I know we just got done with an election, but more are on the way. And considering how close things are in this country, they are all important. Here’s what’s coming up in the first quarter(ish) of 2023.
On February 21st there will be a special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District, which includes Richmond and extends south to the North Carolina border. According to the 2020 Census, the district is 44% Black, 42% white, 10% Hispanic, and three percent Asian. The late Rep. Donald McEachin (D) won reelection last November by 30 points. Biden won this district in 2020 by 36 points, Clinton won it in 2016 by 31 points, and Democratic governor candidate McAuliffe won it in 2021 by 23 points (which was in line with the statewide swing from 2020 to 2021). State Senator Jennifer McClellan is the Democratic nominee, having won a firehouse primary1 in December. She will face Republican Leon Benjamin in the general election.
This is a safe Democratic seat, but anything can happen in a special election.
It is fair to assume that Republicans will try a little harder here because (1) it’s the only Congressional election going on right now and (2) they have a four-vote majority with a caucus that is not unified and with one member of the caucus being pressured to resign and facing likely criminal indictments (and even extradition to Brazil!). If you can make some calls, send some texts, or knock some doors (or donate some cash) you can help make sure this seat stays in Democratic hands. It’s also good practice for upcoming elections – always helps to stay limber and improve your skills.
The next election is not a special election, but it is important. Although it might not seem like it at first glance. It’s a state supreme court race in Wisconsin. And it could make the difference in the way elections are run in Wisconsin, which in turn could have a serious impact on the 2024 presidential race.
The top-two primary will be held on February 21st and the general election on April 4th in the officially nonpartisan race. Despite the nonpartisan nature of the election, the Wisconsin Supreme Court currently has a 4-3 conservative majority. Conservative Judge Pat Roggensack, who is 82, is not running for reelection (her term ends in July). There are four candidates running, two liberals and two conservatives, making it possible that the ideological balance of the court will be decided on February 21st. I will write more about these candidates as the race develops and we get closer to the primary.
According to the Wisconsin State Journal's Alexander Shur, "With the court’s ideological balance up for grabs, the candidate elected in April will play a decisive role in upcoming cases that may include the legality of Wisconsin’s near-complete 1849 abortion ban, fights over legislative redistricting and the power of the executive branch in administering laws." As Shur notes, this election is important for plenty of things, but in the immediate term it is especially important to prevent the court from engaging in right-wing mischief around the 2024 election.
Finally, there is an outside chance we could have another special election, this time in New York. Chameleon, grifter, and meme Zelig Rep. George Santos (R) is under pressure from local Republicans to resign and facing multiple criminal investigations as more revelations are made seemingly every day about his duplicitous and criminal behavior. If he is forced to resign or is expelled, there will be a special election. (Expulsion might only happen if he is indicted, but considering the small margin in the House I find it hard to see a cynical and craven Speaker Kevin McCarthy [R-CA] even allowing a vote on it.) This seat was a pick-up for Republicans by a guy who has apparently lied to everyone about everything (and is wanted for fraud by Brazil) - something that was actually reported by a local newspaper during the campaign, which suggests how poorly New York Democrats screwed up in 2022. Winning this seat back would reduce the GOP majority to three seats. Santos has reportedly lied on his financial disclosure statement for Congress, which is a federal crime. He is being criminally investigated by state and federal prosecutors.
PROGRAM NOTE: I promised a post on donation strategy for 2023. It’s coming; hopefully next week.
A firehouse primary is a primary that is run by a political party rather than by the state. The name comes from using community spaces, such as firehouses, to gather for voting. The Commonwealth of Virginia did not supervise the Democratic primary for this special election. This was a lot more common in the past than it is now.