Sitemap - 2024 - Margin of Error Blog

Note to Democrats: Organizing Matters

Are We Finally At This Point? Capitalist Greed and Violent Pushback

A Few Recommendations for Giving Tuesday: Build It! Move It! Protect It!

Irish Elections and Some Ideas the US Could Adopt

The Polls Were Right

Conspiracy Theories and the Election

Reflections on the Democratic Party After the Election

Final Day of the Campaign: What the Latest is Telling Us

More Reasons to be Optimistic

Some Reflections on the Last Day of Early Voting in Philly

Some Reasons to be Optimistic About Next Tuesday

Does GOTV Work?

Supporting GOTV Canvassing

Battleground State Early Voting Analysis as We Approach Two Weeks Out

Three Weeks Out: Is The Race Really This Close?

Recalled-vote Weighting: The Most Important Methodological Challenge in the 2024 Polling

Should You Worry About the Polls?

Is Jon Tester Really the Democrats' Only Hope to Hold onto the Senate? (also: a follow-up to yesterday's post)

Is That Really Plausible? Gut Checking the Polls

What the Post-Debate Polling Landscape Looks Like

Debate Reaction and Polling Impacts

Notes from APSA: Election Forecasting for 2024

Florida and Texas: Rising Battlefields?

Trifecta Adjustment: Pennsylvania Looks to Be Close All Around

It's September! Time to Start Paying Attention

Trump is Losing: Where the Polling Stands at the Close of the DNC

Where Are the Trifecta States for Traveling Volunteers This Year?

What is Trump Doing in Georgia?

Democracy is Under Stealth Attack by Republicans

Monday Election Update

It’s Been Long Enough: Harris Has Momentum in the Polls

Who is going to be the Democratic VP nominee?

One Data Point Told Us Biden was in Big Trouble

Can Biden Win in November? A Look At the Polling Averages

Biden Withdrawal Appears Likely This Weekend

Can Biden Win in November?

The Republican Front Wins in France: So, Was the Polling Wrong?

BREAKING: The Left Tops Neofascist RN in French Exit Polls

France: Last Hour Before the Polls Close

Who Are These Pollsters Biden Is Talking To?

The Polls Were Not Wrong: Labour Crushes the Tories

Polling Updates in UK and France

French Election: Tactical Withdrawals for an Antifascist Strategy

Are We in The Last Days of Biden’s Reelection Campaign?

UK Election: Boris Johnson Enters the Fray to Stop Labour from Getting a Supermajority, But it May Be Too Late

UK Election: Labour and Tory Campaigns' Internal Polling Seems to Be Consistent with Public Polling

French Election: Thoughts and Reactions to First Round Results

Polling on Next Week's UK and French Elections

Nonprofits Can Help Turn Out Youth Voters

Monday Update: Reasons for Republicans to Worry

Looking at the Youth Vote

Why are Line Warming Bans Problematic?

Traveling Campaign Volunteers: States You Should Be Considering for this Fall

Monday Polling Update

Nonprofit Voter Assistance Efforts at Risk in Wisconsin - plus a few bits of news from New York

Problems for Biden in the Battleground State Polling

Updated Post

Monday Update: Messing Around with Minor Parties

A Few More Interesting Items from the AAPOR conference

The Tories are Down Over 20 Points in the Polling, So Why is Sunak Calling an Election Now?

Notes from AAPOR: Reaching Sub-Groups

Don’t Worry about Maryland: Hogan is Not Going to Win

Monday Program Note (on Tuesday this week)

Some Thoughts on Union Organizing and its Implications for Democratic and democratic Politics

Expanding the Map: Why are the Campaigns Talking about Winning States They (Likely) Won't Win?

Monday Program Note

Notes on Current Polling Challenges

Which Congress Gets to Vote: Clarification to a point made in yesterday's post

Arizona and Wisconsin May Be the Key to a Biden Victory in November

Monday Program Note

New Poll Gives Us Some Hints About What's Going on with the Electorate

What Does Wisconsin's Primary Tell Us About November?

Looking at November: The Presidency

How Strong a Candidate is Trump Right Now?

Looking at November: The Senate Races