Johnson and Sunak did not appear together on stage or shake hands; there is obviously still bad blood there. Johnson made the usual scare claims about a Labour government. Red meat for the base, but nothing that will likely persuade anyone else.
The Guardian reports that Sunak is worried he will lose his own seat in Yorkshire. Apparently, party resources - people and pounds - have been diverted to save him from an embarrassing loss - no incumbent PM has ever lost their seat in a British election. But that’s not all. Resources have been diverted to save several cabinet ministers as well. While it is certainly plausible that several members of Sunak’s government will lose their elections - and that’s only happened 12 times before - the latest polling2 I have seen from his district shows him beating his Labour opponent by nine points (giving Sunak a 99% chance of winning at this point).
Like the Lib Dems’ Ed Davey, Starmer is now caught up in the expectations game. The polling projections thus far have made it look like Labour is in line for an historic rout of the Conservatives with a supermajority.3 The reporting here this morning is that the polling may be tightening in some places and that the Tory message of warning of a Labour supermajority is working in more conservative constituencies. In fact, a new Survation poll released last night shows Labour at 38%, Conservatives at 18%, and Reform at 17%. This represents a three-point drop for Labour and increases for the Tories and Reform. It also shows the Tories losing 17 constituencies in Greater London (just three from the current 20 seats). Even with this tightening, it would be a larger Labour victory than when Tony Blair first lead the party back to government in 1997.
Unless both public and internal campaign polling is way off, Labour will easily have a majority of at least the 66-seat magin that Blair got in his third and last election. However, a double-digit margin would appear as an underperformance for Starmer. As Sam Coates and Jack Blanchard note, Starmer is not very popular with the public - or with his party - and beginning with a perceived underperformance could get him off to a very rocky start on Friday.4 Politics can be strange; one can lose by winning. Starmer is hoping to jump on a big victory to quickly organize his government and pass legislation the party promised. He recognizes that he is not very popular, so he wants to make sure he hits the ground running and makes good on the Labour manifesto. Intra-party squabbling about missed opportunities will not help. He needs a united Labour on Friday.
There is nothing unusual about a campaign tightening as the election date grows closer. We see that happen in the US all the time. There doesnappear to be a phenomenon here where a number of voters do not make their decision until they are actually in the voting booth.5 I have no reason to doubt that is the case, but it is probably being exaggerated to suggest “anything could happen” by a media that is getting bored of reporting that Labour is going to win big. There will be voters making last minute decisions, but I don’t see how that will change the overall dynamics of this election.
The Tory message about Labour is not designed so much as to get voters to change their minds from red to blue, but to get Reform voters to come back home to the Conservatives. This is likely one reason Johnson spoke last night. After all, Johnson is the “architect” of Tory failure, as Starmer referred to him on television this morning. It’s not likely Johnson is going to appeal to voters who are rejecting Conservative rule. However, as previously reported, the polling shows one in five voters who voted Tory in 2019 supporting Reform in this election. Johnson, as the party’s leader in 2019, is appealing to those voters to reject Farage and come back to the Tories not just to prevent a Labour supermajority, but because of how dangerous Farage is. Farage is not just dangerous to the public and to democracy, he threatens the Conservative Party itself. Johnson wants to lead the Tories back against Labour not fight with neo-fascists for political relevance.
It does appear that there will be a lot of finger-pointing come Friday morning not just among the Tories, but between them and Reform. While the Survation poll has the Conservatives barely in second place in front of Reform (18%-17%) in terms of vote total, Reform has little chance of picking up many seats. The Survation seat projection shows the Lib Dems in third place (61 seats) with Reform in fifth place (7 seats) behind the SNP (10 seats). The Tories, who reportedly believe they will win seats in triple digits, are slated to barely edge out the Lib Dems for second with 64 seats, well behind Labour’s 484.
Reform’s support is not concentrated enough in all but a handful of constituencies, and that is because those voters are largely right wing or disaffected Tories. Farage is going to complain that the system is rigged - count on it - because his party will likely finish with more votes than at least one and possibly two parties who will get more seats in Parliament. The UK uses an electoral system more like the US with geography-based constituencies. In Germany (and Scotland) the legislature is composed of representatives from geography-based districts and national party lists. The former is what helps smaller parties whose support is more diffuse across districts to receive fairer representation in the legislature.
Because of the structural limitations of the UK system, Tories will argue that Reform cost them perhaps dozens of seats. Assuming for the moment that the Survation projection is tomorrow’s result, it is not correct to assume that if Reform threw all of its votes to the Tories that the Conservatives would only pick up seven seats and still be over 370 seats behind Labour. That’s because Reform is likely costing the Tories seats that will be won by the Lib Dems and Labour. It may be true that if Reform voters supported Tories they would see their triple-digit result. There is likely going to be a war on the right after Thursday, which is something Johnson doesn’t want to deal with and why he will probably disappear again until that dust settles.
All this talk of expectations may just be political posturing by politicians and click-baiting by media outfits as the Survation poll that shows the vote tightening also shows Labour beating the Tories by the largest margin in any British government since Churchill’s war-time coalition of 1935. It may be the largest margin any party has ever won as the direct result of a general election in British history. However, looked at that way, if Labour does end up with, say, 66 seats, then something definitely went wrong. At this point, if that happens, it seems more likely that the polling was wrong.
The final polling projection of the campaign will be released at 5:00 PM local time today here in London. If there are any significant changes to the projection or if there are any significant developments in the campaign, I may post later. If not, follow me on Substack Notes and I will at least update you there.
These are seats where a thousand votes or less could decide the winner. UK constituencies contain only about 70,000 people, so small shifts across many districts can result in many seats changing hands.
I have reviewed the Survation data on Sunak’s seat from their poll released yesterday. The poll is discussed later in the post.
I still am not sure whether this term has any definite meaning here in terms of margins. It doesn’t mean anything politically other than having a large enough margin that the party can govern without electoral threat.
Yes, the government turns over immediately once the election is over. There is no months-long transition period like there is in the US. This transition period was not created to provide time to tranfer power but to allow time for the new president and Congress to settle their affairs and travel to the capital in the 18th century. Inauguration Day was originally in March after the election, and the first one was actually held on April 30.
I am sure that happens in the US, but I never hear anyone talking about it as something that can make a difference like they do here.